Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

12 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Up (52%) · Up at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 52%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$503.99

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 100¢

+59% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 23 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,797

Combined PnL+$28.31

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,716

Combined PnL-$532.3

Up — 52%Down — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 61.3¢	$736.31	$729.29	-$7.02	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 62.5¢	$603.05	$657.82	+$54.78	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 61.1¢	$613.13	$562.27	-$50.86	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 39.2¢	$543.72	$445.67	-$98.04	66% 101086-52956 (154042)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 52.9¢	$378.16	$353.83	-$24.33	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 60.6¢	$321.91	$330.12	+$8.21	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 77¢	$371.85	$294.43	-$77.42	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77¢	$215.51	$222.53	+$7.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.6¢	$156.34	$71.9	-$84.44
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 39.9¢	$446.51	$262.81	-$183.7	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 58.6¢	$160.32	$165.22	+$4.9	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$77.26	$79.99	+$2.73	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 98¢	$74.25	$75	+$0.75	49% 4229-4328 (8557)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 89.4¢	$61.44	$64.84	+$3.4	75% 9921-3320 (13241)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 55.3¢	$73.74	$62.15	-$11.59	52% 21146-19323 (40469)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.3¢	$44.24	$32.4	-$11.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$29.5	$29.75	+$0.25
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$41.76	$49.4	+$7.65	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 64.4¢	$42.33	$45.99	+$3.67	49% 81117-84565 (165682)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 68¢	$34.8	$25.31	-$9.49	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 60¢	$91	$25.05	-$65.95	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$21.71	$21.38	-$0.34	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$15	$16.72	+$1.72	12% 18952-134199 (153151)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 12.3¢	$9.02	$10.69	+$1.67	52% 10487-9495 (19982)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 53¢	$5.3	$5.75	+$0.45	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$2.89	$2.48	-$0.41	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 14.4¢	$6.32	$2.42	-$3.9	58% 63423-46617 (110040)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 60¢	$75	$0.06	-$74.94	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 60¢	$75	$0.06	-$74.94	55% 51720-42173 (93893)

1000monkeys

Invested

$736.31

Value

$729.29

PnL

-$7.02

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

blue.birds

Invested

$603.05

Value

$657.82

PnL

+$54.78

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

asdcaxz

Invested

$613.13

Value

$562.27

PnL

-$50.86

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$543.72

Value

$445.67

PnL

-$98.04

Record

66%

101086-52956 (154042)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$378.16

Value

$353.83

PnL

-$24.33

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$321.91

Value

$330.12

PnL

+$8.21

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$371.85

Value

$294.43

PnL

-$77.42

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

Both legs:

Up$215.5177¢+$7.02

Down$156.3444.6¢-$84.44

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$446.51

Value

$262.81

PnL

-$183.7

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

GoodFallen

Invested

$160.32

Value

$165.22

PnL

+$4.9

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$77.26

Value

$79.99

PnL

+$2.73

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$74.25

Value

$75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

49%

4229-4328 (8557)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$61.44

Value

$64.84

PnL

+$3.4

Record

75%

9921-3320 (13241)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73.74

Value

$62.15

PnL

-$11.59

Record

52%

21146-19323 (40469)

Both legs:

Down$44.2455.3¢-$11.84

Up$29.559¢+$0.25

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$41.76

Value

$49.4

PnL

+$7.65

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$42.33

Value

$45.99

PnL

+$3.67

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.8

Value

$25.31

PnL

-$9.49

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$91

Value

$25.05

PnL

-$65.95

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$21.71

Value

$21.38

PnL

-$0.34

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

$16.72

PnL

+$1.72

Record

12%

18952-134199 (153151)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.02

Value

$10.69

PnL

+$1.67

Record

52%

10487-9495 (19982)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.41

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.32

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$3.9

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$75

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$74.94

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$75

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$74.94

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 23 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.