Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$869.71

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,135

Combined PnL+$151.7

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,272

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 64.7¢	$684.18	$749.28	+$65.1	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 67.5¢	$364.51	$446.5	+$81.98	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$318.35	$365.94	+$47.59	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$193.82	$365.94	+$172.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.7¢	$124.54	—	-$124.54
pspspsps5	Upavg 66.5¢	$375.32	$309.64	-$65.68	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 49.9¢	$193.37	$282.16	+$88.79	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 54.3¢	$205.16	$306.42	+$101.26	66% 101086-52956 (154042)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 52.4¢	$269.98	$284.09	+$14.11	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$148.93	$284.09	+$135.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.3¢	$121.06	—	-$121.06
AL almach	Upavg 92.8¢	$394.57	$218	-$176.57	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 41.6¢	$291.54	—	-$291.54	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 57.6¢	$351.14	—	-$351.14	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 62.8¢	$191.37	$168.62	-$22.75	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 58.6¢	$322.32	—	-$322.32	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$111.01	$93.72	-$17.29	52% 21146-19323 (40469)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$63.37	$93.72	+$30.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.9¢	$47.64	—	-$47.64
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 97¢	$96.03	$99	+$2.97	75% 9921-3320 (13241)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 99.1¢	$161.89	$95	-$66.89	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 75.3¢	$95.36	$115.46	+$20.1	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$71.43	$76.66	+$5.23	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.7¢	$39.64	$76.66	+$37.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.8¢	$31.79	—	-$31.79
ohioism<$100	Upavg 96.3¢	$62.57	$65	+$2.43	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$43.65	$60.81	+$17.16	65% 114714-61743 (176457)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 79.3¢	$32.9	$41.48	+$8.58	57% 9968-7456 (17424)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$32.55	—	-$32.55	61% 98748-62704 (161452)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 96.3¢	$24.07	$25	+$0.93	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$19.75	$31.87	+$12.12	52% 10487-9495 (19982)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 96¢	$26.07	$21	-$5.07	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 40.5¢	$19.32	$40	+$20.68	58% 63423-46617 (110040)

1000monkeys

Invested

$684.18

Value

$749.28

PnL

+$65.1

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

blue.birds

Invested

$364.51

Value

$446.5

PnL

+$81.98

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$318.35

Value

$365.94

PnL

+$47.59

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

Both legs:

Up$193.8253¢+$172.13

Down$124.5435.7¢-$124.54

pspspsps5

Invested

$375.32

Value

$309.64

PnL

-$65.68

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

GoodFallen

Invested

$193.37

Value

$282.16

PnL

+$88.79

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

Bonereaper

Invested

$205.16

Value

$306.42

PnL

+$101.26

Record

66%

101086-52956 (154042)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$269.98

Value

$284.09

PnL

+$14.11

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

Both legs:

Up$148.9352.4¢+$135.16

Down$121.0668.3¢-$121.06

almach

Invested

$394.57

Value

$218

PnL

-$176.57

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$291.54

Value

—

PnL

-$291.54

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$351.14

Value

—

PnL

-$351.14

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$191.37

Value

$168.62

PnL

-$22.75

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$322.32

Value

—

PnL

-$322.32

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$111.01

Value

$93.72

PnL

-$17.29

Record

52%

21146-19323 (40469)

Both legs:

Up$63.3767.6¢+$30.35

Down$47.6440.9¢-$47.64

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$96.03

Value

$99

PnL

+$2.97

Record

75%

9921-3320 (13241)

asdaefef

Invested

$161.89

Value

$95

PnL

-$66.89

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$95.36

Value

$115.46

PnL

+$20.1

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$71.43

Value

$76.66

PnL

+$5.23

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

Both legs:

Up$39.6451.7¢+$37.02

Down$31.7955.8¢-$31.79

ohioism<$100

Invested

$62.57

Value

$65

PnL

+$2.43

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$43.65

Value

$60.81

PnL

+$17.16

Record

65%

114714-61743 (176457)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$32.9

Value

$41.48

PnL

+$8.58

Record

57%

9968-7456 (17424)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.55

Value

—

PnL

-$32.55

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$24.07

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.93

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$19.75

Value

$31.87

PnL

+$12.12

Record

52%

10487-9495 (19982)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$26.07

Value

$21

PnL

-$5.07

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$19.32

Value

$40

PnL

+$20.68

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x798612f0...664f52

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794045300

Traders in this Market

1000monkeys

Up — $749.28

+$65.1

blue.birds

Up — $446.5

+$81.98

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$47.59

pspspsps5

Up — $309.64

-$65.68

GoodFallen

Up — $282.16

+$88.79

Bonereaper

Up — $306.42

+$101.26

asdcaxz

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$14.11

almach

Up — $218

machinelearned

Down — $0

mo-money

Down — $0