Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Down (77%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$99.46

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,796

Combined PnL-$89.13

Up5 traders

Total Value$114.29

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$10.34

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$7.68	49% 10685-11336 (22021)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 72.3¢	$374.09	$360.18	-$13.91	66% 101096-52964 (154060)
machinelearned	Downavg 77.8¢	$365.13	$358.11	-$7.02	55% 9912-8220 (18132)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 68.6¢	$396.69	$286.19	-$110.5	58% 39891-28840 (68731)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$291.33	$272.76	-$18.57	59% 11369-7824 (19193)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$182.87	$203.56	+$20.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.5¢	$108.46	$69.2	-$39.26
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$291.24	$264.4	-$26.84	48% 6777-7423 (14200)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.7¢	$187.35	$197.43	+$10.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.6¢	$103.88	$66.97	-$36.91
pspspsps5	Downavg 71.3¢	$175.23	$215.29	+$40.06	45% 40271-48253 (88524)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 64.3¢	$182.46	$195.18	+$12.72	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$126.03	$145.95	+$19.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$56.43	$49.23	-$7.2
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$212.18	$191.29	-$20.89	51% 12277-11765 (24042)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.9¢	$168.11	$152.45	-$15.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.6¢	$44.07	$38.84	-$5.23
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$187.84	$187.73	-$0.11	59% 63938-45089 (109027)
AL almach	Downavg 63¢	$80	$125	+$45	55% 50270-41870 (92140)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 37.7¢	$115.82	$95.41	-$20.41	54% 16627-14068 (30695)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.9¢	$50.08	$49.15	-$0.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.7¢	$65.74	$46.26	-$19.48
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 94¢	$87.11	$69.01	-$18.1	66% 130853-67700 (198553)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 94.5¢	$87.08	$68.67	-$18.41	61% 98777-62719 (161496)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 35.3¢	$35.24	$50.49	+$15.25	49% 4239-4335 (8574)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$48.23	$40.01	-$8.23	55% 15032-12453 (27485)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Upavg 39.4¢	$49.6	$38.67	-$10.94	52% 10497-9502 (19999)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 75¢	$22.14	$28.18	+$6.04	52% 10611-9950 (20561)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$20.99	$16.74	-$4.25	52% 21152-19329 (40481)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$19.87	$14.35	-$5.52	65% 114739-61779 (176518)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$13.59	$13.02	-$0.57	55% 51918-43034 (94952)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$10.87	$11.24	+$0.37	49% 81148-84583 (165731)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$11.49	$10.12	-$1.37	58% 63445-46638 (110083)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$14.68	$9.9	-$4.78	57% 9974-7459 (17433)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 44.7¢	$11.18	$8.38	-$2.8	56% 60702-47212 (107914)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$1,554.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$7.68

Record

49%

10685-11336 (22021)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$374.09

Value

$360.18

PnL

-$13.91

Record

66%

101096-52964 (154060)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$365.13

Value

$358.11

PnL

-$7.02

Record

55%

9912-8220 (18132)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$396.69

Value

$286.19

PnL

-$110.5

Record

58%

39891-28840 (68731)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$291.33

Value

$272.76

PnL

-$18.57

Record

59%

11369-7824 (19193)

Both legs:

Down$182.8766¢+$20.69

Up$108.4641.5¢-$39.26

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$291.24

Value

$264.4

PnL

-$26.84

Record

48%

6777-7423 (14200)

Both legs:

Down$187.3570.7¢+$10.07

Up$103.8839.6¢-$36.91

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$175.23

Value

$215.29

PnL

+$40.06

Record

45%

40271-48253 (88524)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$182.46

Value

$195.18

PnL

+$12.72

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

Both legs:

Down$126.0364.3¢+$19.92

Up$56.4329.2¢-$7.2

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$212.18

Value

$191.29

PnL

-$20.89

Record

51%

12277-11765 (24042)

Both legs:

Down$168.1168.9¢-$15.66

Up$44.0742.6¢-$5.23

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$187.84

Value

$187.73

PnL

-$0.11

Record

59%

63938-45089 (109027)

almach

Down

Invested

$80

Value

$125

PnL

+$45

Record

55%

50270-41870 (92140)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$115.82

Value

$95.41

PnL

-$20.41

Record

54%

16627-14068 (30695)

Both legs:

Down$50.0874.9¢-$0.93

Up$65.7437.7¢-$19.48

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$87.11

Value

$69.01

PnL

-$18.1

Record

66%

130853-67700 (198553)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$87.08

Value

$68.67

PnL

-$18.41

Record

61%

98777-62719 (161496)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

$35.24

Value

$50.49

PnL

+$15.25

Record

49%

4239-4335 (8574)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$48.23

Value

$40.01

PnL

-$8.23

Record

55%

15032-12453 (27485)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$38.67

PnL

-$10.94

Record

52%

10497-9502 (19999)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$22.14

Value

$28.18

PnL

+$6.04

Record

52%

10611-9950 (20561)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$20.99

Value

$16.74

PnL

-$4.25

Record

52%

21152-19329 (40481)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$19.87

Value

$14.35

PnL

-$5.52

Record

65%

114739-61779 (176518)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$13.59

Value

$13.02

PnL

-$0.57

Record

55%

51918-43034 (94952)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$10.87

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

81148-84583 (165731)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$11.49

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$1.37

Record

58%

63445-46638 (110083)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$14.68

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$4.78

Record

57%

9974-7459 (17433)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$11.18

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$2.8

Record

56%

60702-47212 (107914)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.