Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Up (79%) · Up at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Up56¢Down44¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$17.8

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 56¢

-10% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up56%

Down44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$153.66

Total Shares280

Combined PnL+$19.26

Up15 traders

Total Value$386.12

Total Shares623

Combined PnL-$37.06

Down — 21%Up — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$244.88	$237.56	-$7.32	59% 11369-7824 (19193)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.5¢	$131.18	$119.55	-$11.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$113.7	$118.01	+$4.31
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 47.3¢	$252.43	$212.42	-$40	51% 12277-11765 (24042)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$130.06	$121.06	-$9
└ Up leg	Upavg 75¢	$122.37	$91.36	-$31.01
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 68.6¢	$230.2	$205.19	-$25.01	55% 9912-8220 (18132)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.6¢	$182.84	$149.29	-$33.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$47.36	$55.9	+$8.54
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 68.2¢	$133.37	$130.01	-$3.36	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.2¢	$83.37	$68.42	-$14.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.7¢	$50	$61.59	+$11.6
AS asdcaxzCTR	Downavg 34¢	$87.47	$108.39	+$20.92	48% 6777-7423 (14200)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 67¢	$94.94	$80.93	-$14.01	66% 101096-52964 (154060)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 57¢	$71.25	$70	-$1.25	55% 51799-42233 (94032)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$38.55	$34.83	-$3.72	58% 63445-46638 (110083)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 67¢	$42.03	$34.81	-$7.21	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$32.9	$34.45	+$1.55	54% 16627-14068 (30695)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$30.01	$30.75	+$0.74	65% 114739-61779 (176518)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 76¢	$37.99	$25.25	-$12.75	54% 13734-11729 (25463)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 64¢	$26	$25	-$1	52% 10611-9950 (20561)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 40¢	$12.47	$24.15	+$11.69	12% 18959-134205 (153164)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$15.22	$15.15	-$0.07	55% 15032-12453 (27485)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$18.59	$12.63	-$5.97	63% 42565-25291 (67856)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 66¢	$12.48	$10.5	-$1.98	66% 130853-67700 (198553)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 57¢	$8.62	$8.47	-$0.15	55% 50270-41870 (92140)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$8.71	$8.33	-$0.38	65% 130517-70309 (200826)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$7.06	$6.64	-$0.41	57% 9974-7459 (17433)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 37.6¢	$6.97	$4.17	-$2.8	61% 98777-62719 (161496)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 57¢	$4.06	$3.81	-$0.25	49% 4239-4335 (8574)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 75¢	$2.25	$1.52	-$0.73	56% 60702-47212 (107914)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$244.88

Value

$237.56

PnL

-$7.32

Record

59%

11369-7824 (19193)

Both legs:

Up$131.1861.5¢-$11.64

Down$113.742.4¢+$4.31

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$252.43

Value

$212.42

PnL

-$40

Record

51%

12277-11765 (24042)

Both legs:

Down$130.0647.3¢-$9

Up$122.3775¢-$31.01

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$230.2

Value

$205.19

PnL

-$25.01

Record

55%

9912-8220 (18132)

Both legs:

Up$182.8468.6¢-$33.55

Down$47.3637.3¢+$8.54

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$133.37

Value

$130.01

PnL

-$3.36

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

Both legs:

Invested

$87.47

Value

$108.39

PnL

+$20.92

Record

48%

6777-7423 (14200)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$94.94

Value

$80.93

PnL

-$14.01

Record

66%

101096-52964 (154060)

bosona<$100

Invested

$71.25

Value

$70

PnL

-$1.25

Record

55%

51799-42233 (94032)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$38.55

Value

$34.83

PnL

-$3.72

Record

58%

63445-46638 (110083)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$42.03

Value

$34.81

PnL

-$7.21

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.9

Value

$34.45

PnL

+$1.55

Record

54%

16627-14068 (30695)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$30.01

Value

$30.75

PnL

+$0.74

Record

65%

114739-61779 (176518)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$37.99

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$12.75

Record

54%

13734-11729 (25463)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$25

PnL

-$1

Record

52%

10611-9950 (20561)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$12.47

Value

$24.15

PnL

+$11.69

Record

12%

18959-134205 (153164)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$15.22

Value

$15.15

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

15032-12453 (27485)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$18.59

Value

$12.63

PnL

-$5.97

Record

63%

42565-25291 (67856)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$12.48

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$1.98

Record

66%

130853-67700 (198553)

almach<$100

Invested

$8.62

Value

$8.47

PnL

-$0.15

Record

55%

50270-41870 (92140)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.71

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$0.38

Record

65%

130517-70309 (200826)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.06

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$0.41

Record

57%

9974-7459 (17433)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.97

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$2.8

Record

61%

98777-62719 (161496)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$4.06

Value

$3.81

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

4239-4335 (8574)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.73

Record

56%

60702-47212 (107914)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.