Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$354.78

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 28 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,457

Combined PnL+$609.37

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares462

Combined PnL-$254.58

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 60.6¢	$685	$739.27	+$54.27	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 66.6¢	$704.38	$711.31	+$6.93	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
machinelearned	Downavg 50.6¢	$281.06	$450	+$168.94	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 52.8¢	$313.41	$412.25	+$98.84	66% 101086-52956 (154042)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 54¢	$390.18	$596.98	+$206.8	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 73¢	$410.91	$374.06	-$36.85	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
BO bosona	Downavg 84.1¢	$241.09	$226.18	-$14.91	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
AL almach	Downavg 85.2¢	$195.98	$192.12	-$3.86	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$170.88	$138.9	-$31.98	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$70.67	$138.9	+$68.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$100.21	—	-$100.21
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 56.3¢	$120.11	$149.46	+$29.35	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
MO mo-money	Downavg 85.8¢	$129.39	$148.91	+$19.52	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 50¢	$87.46	$131.46	+$44	52% 10487-9495 (19982)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$87.18	$99.52	+$12.34	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 75.2¢	$105.56	$103.89	-$0.65	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$70.24	$84.76	+$14.52	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 45.4¢	$177.47	$38.9	-$138.57	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90¢	$35.01	$38.9	+$3.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$142.46	—	-$142.46
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$42.97	—	-$42.97	52% 21146-19323 (40469)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Upavg 40.9¢	$92.86	—	-$92.86	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$15.33	—	-$15.33	12% 18952-134199 (153151)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$38.33	—	-$38.33	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 35.2¢	$24.87	—	-$24.87	49% 4229-4328 (8557)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$12.04	—	-$12.04	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 78.7¢	$19.77	$21.1	+$2.96	61% 98748-62704 (161452)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 49¢	$6.65	$13.58	+$6.93	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$13.73	—	-$13.73	49% 81117-84565 (165682)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$685

Value

$739.27

PnL

+$54.27

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$704.38

Value

$711.31

PnL

+$6.93

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$281.06

Value

$450

PnL

+$168.94

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$313.41

Value

$412.25

PnL

+$98.84

Record

66%

101086-52956 (154042)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$390.18

Value

$596.98

PnL

+$206.8

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$410.91

Value

$374.06

PnL

-$36.85

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

bosona

Down

Invested

$241.09

Value

$226.18

PnL

-$14.91

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

almach

Down

Invested

$195.98

Value

$192.12

PnL

-$3.86

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$170.88

Value

$138.9

PnL

-$31.98

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

Both legs:

Down$70.6750.9¢+$68.23

Up$100.2130.5¢-$100.21

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$120.11

Value

$149.46

PnL

+$29.35

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$129.39

Value

$148.91

PnL

+$19.52

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$87.46

Value

$131.46

PnL

+$44

Record

52%

10487-9495 (19982)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$87.18

Value

$99.52

PnL

+$12.34

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$105.56

Value

$103.89

PnL

-$0.65

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$70.24

Value

$84.76

PnL

+$14.52

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$177.47

Value

$38.9

PnL

-$138.57

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

Both legs:

Down$35.0190¢+$3.89

Up$142.4645.4¢-$142.46

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$42.97

Value

—

PnL

-$42.97

Record

52%

21146-19323 (40469)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Invested

$92.86

Value

—

PnL

-$92.86

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$15.33

Value

—

PnL

-$15.33

Record

12%

18952-134199 (153151)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$38.33

Value

—

PnL

-$38.33

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

$24.87

Value

—

PnL

-$24.87

Record

49%

4229-4328 (8557)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$12.04

Value

—

PnL

-$12.04

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$19.77

Value

$21.1

PnL

+$2.96

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$6.65

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$6.93

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$13.73

Value

—

PnL

-$13.73

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 28 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x8e4b8909...e0bfea

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794044700

Traders in this Market

1000monkeys

Down — $739.27

+$54.27

asdcaxz

Down — $711.31

+$6.93

machinelearned

Down — $450

+$168.94

Bonereaper

Down — $412.25

+$98.84

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $596.98

+$206.8

blue.birds

Down — $374.06

-$36.85

bosona

Down — $226.18

-$14.91

almach

Down — $192.12

-$3.86

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$31.98

GoodFallen

Down — $149.46

+$29.35

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