Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

23 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Down (85%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$493.26

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 99.5¢

+22% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 27 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,327

Combined PnL-$455.32

Up4 traders

Total Value$352

Total Shares460

Combined PnL-$37.94

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$12.5	74% 105140-37106 (142246)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99.1¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$640.44	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 58.7¢	$560.37	$564.45	+$4.08	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
machinelearned	Downavg 52.8¢	$420.28	$543.43	+$123.15	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 57.4¢	$440	$449.3	+$9.3	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$327.51	$321.74	-$5.77	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.5¢	$171.09	$255.7	+$84.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$156.42	$66.04	-$90.38
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$421.97	$300.3	-$121.67	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$182.45	$217.04	+$34.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$239.52	$83.26	-$156.26
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 51.1¢	$217.6	$244.06	+$26.45	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 66.9¢	$258.27	$225.63	-$32.64	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 59¢	$184.09	$172.07	-$12.03	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
AL almach	Downavg 92.3¢	$149.89	$145.8	-$4.09	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
ohioism	Downavg 92.5¢	$109.52	$100.03	-$9.49	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$77.16	$91.58	+$14.42	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 54.4¢	$66.33	$82.12	+$15.79	52% 10487-9495 (19982)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 69¢	$95.71	$80.27	-$15.44	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$65.99	$68.75	+$5.07	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$37.38	$33.8	-$3.58	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$35.57	$31.35	-$4.23	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$31.37	$30.29	-$1.07	49% 81117-84565 (165682)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 91.5¢	$25.24	$23.3	-$1.94	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$15.14	$20.9	+$5.75	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 32.5¢	$15.72	$19.11	+$3.39	65% 114714-61743 (176457)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$19.5	$18.6	-$0.9	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4.5¢	$4.59	$15.81	+$11.22	59% 63933-45082 (109015)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 32.5¢	$12.2	$13.87	+$1.68	52% 21146-19323 (40469)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,475.52

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

74%

105140-37106 (142246)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$1,643.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$640.44

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$560.37

Value

$564.45

PnL

+$4.08

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$420.28

Value

$543.43

PnL

+$123.15

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$440

Value

$449.3

PnL

+$9.3

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$327.51

Value

$321.74

PnL

-$5.77

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

Both legs:

Down$171.0956.5¢+$84.61

Up$156.4236.7¢-$90.38

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$421.97

Value

$300.3

PnL

-$121.67

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

Both legs:

Down$182.4564.3¢+$34.59

Up$239.5267.6¢-$156.26

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$217.6

Value

$244.06

PnL

+$26.45

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$258.27

Value

$225.63

PnL

-$32.64

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$184.09

Value

$172.07

PnL

-$12.03

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

almach

Down

Invested

$149.89

Value

$145.8

PnL

-$4.09

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$109.52

Value

$100.03

PnL

-$9.49

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$77.16

Value

$91.58

PnL

+$14.42

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$66.33

Value

$82.12

PnL

+$15.79

Record

52%

10487-9495 (19982)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$95.71

Value

$80.27

PnL

-$15.44

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$65.99

Value

$68.75

PnL

+$5.07

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$37.38

Value

$33.8

PnL

-$3.58

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$35.57

Value

$31.35

PnL

-$4.23

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$31.37

Value

$30.29

PnL

-$1.07

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$25.24

Value

$23.3

PnL

-$1.94

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$15.14

Value

$20.9

PnL

+$5.75

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$15.72

Value

$19.11

PnL

+$3.39

Record

65%

114714-61743 (176457)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$19.5

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$0.9

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

$15.81

PnL

+$11.22

Record

59%

63933-45082 (109015)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$12.2

Value

$13.87

PnL

+$1.68

Record

52%

21146-19323 (40469)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 27 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.