Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (47%) · Up at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Up80¢Down20¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$18.52

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 79.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up80%

Down21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$596.88

Total Shares760

Combined PnL-$12.89

Down8 traders

Total Value$161.79

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$5.63

Up — 47%Down — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$216.73	$223.69	+$6.95	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$137.71	$153.69	+$15.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$79.03	$69.99	-$9.03
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 72.4¢	$148.92	$151.12	+$2.2	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 76.2¢	$136.97	$134.42	-$2.55	66% 101086-52956 (154042)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 81¢	$116.45	$114.39	-$2.06	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 73.7¢	$114.78	$108.28	-$6.5	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 26.1¢	$104.76	$99.07	-$5.69	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.4¢	$50.95	$56.72	+$5.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.1¢	$53.81	$42.34	-$11.46
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Upavg 70¢	$73.5	$75	+$1.5	49% 4229-4328 (8557)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$52.5	$37.88	-$14.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$21	$37.13	+$16.13
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 24.4¢	$53.04	$55.43	+$2.39	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 83¢	$41.52	$39.75	-$1.77	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100	Downavg 24.7¢	$40.32	$36.6	-$3.72	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 70.7¢	$30.65	$30.29	-$0.36	52% 10487-9495 (19982)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$20.2	$22.41	+$2.21	12% 18952-134199 (153151)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Downavg 28.5¢	$25.2	$20.25	-$4.95	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$20.47	$18.63	-$1.85	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$9.74	$10.24	+$0.5	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 30.4¢	$7.61	$6.88	-$0.74	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$7.68	$6.56	-$1.12	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 21.7¢	$3.63	$3.42	-$0.21	49% 81117-84565 (165682)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$216.73

Value

$223.69

PnL

+$6.95

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

Both legs:

Up$137.7165¢+$15.98

Down$79.0331¢-$9.03

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$148.92

Value

$151.12

PnL

+$2.2

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

Bonereaper

Invested

$136.97

Value

$134.42

PnL

-$2.55

Record

66%

101086-52956 (154042)

blue.birds

Invested

$116.45

Value

$114.39

PnL

-$2.06

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

asdcaxz

Invested

$114.78

Value

$108.28

PnL

-$6.5

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.76

Value

$99.07

PnL

-$5.69

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

Both legs:

Up$50.9571.4¢+$5.78

Down$53.8126.1¢-$11.46

PapeasyARB<$100

Invested

$73.5

Value

$75

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

4229-4328 (8557)

Both legs:

Invested

$53.04

Value

$55.43

PnL

+$2.39

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$41.52

Value

$39.75

PnL

-$1.77

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.32

Value

$36.6

PnL

-$3.72

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$30.65

Value

$30.29

PnL

-$0.36

Record

52%

10487-9495 (19982)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.2

Value

$22.41

PnL

+$2.21

Record

12%

18952-134199 (153151)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.2

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$4.95

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$20.47

Value

$18.63

PnL

-$1.85

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.74

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.61

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$0.74

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.68

Value

$6.56

PnL

-$1.12

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.63

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$0.21

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.6%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.