Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 78%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$767.61
Smart Money Signal
21 of 29 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 65.2¢ | $492.91 | $464.71 | -$28.2 | 48% 6746-7394 (14140) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 61.7¢ | $379.44 | $417.05 | +$37.61 | 59% 11357-7812 (19169) |
 pspspsps5CTR | Upavg 29.2¢ | $167.3 | — | -$167.3 | 45% 40240-48232 (88472) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 23.6¢ | $202.69 | $204.1 | +$1.41 | 55% 9903-8211 (18114) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.7¢ | $66.81 | $204.1 | +$137.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.6¢ | $135.88 | — | -$135.88 | |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 38.3¢ | $276.41 | $426.94 | +$150.52 | 66% 101086-52956 (154042) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.8¢ | $112.91 | — | -$112.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.3¢ | $163.5 | $426.94 | +$263.44 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 44.5¢ | $237.97 | — | -$237.97 | 51% 12246-11736 (23982) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.3¢ | $88.41 | — | -$88.41 | 54% 16619-14058 (30677) |
PA Papeasy | Downavg 87.5¢ | $131.24 | $149.99 | +$18.75 | 49% 4229-4328 (8557) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 88.7¢ | $113.42 | $127.8 | +$14.38 | 12% 18952-134199 (153151) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $50.52 | $59.89 | +$9.38 | 55% 50268-41869 (92137) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $43.11 | $55.75 | +$12.64 | 65% 130470-70278 (200748) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $65.12 | $40.34 | -$24.78 | 55% 52367-42838 (95205) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $97.8 | $89.86 | -$7.94 | 56% 60679-47194 (107873) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $18.4 | $32 | +$13.6 | 52% 10487-9495 (19982) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $18.42 | $31.47 | +$13.05 | 55% 15019-12448 (27467) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $26.49 | $31.04 | +$4.55 | 54% 13726-11723 (25449) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 92.7¢ | $34.5 | $30 | -$4.5 | 55% 51720-42173 (93893) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 86.3¢ | $21.57 | — | -$21.57 | 63% 42543-25276 (67819) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $65.98 | $89 | +$23.03 | 66% 130798-67676 (198474) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $10.04 | $16 | +$5.96 | 52% 10599-9947 (20546) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $32.33 | $47.16 | +$14.83 | 57% 9968-7456 (17424) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 21.3¢ | $11.24 | $52.69 | +$41.45 | 49% 81117-84565 (165682) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $4.24 | $8.68 | +$4.44 | 55% 51661-42835 (94496) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 24.2¢ | $6.06 | $25 | +$18.94 | 58% 63423-46617 (110040) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 85.9¢ | $24 | $27.94 | +$3.94 | 61% 98748-62704 (161452) |
Invested
$492.91
Value
$464.71
PnL
-$28.2
Record
48%
6746-7394 (14140)
Invested
$379.44
Value
$417.05
PnL
+$37.61
Record
59%
11357-7812 (19169)
pspspsps5CTRInvested
$167.3
Value
—
PnL
-$167.3
Record
45%
40240-48232 (88472)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$202.69
Value
$204.1
PnL
+$1.41
Record
55%
9903-8211 (18114)
Both legs:
Invested
$276.41
Value
$426.94
PnL
+$150.52
Record
66%
101086-52956 (154042)
Both legs:
Invested
$237.97
Value
—
PnL
-$237.97
Record
51%
12246-11736 (23982)
Invested
$88.41
Value
—
PnL
-$88.41
Record
54%
16619-14058 (30677)
Invested
$131.24
Value
$149.99
PnL
+$18.75
Record
49%
4229-4328 (8557)
Invested
$113.42
Value
$127.8
PnL
+$14.38
Record
12%
18952-134199 (153151)
Invested
$50.52
Value
$59.89
PnL
+$9.38
Record
55%
50268-41869 (92137)
Invested
$43.11
Value
$55.75
PnL
+$12.64
Record
65%
130470-70278 (200748)
Invested
$65.12
Value
$40.34
PnL
-$24.78
Record
55%
52367-42838 (95205)
Invested
$97.8
Value
$89.86
PnL
-$7.94
Record
56%
60679-47194 (107873)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$32
PnL
+$13.6
Record
52%
10487-9495 (19982)
Invested
$18.42
Value
$31.47
PnL
+$13.05
Record
55%
15019-12448 (27467)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$26.49
Value
$31.04
PnL
+$4.55
Record
54%
13726-11723 (25449)
Invested
$34.5
Value
$30
PnL
-$4.5
Record
55%
51720-42173 (93893)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$21.57
Value
—
PnL
-$21.57
Record
63%
42543-25276 (67819)
Invested
$65.98
Value
$89
PnL
+$23.03
Record
66%
130798-67676 (198474)
Invested
$10.04
Value
$16
PnL
+$5.96
Record
52%
10599-9947 (20546)
Invested
$32.33
Value
$47.16
PnL
+$14.83
Record
57%
9968-7456 (17424)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$11.24
Value
$52.69
PnL
+$41.45
Record
49%
81117-84565 (165682)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.24
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$4.44
Record
55%
51661-42835 (94496)
Invested
$6.06
Value
$25
PnL
+$18.94
Record
58%
63423-46617 (110040)
Invested
$24
Value
$27.94
PnL
+$3.94
Record
61%
98748-62704 (161452)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
asdcaxz
Down — $464.71
1000monkeys
Down — $417.05
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
Papeasy
Down — $149.99
Hsilverbasher
Down — $127.8
almach
Down — $59.89