Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

15 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$105.63

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 24 top traders (63%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,376

Combined PnL+$135.02

Down9 traders

Total Value$380.33

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL-$240.65

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 72.7¢	$364.11	$337.33	-$26.78	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
pspspsps5	Upavg 66.8¢	$200.9	$272.91	+$72.02	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 64.3¢	$242.66	$250.86	+$8.2	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 32.8¢	$368.93	$243.06	-$125.87	66% 101086-52956 (154042)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.8¢	$208.43	$227.49	+$19.06	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
AL almach	Upavg 83.7¢	$140.07	$167.17	+$27.1	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
BO bosona	Upavg 83.4¢	$131.84	$158.06	+$26.22	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 76.5¢	$153.99	$156.38	+$2.39	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
machinelearned	Upavg 72.8¢	$162.27	$143.74	-$18.53	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
MO mo-money	Upavg 82.9¢	$116.19	$140.1	+$23.91	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 76.2¢	$107.3	$110.77	+$3.48	58% 63423-46617 (110040)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$84.96	$96.39	+$11.43	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$36.66	$42.24	+$5.58	49% 81117-84565 (165682)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100	Downavg 22.4¢	$58.21	$34.23	-$23.98	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 95.6¢	$34.43	$33.3	-$1.13	61% 98748-62704 (161452)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Downavg 39.1¢	$75.25	$30.06	-$45.19	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$38.2	$30.01	-$8.19	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 85¢	$39.25	$25.01	-$14.24	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$20.79	$17.12	-$3.67	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$11	$12.38	+$1.38	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 46.4¢	$27.66	$12.2	-$15.46	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 37.7¢	$24.49	$10.08	-$14.42	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$7.1	$5.02	-$2.08	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$10.15	$3.3	-$6.85	65% 114714-61743 (176457)

1000monkeys

Invested

$364.11

Value

$337.33

PnL

-$26.78

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

pspspsps5

Invested

$200.9

Value

$272.91

PnL

+$72.02

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$242.66

Value

$250.86

PnL

+$8.2

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$368.93

Value

$243.06

PnL

-$125.87

Record

66%

101086-52956 (154042)

blue.birds

Invested

$208.43

Value

$227.49

PnL

+$19.06

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

almach

Invested

$140.07

Value

$167.17

PnL

+$27.1

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

bosona

Invested

$131.84

Value

$158.06

PnL

+$26.22

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

asdcaxz

Invested

$153.99

Value

$156.38

PnL

+$2.39

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

machinelearned

Invested

$162.27

Value

$143.74

PnL

-$18.53

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

mo-money

Invested

$116.19

Value

$140.1

PnL

+$23.91

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$107.3

Value

$110.77

PnL

+$3.48

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$84.96

Value

$96.39

PnL

+$11.43

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$36.66

Value

$42.24

PnL

+$5.58

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.21

Value

$34.23

PnL

-$23.98

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$34.43

Value

$33.3

PnL

-$1.13

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$75.25

Value

$30.06

PnL

-$45.19

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.2

Value

$30.01

PnL

-$8.19

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$39.25

Value

$25.01

PnL

-$14.24

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$20.79

Value

$17.12

PnL

-$3.67

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$1.38

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.66

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$15.46

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.49

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$14.42

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.1

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$2.08

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.15

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$6.85

Record

65%

114714-61743 (176457)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 24 top traders (63%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.