Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Up (68%) · Up at 77¢ · $920 held · ends Nov 7

Up77¢Down23¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$920

Combined PnL

-$13.22

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 76.5¢

+17% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up77%

Down24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$466.14

Total Shares735

Combined PnL-$23.21

Down6 traders

Total Value$216.62

Total Shares472

Combined PnL+$9.99

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 61.9¢	$136.76	$126.97	-$9.79	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 53.2¢	$115.21	$112.79	-$2.42	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.2¢	$85.82	$84.72	-$1.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$29.4	$28.07	-$1.33
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 37.5¢	$97.06	$109.99	+$12.93	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 74¢	$92.5	$95.63	+$3.13	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$53.54	$66.52	+$12.98	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$39.31	$41.02	+$1.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.7¢	$14.23	$25.5	+$11.27
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 47.5¢	$72.66	$57.93	-$14.73	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.4¢	$22.76	$31.16	+$8.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.5¢	$49.9	$26.78	-$23.13
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$54.18	$55.5	+$1.32	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$46.1	$48.43	+$2.32	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$42.29	$42.05	-$0.24	52% 10477-9488 (19965)
10 1000monkeysCTR<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$28.02	$27.8	-$0.22	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$34.06	$25.73	-$8.33	65% 130448-70263 (200711)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 74¢	$23.3	$23.45	+$0.16	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$24.99	$22.54	-$2.45	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 61¢	$22.62	$21.32	-$1.3	61% 46186-29359 (75545)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 74¢	$27.25	$21.18	-$6.08	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 44¢	$17.72	$18.68	+$0.95	52% 10594-9935 (20529)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 62¢	$14.88	$13.8	-$1.08	52% 21140-19314 (40454)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$9.2	$9.4	+$0.2	58% 63404-46606 (110010)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 80.2¢	$9.74	$6.99	-$2.75	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$5.07	$4.85	-$0.23	65% 114692-61718 (176410)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 80.2¢	$6.49	$4.66	-$1.84	61% 98731-62694 (161425)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.83	+$0.08	55% 51661-42835 (94496)

Bonereaper

Invested

$136.76

Value

$126.97

PnL

-$9.79

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$115.21

Value

$112.79

PnL

-$2.42

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

Both legs:

Invested

$97.06

Value

$109.99

PnL

+$12.93

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

bosona<$100

Invested

$92.5

Value

$95.63

PnL

+$3.13

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$53.54

Value

$66.52

PnL

+$12.98

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

Both legs:

Up$39.3155.1¢+$1.71

Down$14.2323.7¢+$11.27

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$72.66

Value

$57.93

PnL

-$14.73

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

Both legs:

Up$22.7654.4¢+$8.4

Down$49.947.5¢-$23.13

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$54.18

Value

$55.5

PnL

+$1.32

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$46.1

Value

$48.43

PnL

+$2.32

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.29

Value

$42.05

PnL

-$0.24

Record

52%

10477-9488 (19965)

1000monkeysCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.02

Value

$27.8

PnL

-$0.22

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$34.06

Value

$25.73

PnL

-$8.33

Record

65%

130448-70263 (200711)

almach<$100

Invested

$23.3

Value

$23.45

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.99

Value

$22.54

PnL

-$2.45

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$22.62

Value

$21.32

PnL

-$1.3

Record

61%

46186-29359 (75545)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$27.25

Value

$21.18

PnL

-$6.08

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$17.72

Value

$18.68

PnL

+$0.95

Record

52%

10594-9935 (20529)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$14.88

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$1.08

Record

52%

21140-19314 (40454)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

63404-46606 (110010)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$9.74

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$2.75

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.07

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.23

Record

65%

114692-61718 (176410)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$6.49

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$1.84

Record

61%

98731-62694 (161425)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.7%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.