Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (89%). 9 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

9 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Up (35%) · Up at 12¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7

Up12¢Down88¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 35%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

-$396.88

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 11.5¢

-77% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 26 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Down 89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up12%

Down89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,588

Combined PnL-$525.88

Down17 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,247

Combined PnL+$128.99

Up — 35%Down — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.0K	$6.7K	-$456.22	56% 3967-3080 (7047)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 62.5¢	$538.35	$539.79	+$1.44	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 54.4¢	$392.87	$482.44	+$89.56	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 50.4¢	$429.84	$405.14	-$24.7	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 60.1¢	$355.79	$395.74	+$39.95	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 45.9¢	$476.68	$331.73	-$144.96	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.2¢	$162.51	$212.05	+$49.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.9¢	$314.18	$119.67	-$194.5
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57.3¢	$286.33	$318.67	+$32.33	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 44.7¢	$257.37	$209.61	-$47.76	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$87.68	$158.35	+$70.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$169.69	$51.25	-$118.44
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 66.5¢	$150.31	$130.17	-$20.14	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 26¢	$95.57	$93.26	-$2.31	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$34.47	$61.53	+$27.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 26¢	$61.1	$31.72	-$29.38
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 71¢	$59.32	$62.81	+$3.49	12% 18943-134194 (153137)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 36.9¢	$85.4	$62.24	-$23.17	52% 21140-19314 (40454)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$66.53	$58.87	-$7.66	52% 10477-9488 (19965)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$38.92	$58.55	+$19.63	56% 60660-47178 (107838)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$47.7	$57.04	+$9.34	63% 42522-25264 (67786)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$57.56	$50.31	-$7.25	58% 63404-46606 (110010)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$53.1	$49.63	-$3.48	65% 130448-70263 (200711)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$77.58	$36.59	-$40.99	54% 13719-11714 (25433)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$46.56	$31.63	-$14.94	57% 9963-7448 (17411)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$25.94	$31.2	+$5.26	61% 46186-29359 (75545)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$29	$29.29	+$0.28	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$36.75	$27.96	-$8.78	52% 10594-9935 (20529)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 14.8¢	$18.55	$21.88	+$3.32	65% 114692-61718 (176410)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 60¢	$12.1	$17.44	+$5.34	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$11.54	$11.48	-$0.06	56% 8889-6954 (15843)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$8,000

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$456.22

Record

56%

3967-3080 (7047)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$538.35

Value

$539.79

PnL

+$1.44

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$392.87

Value

$482.44

PnL

+$89.56

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$429.84

Value

$405.14

PnL

-$24.7

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$355.79

Value

$395.74

PnL

+$39.95

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$476.68

Value

$331.73

PnL

-$144.96

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

Both legs:

Down$162.5163.2¢+$49.55

Up$314.1845.9¢-$194.5

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$286.33

Value

$318.67

PnL

+$32.33

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$257.37

Value

$209.61

PnL

-$47.76

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

Both legs:

Down$87.6847.9¢+$70.68

Up$169.6944.7¢-$118.44

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$150.31

Value

$130.17

PnL

-$20.14

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$95.57

Value

$93.26

PnL

-$2.31

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

Both legs:

Down$34.4748.5¢+$27.06

Up$61.126¢-$29.38

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$59.32

Value

$62.81

PnL

+$3.49

Record

12%

18943-134194 (153137)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$85.4

Value

$62.24

PnL

-$23.17

Record

52%

21140-19314 (40454)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$66.53

Value

$58.87

PnL

-$7.66

Record

52%

10477-9488 (19965)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$38.92

Value

$58.55

PnL

+$19.63

Record

56%

60660-47178 (107838)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$47.7

Value

$57.04

PnL

+$9.34

Record

63%

42522-25264 (67786)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$57.56

Value

$50.31

PnL

-$7.25

Record

58%

63404-46606 (110010)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$53.1

Value

$49.63

PnL

-$3.48

Record

65%

130448-70263 (200711)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$77.58

Value

$36.59

PnL

-$40.99

Record

54%

13719-11714 (25433)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$46.56

Value

$31.63

PnL

-$14.94

Record

57%

9963-7448 (17411)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$25.94

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$5.26

Record

61%

46186-29359 (75545)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$29

Value

$29.29

PnL

+$0.28

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Invested

$36.75

Value

$27.96

PnL

-$8.78

Record

52%

10594-9935 (20529)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$18.55

Value

$21.88

PnL

+$3.32

Record

65%

114692-61718 (176410)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$12.1

Value

$17.44

PnL

+$5.34

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$11.54

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

8889-6954 (15843)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 26 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Down 89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.3%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$653.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

753.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.