Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (46%) · Up at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Up52¢Down48¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$29.23

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 51.5¢

-19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up52%

Down49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$658.73

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL+$5.77

Down7 traders

Total Value$356.74

Total Shares668

Combined PnL+$23.46

Up — 46%Down — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 63¢	$323.12	$325.74	+$2.63	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
pspspsps5	Upavg 63.5¢	$243.21	$250.87	+$7.65	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$226.75	$237.59	+$10.84	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.8¢	$128.37	$146.36	+$17.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$98.37	$91.23	-$7.15
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 42¢	$135.3	$137.99	+$2.69	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42¢	$78.64	$96.37	+$17.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$56.66	$41.62	-$15.04
10 1000monkeysCTR<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$72.37	$75.06	+$2.68	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$62.67	$71.71	+$9.04	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 42.3¢	$56.31	$58.82	+$2.51	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$45.98	$44.66	-$1.32	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$42.68	$44.33	+$1.65	54% 13719-11714 (25433)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$34.3	$35.25	+$0.95	65% 130448-70263 (200711)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Downavg 42.1¢	$30.47	$35.09	+$4.62	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 67.1¢	$34.2	$32.36	-$1.84	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$22.81	$27.08	+$4.27	52% 21140-19314 (40454)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$13.94	$10.42	-$3.52	56% 8889-6954 (15843)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$4.18	$4.08	-$0.1	55% 51661-42835 (94496)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$323.12

Value

$325.74

PnL

+$2.63

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

pspspsps5

Invested

$243.21

Value

$250.87

PnL

+$7.65

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$226.75

Value

$237.59

PnL

+$10.84

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

Both legs:

Down$128.3740.8¢+$17.99

Up$98.3757.7¢-$7.15

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$135.3

Value

$137.99

PnL

+$2.69

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

Both legs:

Invested

$72.37

Value

$75.06

PnL

+$2.68

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$62.67

Value

$71.71

PnL

+$9.04

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.31

Value

$58.82

PnL

+$2.51

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45.98

Value

$44.66

PnL

-$1.32

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.68

Value

$44.33

PnL

+$1.65

Record

54%

13719-11714 (25433)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$34.3

Value

$35.25

PnL

+$0.95

Record

65%

130448-70263 (200711)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.47

Value

$35.09

PnL

+$4.62

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$34.2

Value

$32.36

PnL

-$1.84

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.81

Value

$27.08

PnL

+$4.27

Record

52%

21140-19314 (40454)

13897651<$100

Invested

$13.94

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$3.52

Record

56%

8889-6954 (15843)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.08

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.