Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Down (58%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$109.41

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 100¢

+88% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares9,050

Combined PnL+$186.14

Up8 traders

Total Value$97.6

Total Shares654

Combined PnL-$76.72

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$8.0K	$7.9K	+$143.95	56% 3967-3080 (7047)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 76.3¢	$490.19	$507.02	+$16.83	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 69.4¢	$198.94	$199.68	+$0.74	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$191.7	$175.96	-$15.74	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.7¢	$98.64	$118.48	+$19.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$93.06	$57.48	-$35.58
BL blue.birds	Downavg 80.9¢	$130.65	$152.59	+$21.94	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 37.9¢	$123.12	$93.79	-$29.33	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$51.76	$68.39	+$16.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$71.36	$25.4	-$45.96
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 77¢	$96.87	$83.05	-$13.82	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77¢	$55.45	$59.39	+$3.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.6¢	$41.43	$23.66	-$17.76
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 96¢	$58.2	$58.5	+$0.3	49% 4223-4318 (8541)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$43.65	$49.13	+$5.48	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 94¢	$41.61	$42.27	+$0.66	75% 9911-3318 (13229)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$41.1	$40.16	-$0.94	52% 10594-9935 (20529)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 32.1¢	$78.01	$30.07	-$47.94	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$25.76	$24.08	-$1.68	56% 60660-47178 (107838)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$27.39	$23.85	-$3.54	52% 10477-9488 (19965)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$16.16	$15.63	-$0.53	58% 63404-46606 (110010)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 27.7¢	$14.05	$12.43	-$1.62	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 5.2¢	$13.65	$11.88	-$1.77	57% 9963-7448 (17411)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 25.3¢	$12.9	$9.73	-$3.17	63% 42522-25264 (67786)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$7.8	$7.65	-$0.15	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$3.18	$2.58	-$0.61	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 43.4¢	$19.46	$1.12	-$18.34	65% 114692-61718 (176410)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 4.3¢	$1.07	$0.88	-$0.19	61% 46186-29359 (75545)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$8,000

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$143.95

Record

56%

3967-3080 (7047)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$490.19

Value

$507.02

PnL

+$16.83

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$198.94

Value

$199.68

PnL

+$0.74

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$191.7

Value

$175.96

PnL

-$15.74

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

Both legs:

Down$98.6468.7¢+$19.84

Up$93.0628.3¢-$35.58

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$130.65

Value

$152.59

PnL

+$21.94

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$123.12

Value

$93.79

PnL

-$29.33

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

Both legs:

Down$51.7665.5¢+$16.63

Up$71.3637.9¢-$45.96

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$96.87

Value

$83.05

PnL

-$13.82

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

Both legs:

Invested

$58.2

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

4223-4318 (8541)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$43.65

Value

$49.13

PnL

+$5.48

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$41.61

Value

$42.27

PnL

+$0.66

Record

75%

9911-3318 (13229)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$41.1

Value

$40.16

PnL

-$0.94

Record

52%

10594-9935 (20529)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$78.01

Value

$30.07

PnL

-$47.94

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$25.76

Value

$24.08

PnL

-$1.68

Record

56%

60660-47178 (107838)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Invested

$27.39

Value

$23.85

PnL

-$3.54

Record

52%

10477-9488 (19965)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$16.16

Value

$15.63

PnL

-$0.53

Record

58%

63404-46606 (110010)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$14.05

Value

$12.43

PnL

-$1.62

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$13.65

Value

$11.88

PnL

-$1.77

Record

57%

9963-7448 (17411)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$12.9

Value

$9.73

PnL

-$3.17

Record

63%

42522-25264 (67786)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$0.15

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$3.18

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.61

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$19.46

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$18.34

Record

65%

114692-61718 (176410)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.19

Record

61%

46186-29359 (75545)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.