Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 34 top traders (41%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares10,073

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Up20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,365

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Down — 41%Up — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$7.6K	$6.0K	+$52.08	53% 8314-7279 (15593)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$37.66	89% 29489-3558 (33047)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 64.6¢	$813.92	$1.3K	+$439.14	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 41.5¢	$889.81	—	-$889.81	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 48¢	$677.86	$881.9	+$204.04	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$423.51	$881.9	+$458.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$254.34	—	-$254.34
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$524.94	$535.82	+$10.88	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$188.11	$535.82	+$347.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$336.83	—	-$336.83
machinelearned	Downavg 64¢	$483.08	$519.98	+$36.9	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 55.9¢	$421.03	—	-$421.03	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 48.3¢	$310	—	-$310	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 64.1¢	$261.59	—	-$261.59	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 30¢	$61.99	$199.98	+$137.99	51% 17667-17069 (34736)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 46.1¢	$169.54	$196.62	+$27.08	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 76.7¢	$150.24	$156.5	+$6.26	52% 10594-9935 (20529)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 48¢	$101.49	$132.65	+$31.16	52% 10477-9488 (19965)
PA Papeasy	Downavg 41.6¢	$57.32	$137.94	+$80.62	49% 4223-4318 (8541)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 40.1¢	$43.7	$87.81	+$44.11	57% 9963-7448 (17411)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 83¢	$80.52	—	-$80.52	63% 42522-25264 (67786)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 90.9¢	$63.86	—	-$63.86	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 46.4¢	$53.99	—	-$53.99	52% 21140-19314 (40454)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$73.58	—	-$73.58	54% 13719-11714 (25433)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$44.76	—	-$44.76	65% 130448-70263 (200711)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 89.7¢	$92.2	—	-$92.2	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$27.42	—	-$27.42	56% 60660-47178 (107838)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$78.41	—	-$78.41	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 74¢	$30.33	—	-$30.33	49% 81096-84540 (165636)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$7,598

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$52.08

Record

53%

8314-7279 (15593)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,205.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$37.66

Record

89%

29489-3558 (33047)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$813.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$439.14

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$889.81

Value

—

PnL

-$889.81

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$677.86

Value

$881.9

PnL

+$204.04

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

Both legs:

Down$423.5148¢+$458.39

Up$254.3453.5¢-$254.34

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$524.94

Value

$535.82

PnL

+$10.88

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

Both legs:

Down$188.1135.1¢+$347.71

Up$336.8349.1¢-$336.83

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$483.08

Value

$519.98

PnL

+$36.9

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$421.03

Value

—

PnL

-$421.03

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$310

Value

—

PnL

-$310

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$261.59

Value

—

PnL

-$261.59

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$61.99

Value

$199.98

PnL

+$137.99

Record

51%

17667-17069 (34736)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$169.54

Value

$196.62

PnL

+$27.08

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$150.24

Value

$156.5

PnL

+$6.26

Record

52%

10594-9935 (20529)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$101.49

Value

$132.65

PnL

+$31.16

Record

52%

10477-9488 (19965)

Papeasy

Down

Invested

$57.32

Value

$137.94

PnL

+$80.62

Record

49%

4223-4318 (8541)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$43.7

Value

$87.81

PnL

+$44.11

Record

57%

9963-7448 (17411)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$80.52

Value

—

PnL

-$80.52

Record

63%

42522-25264 (67786)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$63.86

Value

—

PnL

-$63.86

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$53.99

Value

—

PnL

-$53.99

Record

52%

21140-19314 (40454)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$73.58

Value

—

PnL

-$73.58

Record

54%

13719-11714 (25433)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$44.76

Value

—

PnL

-$44.76

Record

65%

130448-70263 (200711)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$92.2

Value

—

PnL

-$92.2

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$27.42

Value

—

PnL

-$27.42

Record

56%

60660-47178 (107838)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$78.41

Value

—

PnL

-$78.41

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$30.33

Value

—

PnL

-$30.33

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 34 top traders (41%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x03878564...90199c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794038700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $6.0K

+$52.08

hoodquant

Down — $1.2K

+$37.66

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.3K

asdcaxz

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $519.98

+$36.9

blue.birds

CTR

Up — $0

-$421.03

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

pspspsps5

Up — $0