Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

16 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$106.18

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 100¢

+82% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 25 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares10,879

Combined PnL+$184.48

Down9 traders

Total Value$197.06

Total Shares547

Combined PnL-$78.31

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$7.7K	$6.6K	+$42.94	53% 8314-7279 (15593)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 65¢	$890.58	$858.09	-$32.49	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 62¢	$714.79	$748.06	+$33.27	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 63.7¢	$504.93	$532.57	+$27.65	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 59.2¢	$480.94	$467.86	-$13.08	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 52.1¢	$268.61	$306.96	+$38.35	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
NIULAI4	Upavg 59.9¢	$193.35	$277.63	+$84.28	75% 9911-3318 (13229)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 65.5¢	$215.48	$215.49	+$0.01	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 52¢	$201.43	$204.95	+$3.51	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 40¢	$132.8	$195.54	+$62.74	51% 17667-17069 (34736)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$72.46	$117.75	+$45.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.1¢	$60.33	$77.79	+$17.45
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 46¢	$254.83	$195.2	-$59.63	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.9¢	$104.77	$141.35	+$36.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$150.06	$53.86	-$96.2
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 48¢	$154.4	$122.92	-$31.48	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$129.05	$92.67	-$36.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.9¢	$25.35	$30.25	+$4.9
BoneOhio	Upavg 77.1¢	$120.51	$114.95	-$5.56	74% 105128-37103 (142231)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$84.37	$92.44	+$8.07	52% 21140-19314 (40454)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.8¢	$59.72	$63.69	+$3.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.7¢	$24.65	$28.74	+$4.09
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 72.8¢	$78.82	$79.62	+$0.8	52% 10594-9935 (20529)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$85.91	$66.06	-$19.85	54% 13719-11714 (25433)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 98.1¢	$44.16	$44.78	+$0.61	64% 4984-2813 (7797)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$22.17	$25.72	+$3.56	63% 42522-25264 (67786)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 68.6¢	$28.99	$25	-$3.99	58% 63404-46606 (110010)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 30.8¢	$31.77	$24.17	-$7.6	52% 10477-9488 (19965)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$32.82	$22.15	-$10.68	65% 130448-70263 (200711)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$22.42	$21.55	-$0.87	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$21.88	$20.93	-$0.95	56% 60660-47178 (107838)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 74.2¢	$15.31	$19.91	+$4.6	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$19.83	$18.77	-$1.07	65% 114692-61718 (176410)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$7,684

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$42.94

Record

53%

8314-7279 (15593)

asdcaxz

Invested

$890.58

Value

$858.09

PnL

-$32.49

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

1000monkeys

Invested

$714.79

Value

$748.06

PnL

+$33.27

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

blue.birds

Invested

$504.93

Value

$532.57

PnL

+$27.65

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

Bonereaper

Invested

$480.94

Value

$467.86

PnL

-$13.08

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$268.61

Value

$306.96

PnL

+$38.35

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

NIULAI4

Invested

$193.35

Value

$277.63

PnL

+$84.28

Record

75%

9911-3318 (13229)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$215.48

Value

$215.49

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

GoodFallen

Invested

$201.43

Value

$204.95

PnL

+$3.51

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$132.8

Value

$195.54

PnL

+$62.74

Record

51%

17667-17069 (34736)

Both legs:

Up$72.4640¢+$45.29

Down$60.3327.1¢+$17.45

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$254.83

Value

$195.2

PnL

-$59.63

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

Both legs:

Up$104.7761.9¢+$36.58

Down$150.0646¢-$96.2

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.4

Value

$122.92

PnL

-$31.48

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

Both legs:

Down$129.0548¢-$36.38

Up$25.3554.9¢+$4.9

BoneOhio

Invested

$120.51

Value

$114.95

PnL

-$5.56

Record

74%

105128-37103 (142231)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$84.37

Value

$92.44

PnL

+$8.07

Record

52%

21140-19314 (40454)

Both legs:

Up$59.7255.8¢+$3.98

Down$24.6534.7¢+$4.09

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$78.82

Value

$79.62

PnL

+$0.8

Record

52%

10594-9935 (20529)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$85.91

Value

$66.06

PnL

-$19.85

Record

54%

13719-11714 (25433)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$44.16

Value

$44.78

PnL

+$0.61

Record

64%

4984-2813 (7797)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$22.17

Value

$25.72

PnL

+$3.56

Record

63%

42522-25264 (67786)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$28.99

Value

$25

PnL

-$3.99

Record

58%

63404-46606 (110010)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.77

Value

$24.17

PnL

-$7.6

Record

52%

10477-9488 (19965)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.82

Value

$22.15

PnL

-$10.68

Record

65%

130448-70263 (200711)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.42

Value

$21.55

PnL

-$0.87

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.88

Value

$20.93

PnL

-$0.95

Record

56%

60660-47178 (107838)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$15.31

Value

$19.91

PnL

+$4.6

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.83

Value

$18.77

PnL

-$1.07

Record

65%

114692-61718 (176410)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

16 of 25 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.