Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 61%
2 arb excluded
$7.5K
$-4.1K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 37 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$17.6 | 74% 105128-37103 (142231) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 53¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 48% 6714-7364 (14078) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 53.8¢ | $650.66 | — | -$650.66 | 66% 101078-52946 (154024) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 34.9¢ | $578.72 | — | -$578.72 | 51% 12215-11708 (23923) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 50.3¢ | $565.41 | — | -$565.41 | 55% 9893-8203 (18096) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $582.66 | $666.29 | +$83.63 | 54% 16612-14048 (30660) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.2¢ | $288.14 | $666.29 | +$378.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.2¢ | $294.51 | — | -$294.51 | |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Upavg 73.5¢ | $547.09 | — | -$547.09 | 59% 11348-7797 (19145) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Upavg 67.7¢ | $530.35 | — | -$530.35 | 51% 17667-17069 (34736) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $593.9 | $482.44 | -$111.45 | 75% 9911-3318 (13229) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 47.6¢ | $390.83 | $420.75 | +$29.92 | 55% 15008-12442 (27450) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $379.9 | $422.91 | +$43.01 | 52% 10594-9935 (20529) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 51.2¢ | $269.85 | $286.71 | +$16.86 | 54% 13719-11714 (25433) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $253.5 | $336.78 | +$83.28 | 58% 39839-28824 (68663) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 58.6¢ | $77.79 | $1.5K | +$1.5K | 57% 9963-7448 (17411) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 1.5¢ | $23.52 | $1.5K | +$1.5K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.6¢ | $54.27 | — | -$54.27 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 58.2¢ | $247.98 | $240.49 | -$7.48 | 55% 52367-42838 (95205) |
AL almach | Downavg 74.9¢ | $269.91 | $233.06 | -$36.85 | 55% 50268-41869 (92137) |
 pspspsps5CTR | Upavg 64.3¢ | $251.13 | — | -$251.13 | 45% 40219-48185 (88404) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR | Upavg 73.5¢ | $106.85 | — | -$103.88 | 65% 130448-70263 (200711) |
13 13897651 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $169.11 | $208.86 | +$39.75 | 56% 8889-6954 (15843) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.8¢ | $61.69 | — | -$61.69 | 65% 114692-61718 (176410) |
BO bosona | Downavg 83.9¢ | $126.94 | $90.99 | -$35.95 | 55% 51720-42173 (93893) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.6¢ | $27.23 | — | -$27.23 | 49% 4223-4318 (8541) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $80.46 | $69.93 | -$10.53 | 52% 10477-9488 (19965) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 62.6¢ | $106.01 | $120.98 | +$14.97 | 61% 46186-29359 (75545) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 81.4¢ | $118.66 | $130 | +$11.34 | 52% 21140-19314 (40454) |
BoneOhioInvested
$1,742.06
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$17.6
Record
74%
105128-37103 (142231)
Invested
$1,096.49
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
48%
6714-7364 (14078)
Invested
$650.66
Value
—
PnL
-$650.66
Record
66%
101078-52946 (154024)
Invested
$578.72
Value
—
PnL
-$578.72
Record
51%
12215-11708 (23923)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$565.41
Value
—
PnL
-$565.41
Record
55%
9893-8203 (18096)
Invested
$582.66
Value
$666.29
PnL
+$83.63
Record
54%
16612-14048 (30660)
Both legs:
Invested
$547.09
Value
—
PnL
-$547.09
Record
59%
11348-7797 (19145)
Invested
$530.35
Value
—
PnL
-$530.35
Record
51%
17667-17069 (34736)
NIULAI4Invested
$593.9
Value
$482.44
PnL
-$111.45
Record
75%
9911-3318 (13229)
Invested
$390.83
Value
$420.75
PnL
+$29.92
Record
55%
15008-12442 (27450)
Invested
$379.9
Value
$422.91
PnL
+$43.01
Record
52%
10594-9935 (20529)
FairValueMachineInvested
$269.85
Value
$286.71
PnL
+$16.86
Record
54%
13719-11714 (25433)
Invested
$253.5
Value
$336.78
PnL
+$83.28
Record
58%
39839-28824 (68663)
Invested
$77.79
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
57%
9963-7448 (17411)
Both legs:
Invested
$247.98
Value
$240.49
PnL
-$7.48
Record
55%
52367-42838 (95205)
Invested
$269.91
Value
$233.06
PnL
-$36.85
Record
55%
50268-41869 (92137)
pspspsps5CTRInvested
$251.13
Value
—
PnL
-$251.13
Record
45%
40219-48185 (88404)
Invested
$106.85
Value
—
PnL
-$103.88
Record
65%
130448-70263 (200711)
Invested
$169.11
Value
$208.86
PnL
+$39.75
Record
56%
8889-6954 (15843)
Invested
$61.69
Value
—
PnL
-$61.69
Record
65%
114692-61718 (176410)
Invested
$126.94
Value
$90.99
PnL
-$35.95
Record
55%
51720-42173 (93893)
Invested
$27.23
Value
—
PnL
-$27.23
Record
49%
4223-4318 (8541)
Invested
$80.46
Value
$69.93
PnL
-$10.53
Record
52%
10477-9488 (19965)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$106.01
Value
$120.98
PnL
+$14.97
Record
61%
46186-29359 (75545)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$118.66
Value
$130
PnL
+$11.34
Record
52%
21140-19314 (40454)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $1.8K
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
1000monkeys
CTRUp — $0
gansinimen
CTRUp — $0
NIULAI4
Down — $482.44
GoodFallen
Down — $420.75