Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,267

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Up18 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,644

Combined PnL+$857.95

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 57.4¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 58.8¢	$559.85	$951.92	+$392.07	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 57.6¢	$979.62	$913.55	-$66.07	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
machinelearned	Upavg 67.6¢	$816.13	$798.88	-$17.25	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Downavg 85.6¢	$646.71	—	-$646.71	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 58.4¢	$593.54	$632.97	+$39.43	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 49.1¢	$424.9	—	-$424.9	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$464.73	$544.13	+$79.4	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$253.74	—	-$253.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.8¢	$210.99	$544.13	+$333.14
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 39¢	$337.42	$515.3	+$177.87	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 27.4¢	$151.15	$261.69	+$110.55	51% 17667-17069 (34736)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.4¢	$127.09	—	-$127.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.2¢	$24.05	$261.69	+$237.64
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 47¢	$204.14	$249.56	+$45.43	52% 10477-9488 (19965)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 42.9¢	$194.61	$215.72	+$21.11	54% 13719-11714 (25433)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.6¢	$94.16	$215.72	+$121.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$100.45	—	-$100.45
NIULAI4	Upavg 53.2¢	$104.1	$180.7	+$76.6	75% 9911-3318 (13229)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 84.5¢	$154.88	—	-$154.88	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$89.11	—	-$89.11	57% 9963-7448 (17411)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$60.63	$94.17	+$39.3	65% 130448-70263 (200711)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 75.3¢	$179.84	$173.05	-$6.79	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.5¢	$49.5	—	-$49.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.3¢	$130.34	$173.05	+$42.71
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 71.9¢	$186.41	$168.55	-$10.26	61% 98731-62694 (161425)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.3¢	$44.89	—	-$52.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.9¢	$121.22	$168.55	+$41.76
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$155.53	$48.13	-$107.4	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$30.83	$48.13	+$17.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.6¢	$124.7	—	-$124.7
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$59.82	$72.18	+$12.36	52% 21140-19314 (40454)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$33.64	$72.18	+$38.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$26.19	—	-$26.19
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 68.6¢	$43.37	$57	+$13.63	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 31.2¢	$62.6	$149.5	+$86.9	58% 63404-46606 (110010)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 84.7¢	$65.86	—	-$65.86	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$146.75	$25	-$121.75	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.3¢	$126.5	—	-$126.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$20.25	$25	+$4.75
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$29.29	—	-$29.29	61% 46186-29359 (75545)

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,057.54

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$559.85

Value

$951.92

PnL

+$392.07

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

1000monkeys

Invested

$979.62

Value

$913.55

PnL

-$66.07

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

machinelearned

Invested

$816.13

Value

$798.88

PnL

-$17.25

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

asdcaxzCTR

Down

Invested

$646.71

Value

—

PnL

-$646.71

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

Bonereaper

Invested

$593.54

Value

$632.97

PnL

+$39.43

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$424.9

Value

—

PnL

-$424.9

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$464.73

Value

$544.13

PnL

+$79.4

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

Both legs:

Down$253.7445.6¢-$253.74

Up$210.9938.8¢+$333.14

GoodFallen

Invested

$337.42

Value

$515.3

PnL

+$177.87

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$151.15

Value

$261.69

PnL

+$110.55

Record

51%

17667-17069 (34736)

Both legs:

Down$127.0927.4¢-$127.09

Up$24.059.2¢+$237.64

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$204.14

Value

$249.56

PnL

+$45.43

Record

52%

10477-9488 (19965)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$194.61

Value

$215.72

PnL

+$21.11

Record

54%

13719-11714 (25433)

Both legs:

Up$94.1643.6¢+$121.56

Down$100.4542.9¢-$100.45

NIULAI4

Invested

$104.1

Value

$180.7

PnL

+$76.6

Record

75%

9911-3318 (13229)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$154.88

Value

—

PnL

-$154.88

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$89.11

Value

—

PnL

-$89.11

Record

57%

9963-7448 (17411)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$60.63

Value

$94.17

PnL

+$39.3

Record

65%

130448-70263 (200711)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$179.84

Value

$173.05

PnL

-$6.79

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

Both legs:

Down$49.580.5¢-$49.5

Up$130.3475.3¢+$42.71

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$186.41

Value

$168.55

PnL

-$10.26

Record

61%

98731-62694 (161425)

Both legs:

Down$44.8979.3¢-$52.02

Up$121.2271.9¢+$41.76

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.53

Value

$48.13

PnL

-$107.4

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

Both legs:

Up$30.8364.1¢+$17.3

Down$124.778.6¢-$124.7

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$59.82

Value

$72.18

PnL

+$12.36

Record

52%

21140-19314 (40454)

Both legs:

Up$33.6446.6¢+$38.54

Down$26.1943.6¢-$26.19

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$43.37

Value

$57

PnL

+$13.63

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$62.6

Value

$149.5

PnL

+$86.9

Record

58%

63404-46606 (110010)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$65.86

Value

—

PnL

-$65.86

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$146.75

Value

$25

PnL

-$121.75

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

Both legs:

Down$126.584.3¢-$126.5

Up$20.2581¢+$4.75

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.29

Value

—

PnL

-$29.29

Record

61%

46186-29359 (75545)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb25f18b9...6accf9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794038100

Traders in this Market

blue.birds

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.1K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $951.92

+$392.07

1000monkeys

Up — $913.55

-$66.07

machinelearned

Up — $798.88

-$17.25

asdcaxz

CTR

Down — $0

-$646.71

Bonereaper

Up — $632.97

+$39.43

pspspsps5

CTR

Down — $0

-$424.9

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$79.4

GoodFallen

Up — $515.3

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded