Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 79%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$378.58
Smart Money Signal
16 of 20 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 machinelearned | Upavg 83.1¢ | $626.63 | $691.52 | +$64.89 | 55% 9893-8203 (18096) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 78.5¢ | $646.49 | $823.95 | +$177.46 | 58% 39839-28824 (68663) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 82.7¢ | $406.52 | $491.68 | +$85.16 | 45% 40219-48185 (88404) |
10 1000monkeys | Upavg 75.4¢ | $415.1 | $440.57 | +$25.48 | 59% 11348-7797 (19145) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 93.1¢ | $142.06 | $141 | -$1.06 | 51% 12215-11708 (23923) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 95¢ | $95 | $100 | +$5 | 75% 9911-3318 (13229) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 17.2¢ | $140.17 | $65.92 | -$74.25 | 66% 101078-52946 (154024) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85.5¢ | $56.36 | $65.92 | +$9.56 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.2¢ | $83.82 | — | -$83.82 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Upavg 78.5¢ | $64.61 | $60 | -$4.61 | 54% 16612-14048 (30660) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 92.3¢ | $65.59 | $63.5 | -$2.09 | 48% 6714-7364 (14078) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Upavg 63.9¢ | $67.53 | $69.71 | +$2.18 | 52% 10477-9488 (19965) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $41.13 | $50.75 | +$9.62 | 49% 81096-84540 (165636) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 63.9¢ | $40.72 | $63.78 | +$23.05 | 56% 8889-6954 (15843) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 80.9¢ | $34.53 | $42.66 | +$8.13 | 65% 130448-70263 (200711) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $13.6 | — | -$13.6 | 12% 18943-134194 (153137) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $12.81 | $15.01 | +$2.2 | 55% 51661-42835 (94496) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $4.75 | — | -$4.75 | 49% 4223-4318 (8541) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 82.1¢ | $12.36 | $15.06 | +$2.7 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 82.1¢ | $4.1 | $5 | +$0.9 | 61% 98731-62694 (161425) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.8¢ | $50.9 | — | +$2.95 | 55% 15008-12442 (27450) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.1¢ | $5.02 | — | -$5.02 | 63% 42522-25264 (67786) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 53% 8314-7279 (15593) |
machinelearnedInvested
$626.63
Value
$691.52
PnL
+$64.89
Record
55%
9893-8203 (18096)
Invested
$646.49
Value
$823.95
PnL
+$177.46
Record
58%
39839-28824 (68663)
pspspsps5Invested
$406.52
Value
$491.68
PnL
+$85.16
Record
45%
40219-48185 (88404)
Invested
$415.1
Value
$440.57
PnL
+$25.48
Record
59%
11348-7797 (19145)
Invested
$142.06
Value
$141
PnL
-$1.06
Record
51%
12215-11708 (23923)
NIULAI4Invested
$95
Value
$100
PnL
+$5
Record
75%
9911-3318 (13229)
Invested
$140.17
Value
$65.92
PnL
-$74.25
Record
66%
101078-52946 (154024)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.61
Value
$60
PnL
-$4.61
Record
54%
16612-14048 (30660)
Invested
$65.59
Value
$63.5
PnL
-$2.09
Record
48%
6714-7364 (14078)
Invested
$67.53
Value
$69.71
PnL
+$2.18
Record
52%
10477-9488 (19965)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$41.13
Value
$50.75
PnL
+$9.62
Record
49%
81096-84540 (165636)
Invested
$40.72
Value
$63.78
PnL
+$23.05
Record
56%
8889-6954 (15843)
Invested
$34.53
Value
$42.66
PnL
+$8.13
Record
65%
130448-70263 (200711)
Invested
$13.6
Value
—
PnL
-$13.6
Record
12%
18943-134194 (153137)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.81
Value
$15.01
PnL
+$2.2
Record
55%
51661-42835 (94496)
Invested
$4.75
Value
—
PnL
-$4.75
Record
49%
4223-4318 (8541)
Invested
$12.36
Value
$15.06
PnL
+$2.7
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.9
Record
61%
98731-62694 (161425)
Invested
$50.9
Value
—
PnL
+$2.95
Record
55%
15008-12442 (27450)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$5.02
Value
—
PnL
-$5.02
Record
63%
42522-25264 (67786)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
8314-7279 (15593)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
machinelearned
Up — $691.52
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $823.95
pspspsps5
Up — $491.68
1000monkeys
Up — $440.57
blue.birds
Up — $141
NIULAI4
Up — $100
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $60
asdcaxz
Up — $63.5
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Up — $69.71