Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$161.65

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 27 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,038

Combined PnL+$305.83

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares525

Combined PnL-$144.18

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 80.9¢	$385.33	$386.33	+$1	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 57.9¢	$338.97	$585.06	+$246.08	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
pspspsps5	Downavg 72.8¢	$300.78	$315.23	+$14.45	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
machinelearned	Downavg 78¢	$148.98	$174.69	+$25.7	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 83.2¢	$129.07	$143.98	+$14.91	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 82.7¢	$137.38	$104.99	-$32.38	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.7¢	$86.78	$104.99	+$18.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.2¢	$50.6	—	-$50.6
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 83.6¢	$164.18	$121.75	-$42.43	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$104.25	$90	-$14.25	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.6¢	$61.76	$90	+$28.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.3¢	$42.49	—	-$42.49
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 70.1¢	$67.54	$80	+$12.46	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 88.7¢	$59.67	$63.74	+$4.07	52% 10477-9488 (19965)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$41.45	$47.5	+$6.05	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$86.28	—	-$86.28	51% 17667-17069 (34736)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 95¢	$42.33	$41.93	-$0.4	49% 4223-4318 (8541)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$17.77	$25	+$7.23	61% 46186-29359 (75545)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$21.47	$25	+$3.53	56% 60660-47178 (107838)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$14.55	$27.72	+$13.18	56% 8889-6954 (15843)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 22.2¢	$11.08	—	-$11.08	52% 21140-19314 (40454)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$4.91	—	-$4.91	65% 114692-61718 (176410)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 24.2¢	$6.06	—	-$6.06	63% 42522-25264 (67786)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$1.48	—	-$1.48	12% 18943-134194 (153137)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.55	—	-$0.55	75% 9911-3318 (13229)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 29.7¢	$16.71	—	-$16.71	64% 4984-2813 (7797)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$4.5	—	-$4.5	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$6.59	—	-$6.59	54% 13719-11714 (25433)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 6.4¢	$1.9	—	-$1.9	55% 52367-42838 (95205)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$385.33

Value

$386.33

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$338.97

Value

$585.06

PnL

+$246.08

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$300.78

Value

$315.23

PnL

+$14.45

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$148.98

Value

$174.69

PnL

+$25.7

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$129.07

Value

$143.98

PnL

+$14.91

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$137.38

Value

$104.99

PnL

-$32.38

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

Both legs:

Down$86.7882.7¢+$18.21

Up$50.620.2¢-$50.6

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$164.18

Value

$121.75

PnL

-$42.43

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.25

Value

$90

PnL

-$14.25

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

Both legs:

Down$61.7668.6¢+$28.24

Up$42.4923.3¢-$42.49

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$67.54

Value

$80

PnL

+$12.46

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$59.67

Value

$63.74

PnL

+$4.07

Record

52%

10477-9488 (19965)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$41.45

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$6.05

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$86.28

Value

—

PnL

-$86.28

Record

51%

17667-17069 (34736)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$42.33

Value

$41.93

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

4223-4318 (8541)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$17.77

Value

$25

PnL

+$7.23

Record

61%

46186-29359 (75545)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$21.47

Value

$25

PnL

+$3.53

Record

56%

60660-47178 (107838)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$14.55

Value

$27.72

PnL

+$13.18

Record

56%

8889-6954 (15843)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$11.08

Value

—

PnL

-$11.08

Record

52%

21140-19314 (40454)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

—

PnL

-$4.91

Record

65%

114692-61718 (176410)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$6.06

Value

—

PnL

-$6.06

Record

63%

42522-25264 (67786)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$1.48

Value

—

PnL

-$1.48

Record

12%

18943-134194 (153137)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$0.55

Value

—

PnL

-$0.55

Record

75%

9911-3318 (13229)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Invested

$16.71

Value

—

PnL

-$16.71

Record

64%

4984-2813 (7797)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$4.5

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$6.59

Value

—

PnL

-$6.59

Record

54%

13719-11714 (25433)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

—

PnL

-$1.9

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 27 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd06e1805...909306

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794036300

Traders in this Market

asdcaxz

Down — $386.33

+$1

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $585.06

+$246.08

pspspsps5

Down — $315.23

+$14.45

machinelearned

Down — $174.69

+$25.7

Bonereaper

Down — $143.98

+$14.91

blue.birds

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$32.38

1000monkeys

Down — $121.75

-$42.43

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$14.25

GoodFallen

Down — $80

+$12.46

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $63.74

+$4.07

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