Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Up 82%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$171.61
Smart Money Signal
20 of 25 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 machinelearned | Upavg 80.2¢ | $701.03 | $742.26 | +$41.23 | 55% 9893-8203 (18096) |
10 1000monkeys | Upavg 77.9¢ | $368.97 | $386.3 | +$17.33 | 59% 11348-7797 (19145) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 63.8¢ | $244.56 | $376.89 | +$132.33 | 45% 40219-48185 (88404) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 82.9¢ | $377.69 | $346.94 | -$30.75 | 48% 6714-7364 (14078) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72¢ | $317.81 | $347.02 | +$29.21 | 51% 12215-11708 (23923) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 94.5¢ | $141.75 | $150 | +$8.25 | 49% 4223-4318 (8541) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 77.2¢ | $130.87 | $148.96 | +$18.09 | 61% 46186-29359 (75545) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 33.3¢ | $156.42 | — | -$156.42 | 54% 16612-14048 (30660) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $83.49 | $109.11 | +$25.62 | 52% 10477-9488 (19965) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $83.42 | $86 | +$2.58 | 75% 9911-3318 (13229) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Upavg 70.5¢ | $59.65 | $79.99 | +$20.34 | 55% 15008-12442 (27450) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 93.7¢ | $75.2 | $80.3 | +$5.1 | 65% 130448-70263 (200711) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $29 | $50 | +$21 | 54% 13719-11714 (25433) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 63.8¢ | $51.92 | $43.12 | -$8.8 | 66% 101078-52946 (154024) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.8¢ | $27.51 | $43.12 | +$15.61 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.8¢ | $24.41 | — | -$24.41 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Upavg 84.1¢ | $36.33 | $41.13 | +$4.8 | 52% 10594-9935 (20529) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $34.11 | $50.01 | +$15.9 | 49% 81096-84540 (165636) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $29.5 | $50 | +$20.5 | 52% 21140-19314 (40454) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 64.7¢ | $22.17 | $20.44 | -$1.73 | 55% 51661-42835 (94496) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 88.7¢ | $4.44 | $5 | +$0.56 | 56% 60660-47178 (107838) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 78.2¢ | $3.91 | $5 | +$1.09 | 63% 42522-25264 (67786) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $3.75 | — | -$3.75 | 55% 51720-42173 (93893) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $0.78 | — | -$0.78 | 55% 52367-42838 (95205) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $0.36 | — | -$0.36 | 55% 50268-41869 (92137) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 53% 8314-7279 (15593) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 89.7¢ | $12.84 | — | +$1.48 | 64% 4984-2813 (7797) |
machinelearnedInvested
$701.03
Value
$742.26
PnL
+$41.23
Record
55%
9893-8203 (18096)
Invested
$368.97
Value
$386.3
PnL
+$17.33
Record
59%
11348-7797 (19145)
pspspsps5Invested
$244.56
Value
$376.89
PnL
+$132.33
Record
45%
40219-48185 (88404)
Invested
$377.69
Value
$346.94
PnL
-$30.75
Record
48%
6714-7364 (14078)
Invested
$317.81
Value
$347.02
PnL
+$29.21
Record
51%
12215-11708 (23923)
Invested
$141.75
Value
$150
PnL
+$8.25
Record
49%
4223-4318 (8541)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$130.87
Value
$148.96
PnL
+$18.09
Record
61%
46186-29359 (75545)
Invested
$156.42
Value
—
PnL
-$156.42
Record
54%
16612-14048 (30660)
Invested
$83.49
Value
$109.11
PnL
+$25.62
Record
52%
10477-9488 (19965)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$83.42
Value
$86
PnL
+$2.58
Record
75%
9911-3318 (13229)
Invested
$59.65
Value
$79.99
PnL
+$20.34
Record
55%
15008-12442 (27450)
Invested
$75.2
Value
$80.3
PnL
+$5.1
Record
65%
130448-70263 (200711)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$29
Value
$50
PnL
+$21
Record
54%
13719-11714 (25433)
Invested
$51.92
Value
$43.12
PnL
-$8.8
Record
66%
101078-52946 (154024)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.33
Value
$41.13
PnL
+$4.8
Record
52%
10594-9935 (20529)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$34.11
Value
$50.01
PnL
+$15.9
Record
49%
81096-84540 (165636)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$29.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$20.5
Record
52%
21140-19314 (40454)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$22.17
Value
$20.44
PnL
-$1.73
Record
55%
51661-42835 (94496)
Invested
$4.44
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.56
Record
56%
60660-47178 (107838)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.91
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.09
Record
63%
42522-25264 (67786)
Invested
$3.75
Value
—
PnL
-$3.75
Record
55%
51720-42173 (93893)
Invested
$0.78
Value
—
PnL
-$0.78
Record
55%
52367-42838 (95205)
Invested
$0.36
Value
—
PnL
-$0.36
Record
55%
50268-41869 (92137)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
8314-7279 (15593)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$12.84
Value
—
PnL
+$1.48
Record
64%
4984-2813 (7797)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
machinelearned
Up — $742.26
1000monkeys
Up — $386.3
pspspsps5
Up — $376.89
asdcaxz
Up — $346.94
blue.birds
Up — $347.02
Papeasy
Up — $150
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $148.96
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Up — $109.11
NIULAI4
Up — $86