Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$200.87

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 28 top traders (64%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,196

Combined PnL+$433.57

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares361

Combined PnL-$232.69

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$806.71	$782.19	-$24.51	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$523.02	$782.19	+$259.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.9¢	$283.68	—	-$283.68
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 72¢	$722.83	$702.55	-$20.28	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 70.3¢	$716.87	$646.12	-$70.75	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 67.2¢	$732.92	$1.0K	+$276.16	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
machinelearned	Downavg 70.3¢	$548.13	$552.94	+$4.81	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
NIULAI4	Downavg 74.6¢	$570.52	$485.38	-$85.15	75% 9911-3318 (13229)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$411.28	$523.67	+$112.38	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$303.42	$523.67	+$220.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.3¢	$107.86	—	-$107.86
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 89.4¢	$413.08	$390.57	-$22.51	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.9¢	$64	—	-$64
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.4¢	$349.08	$390.57	+$41.49
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 48.4¢	$231.45	$345.59	+$114.14	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 64.3¢	$225.79	$350.95	+$125.16	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
BO bosona	Downavg 86.3¢	$252.77	$224.01	-$28.76	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
AL almach	Downavg 82.8¢	$204.77	$194.74	-$10.03	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
MO mo-money	Downavg 84.7¢	$192.4	$183.66	-$8.74	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 37.9¢	$73.17	$135.01	+$61.84	54% 13719-11714 (25433)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 31.1¢	$85.82	—	-$85.82	52% 21140-19314 (40454)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$84.05	$132.52	+$48.47	65% 114692-61718 (176410)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$67.42	$132.52	+$65.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.1¢	$16.63	—	-$16.63
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 65.1¢	$74.08	$101.31	+$27.23	52% 10594-9935 (20529)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 92¢	$80.76	$75	-$5.76	49% 4223-4318 (8541)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 78.3¢	$107.96	$107.76	-$0.2	57% 9963-7448 (17411)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.3¢	$84.37	$107.76	+$23.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$23.59	—	-$23.59
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 67.9¢	$88.32	$93.3	+$4.98	56% 60660-47178 (107838)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.9¢	$63.33	$93.3	+$29.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 60¢	$24.99	—	-$24.99
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$62.78	$78.13	+$15.35	61% 46186-29359 (75545)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.6¢	$48.15	$78.13	+$29.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.6¢	$14.64	—	-$14.64
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$50.5	$47.61	-$2.89	52% 10477-9488 (19965)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.1¢	$16.48	—	-$16.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.5¢	$34.02	$47.61	+$13.59
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$56.64	—	-$56.64	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$82.35	$99.99	+$17.64	65% 130448-70263 (200711)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 72¢	$26.56	$36.87	+$10.32	12% 18943-134194 (153137)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$806.71

Value

$782.19

PnL

-$24.51

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

Both legs:

Down$523.0266.9¢+$259.17

Up$283.6831.9¢-$283.68

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$722.83

Value

$702.55

PnL

-$20.28

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$716.87

Value

$646.12

PnL

-$70.75

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$732.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$276.16

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$548.13

Value

$552.94

PnL

+$4.81

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$570.52

Value

$485.38

PnL

-$85.15

Record

75%

9911-3318 (13229)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$411.28

Value

$523.67

PnL

+$112.38

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

Both legs:

Down$303.4257.9¢+$220.24

Up$107.8629.3¢-$107.86

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$413.08

Value

$390.57

PnL

-$22.51

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

Both legs:

Up$6419.9¢-$64

Down$349.0889.4¢+$41.49

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$231.45

Value

$345.59

PnL

+$114.14

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$225.79

Value

$350.95

PnL

+$125.16

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

bosona

Down

Invested

$252.77

Value

$224.01

PnL

-$28.76

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

almach

Down

Invested

$204.77

Value

$194.74

PnL

-$10.03

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$192.4

Value

$183.66

PnL

-$8.74

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$73.17

Value

$135.01

PnL

+$61.84

Record

54%

13719-11714 (25433)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$85.82

Value

—

PnL

-$85.82

Record

52%

21140-19314 (40454)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.05

Value

$132.52

PnL

+$48.47

Record

65%

114692-61718 (176410)

Both legs:

Down$67.4250.9¢+$65.1

Up$16.6320.1¢-$16.63

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$74.08

Value

$101.31

PnL

+$27.23

Record

52%

10594-9935 (20529)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$80.76

Value

$75

PnL

-$5.76

Record

49%

4223-4318 (8541)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$107.96

Value

$107.76

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

9963-7448 (17411)

Both legs:

Down$84.3778.3¢+$23.39

Up$23.5952.1¢-$23.59

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.32

Value

$93.3

PnL

+$4.98

Record

56%

60660-47178 (107838)

Both legs:

Down$63.3367.9¢+$29.97

Up$24.9960¢-$24.99

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$62.78

Value

$78.13

PnL

+$15.35

Record

61%

46186-29359 (75545)

Both legs:

Down$48.1561.6¢+$29.98

Up$14.6436.6¢-$14.64

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$50.5

Value

$47.61

PnL

-$2.89

Record

52%

10477-9488 (19965)

Both legs:

Up$16.4830.1¢-$16.48

Down$34.0271.5¢+$13.59

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$56.64

Value

—

PnL

-$56.64

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$82.35

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$17.64

Record

65%

130448-70263 (200711)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$26.56

Value

$36.87

PnL

+$10.32

Record

12%

18943-134194 (153137)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 28 top traders (64%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x904e6eb2...87d554

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794036000

Traders in this Market

1000monkeys

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$24.51

asdcaxz

Down — $702.55

-$20.28

blue.birds

Down — $646.12

-$70.75

Bonereaper

Down — $1.0K

+$276.16

machinelearned

Down — $552.94

+$4.81

NIULAI4

Down — $485.38

-$85.15

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Down — $345.59

+$114.14

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $350.95

+$125.16

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