Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

23 of 35 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,978

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Up23 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,083

Combined PnL+$509.74

Down — 34%Up — 66%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA gansinimenCTR	Downavg 78.4¢	$665.08	—	-$665.08	51% 17667-17069 (34736)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 73.1¢	$717.26	$981.15	+$263.9	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 61.9¢	$636.68	$586.41	-$50.27	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 63.7¢	$594.89	$514.27	-$80.62	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 37.5¢	$237.2	$377.19	+$139.99	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 40.2¢	$602.17	$264.83	-$337.34	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.1¢	$108.91	$264.83	+$155.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$493.26	—	-$493.26
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 81.5¢	$410.91	$317.84	-$93.07	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 52.8¢	$279.62	$286.76	+$7.15	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 53.7¢	$334.41	—	-$334.41	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 88¢	$213.23	—	-$213.23	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
BoneOhioCTR	Downavg 85.1¢	$131.95	—	-$131.95	74% 105128-37103 (142231)
PA Papeasy	Upavg 41.7¢	$64.79	$146.93	+$82.14	49% 4223-4318 (8541)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 73.8¢	$79.49	$89	+$9.51	52% 10594-9935 (20529)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 82.6¢	$63.01	$75	+$11.99	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 80.7¢	$60.5	$75	+$14.5	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$39.75	—	-$39.75	12% 18943-134194 (153137)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$61.17	$64	+$2.83	54% 13719-11714 (25433)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 97.2¢	$64.05	$55	-$9.05	61% 98731-62694 (161425)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 49¢	$117.89	—	-$117.89	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$39.59	—	-$39.59	56% 60660-47178 (107838)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 79.6¢	$38.84	$41	+$2.16	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Downavg 37.6¢	$22	—	-$22	52% 21140-19314 (40454)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$34.99	—	-$34.99	58% 63404-46606 (110010)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 91.6¢	$94.05	$89.98	-$4.07	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$42.17	$59.42	+$17.25	61% 46186-29359 (75545)

gansinimenCTR

Down

Invested

$665.08

Value

—

PnL

-$665.08

Record

51%

17667-17069 (34736)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$717.26

Value

$981.15

PnL

+$263.9

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

blue.birds

Invested

$636.68

Value

$586.41

PnL

-$50.27

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

1000monkeys

Invested

$594.89

Value

$514.27

PnL

-$80.62

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

Bonereaper

Invested

$237.2

Value

$377.19

PnL

+$139.99

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$602.17

Value

$264.83

PnL

-$337.34

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

Both legs:

Up$108.9141.1¢+$155.92

Down$493.2640.2¢-$493.26

asdcaxz

Invested

$410.91

Value

$317.84

PnL

-$93.07

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$279.62

Value

$286.76

PnL

+$7.15

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$334.41

Value

—

PnL

-$334.41

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$213.23

Value

—

PnL

-$213.23

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

BoneOhioCTR

Down

Invested

$131.95

Value

—

PnL

-$131.95

Record

74%

105128-37103 (142231)

Papeasy

Invested

$64.79

Value

$146.93

PnL

+$82.14

Record

49%

4223-4318 (8541)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$79.49

Value

$89

PnL

+$9.51

Record

52%

10594-9935 (20529)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$63.01

Value

$75

PnL

+$11.99

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

bosona<$100

Invested

$60.5

Value

$75

PnL

+$14.5

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.75

Value

—

PnL

-$39.75

Record

12%

18943-134194 (153137)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$61.17

Value

$64

PnL

+$2.83

Record

54%

13719-11714 (25433)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$64.05

Value

$55

PnL

-$9.05

Record

61%

98731-62694 (161425)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$117.89

Value

—

PnL

-$117.89

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.59

Value

—

PnL

-$39.59

Record

56%

60660-47178 (107838)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$38.84

Value

$41

PnL

+$2.16

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22

Value

—

PnL

-$22

Record

52%

21140-19314 (40454)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.99

Value

—

PnL

-$34.99

Record

58%

63404-46606 (110010)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$94.05

Value

$89.98

PnL

-$4.07

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$42.17

Value

$59.42

PnL

+$17.25

Record

61%

46186-29359 (75545)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 35 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc8729560...e05ff4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794035700

Traders in this Market

gansinimen

CTR

Down — $0

-$665.08

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $981.15

+$263.9

blue.birds

Up — $586.41

-$50.27

1000monkeys

Up — $514.27

-$80.62

Bonereaper

Up — $377.19

+$139.99

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$337.34

asdcaxz

Up — $317.84

-$93.07

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $286.76

pspspsps5

Down — $0

almach

Down — $0