Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

20 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Down (69%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$232.22

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,457

Combined PnL-$165.65

Down20 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,199

Combined PnL-$66.56

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 22.8¢	$433.21	$491.73	+$58.51	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 67.2¢	$402.82	$410.79	+$7.96	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 78.8¢	$378.88	$322.41	-$56.47	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 61.8¢	$262.67	$284.56	+$21.9	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 47.3¢	$334.29	$209.61	-$124.68	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$203.84	$207.9	+$4.06	89% 29392-3557 (32949)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 34.8¢	$275.45	$195.37	-$80.07	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 79.2¢	$212.32	$170.84	-$41.47	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 78.8¢	$173.56	$166.66	-$6.9	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 93¢	$160.64	$141.75	-$18.89	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$118.18	$116.2	-$1.99	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$82.17	$82.79	+$0.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.2¢	$36.02	$33.4	-$2.61
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 85.4¢	$116.31	$107.87	-$8.44	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
CR CrouchPredictions<$100	Downavg 96.6¢	$82.61	$82.94	+$0.33	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$69.35	$64.08	-$5.27	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 61¢	$37.8	$61.94	+$24.14	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$65.05	$49.16	-$15.89	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$39.03	$39.08	+$0.05	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$17.93	$30.63	+$12.7	55% 52363-42830 (95193)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 88.9¢	$23.52	$25.68	+$2.16	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 94.4¢	$24.32	$25.63	+$1.32	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 90¢	$22.5	$23.13	+$0.63	49% 4190-4292 (8482)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 54¢	$11.74	$21.73	+$9.99	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$13.41	$16.76	+$3.35	59% 63904-45042 (108946)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 79¢	$20.11	$16.29	-$3.82	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$15.24	$14.2	-$1.04	65% 114604-61650 (176254)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$433.21

Value

$491.73

PnL

+$58.51

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$402.82

Value

$410.79

PnL

+$7.96

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$378.88

Value

$322.41

PnL

-$56.47

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$262.67

Value

$284.56

PnL

+$21.9

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$334.29

Value

$209.61

PnL

-$124.68

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$203.84

Value

$207.9

PnL

+$4.06

Record

89%

29392-3557 (32949)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$275.45

Value

$195.37

PnL

-$80.07

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$212.32

Value

$170.84

PnL

-$41.47

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$173.56

Value

$166.66

PnL

-$6.9

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$160.64

Value

$141.75

PnL

-$18.89

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$118.18

Value

$116.2

PnL

-$1.99

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

Both legs:

Down$82.1752.1¢+$0.63

Up$36.0251.2¢-$2.61

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$116.31

Value

$107.87

PnL

-$8.44

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

CrouchPredictions<$100

Down

Invested

$82.61

Value

$82.94

PnL

+$0.33

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

stepaheadCTR<$100

Invested

$69.35

Value

$64.08

PnL

-$5.27

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$37.8

Value

$61.94

PnL

+$24.14

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$65.05

Value

$49.16

PnL

-$15.89

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$39.03

Value

$39.08

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$17.93

Value

$30.63

PnL

+$12.7

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$23.52

Value

$25.68

PnL

+$2.16

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$24.32

Value

$25.63

PnL

+$1.32

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$22.5

Value

$23.13

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$11.74

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$9.99

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$13.41

Value

$16.76

PnL

+$3.35

Record

59%

63904-45042 (108946)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$20.11

Value

$16.29

PnL

-$3.82

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$15.24

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$1.04

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.