Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

23 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Up (77%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$86.38

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

23 of 30 top traders (77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,897

Combined PnL+$152.63

Down7 traders

Total Value$17.91

Total Shares565

Combined PnL-$66.25

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 79.3¢	$397.2	$446.24	+$49.04	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 61.7¢	$355.47	$377.2	+$21.73	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 68.6¢	$266.45	$272.78	+$6.33	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
machinelearned	Upavg 68.4¢	$196.08	$267.51	+$71.43	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
pspspsps5	Upavg 94¢	$269.75	$241.78	-$27.97	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 66.2¢	$168.66	$215.22	+$46.56	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 86.7¢	$197.67	$179.69	-$17.98	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 77.4¢	$91.27	$106.33	+$15.07	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
ST stepahead<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$76.54	$82.08	+$5.54	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 79.8¢	$63.61	$61.5	-$2.11	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 91.6¢	$66.04	$53.5	-$12.54	57% 9930-7432 (17362)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 98¢	$54.97	$52.86	-$2.11	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 90.2¢	$45.72	$48.55	+$2.83	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 90.6¢	$33.93	$38.77	+$4.84	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 85¢	$44.61	$36.75	-$7.86	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 86.1¢	$32.34	$32.5	+$0.16	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$30.06	$29.69	-$0.37	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
Bossgirl<$100	Upavg 60.7¢	$30.35	$25.25	-$5.1	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 81.6¢	$20.4	$24.99	+$4.59	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 64¢	$10.08	$10.32	+$0.24	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 93¢	$8.25	$8.16	-$0.09	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 25.8¢	$31.13	$7.84	-$23.3	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$12.41	$7.41	-$5	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$3.86	$3.67	-$0.19	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 87.8¢	$2.87	$3.46	+$0.6	49% 81012-84457 (165469)

Bonereaper

Invested

$397.2

Value

$446.24

PnL

+$49.04

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$355.47

Value

$377.2

PnL

+$21.73

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

1000monkeys

Invested

$266.45

Value

$272.78

PnL

+$6.33

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

machinelearned

Invested

$196.08

Value

$267.51

PnL

+$71.43

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

pspspsps5

Invested

$269.75

Value

$241.78

PnL

-$27.97

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

ply-pm0

Invested

$168.66

Value

$215.22

PnL

+$46.56

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$197.67

Value

$179.69

PnL

-$17.98

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$91.27

Value

$106.33

PnL

+$15.07

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

stepahead<$100

Invested

$76.54

Value

$82.08

PnL

+$5.54

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$63.61

Value

$61.5

PnL

-$2.11

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$66.04

Value

$53.5

PnL

-$12.54

Record

57%

9930-7432 (17362)

bosona<$100

Invested

$54.97

Value

$52.86

PnL

-$2.11

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

almach<$100

Invested

$45.72

Value

$48.55

PnL

+$2.83

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$33.93

Value

$38.77

PnL

+$4.84

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$44.61

Value

$36.75

PnL

-$7.86

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$32.34

Value

$32.5

PnL

+$0.16

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$30.06

Value

$29.69

PnL

-$0.37

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

Bossgirl<$100

Invested

$30.35

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$5.1

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$4.59

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.32

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.13

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$23.3

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.41

Value

$7.41

PnL

-$5

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$3.86

Value

$3.67

PnL

-$0.19

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$2.87

Value

$3.46

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

23 of 30 top traders (77%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.