Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

19 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$153.82

Smart Money Entry

65.5¢ → 100¢

+53% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 30 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,890

Combined PnL+$406.85

Down11 traders

Total Value$347.73

Total Shares1,176

Combined PnL-$253.03

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearned	Upavg 68.3¢	$540.7	$685.21	+$144.51	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 79¢	$416.17	$396.41	-$19.76	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 55.8¢	$251.66	$374.38	+$122.72	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 59.6¢	$273.89	$295.06	+$21.17	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 66.5¢	$303.19	$259.49	-$43.7	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
pspspsps5	Upavg 54.5¢	$152.04	$258.03	+$105.99	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR	Downavg 50¢	$204.1	$143.44	-$60.65	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$65.46	$95.85	+$30.39	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$94.24	$88.77	-$5.47	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$48.4	$79.96	+$31.56	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 90¢	$72.75	$75	+$2.25	49% 4190-4292 (8482)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 80.6¢	$59.2	$63.81	+$4.61	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.6¢	$37.41	$39.22	+$1.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.7¢	$21.79	$24.59	+$2.81
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Downavg 33.6¢	$90.47	$58.94	-$31.53	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$30.95	$44.39	+$13.44	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$79.8	$39.34	-$40.46	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$31	$39.11	+$8.11	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
BossgirlCTR<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$28.48	$27.27	-$1.21	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 77.1¢	$32.54	$24.28	-$8.26	57% 9930-7432 (17362)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 65.8¢	$24.25	$18.23	-$6.02	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$39.64	$17.21	-$22.42	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 28.7¢	$22.97	$16.1	-$6.87	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100	Downavg 28.7¢	$92.95	$15.99	-$76.96	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 72.4¢	$14.31	$14.83	+$0.51	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 90¢	$14.18	$14.1	-$0.08	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$6.2	$10	+$3.8	55% 51661-42834 (94495)

machinelearned

Invested

$540.7

Value

$685.21

PnL

+$144.51

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

ply-pm0

Invested

$416.17

Value

$396.41

PnL

-$19.76

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

Bonereaper

Invested

$251.66

Value

$374.38

PnL

+$122.72

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$273.89

Value

$295.06

PnL

+$21.17

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

1000monkeys

Invested

$303.19

Value

$259.49

PnL

-$43.7

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

pspspsps5

Invested

$152.04

Value

$258.03

PnL

+$105.99

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR

Down

Invested

$204.1

Value

$143.44

PnL

-$60.65

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$65.46

Value

$95.85

PnL

+$30.39

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$94.24

Value

$88.77

PnL

-$5.47

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$48.4

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$31.56

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$72.75

Value

$75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$59.2

Value

$63.81

PnL

+$4.61

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

Both legs:

Up$37.4180.6¢+$1.81

Down$21.7913.7¢+$2.81

stepaheadCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$90.47

Value

$58.94

PnL

-$31.53

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$30.95

Value

$44.39

PnL

+$13.44

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.8

Value

$39.34

PnL

-$40.46

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$31

Value

$39.11

PnL

+$8.11

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

BossgirlCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.48

Value

$27.27

PnL

-$1.21

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$32.54

Value

$24.28

PnL

-$8.26

Record

57%

9930-7432 (17362)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.25

Value

$18.23

PnL

-$6.02

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.64

Value

$17.21

PnL

-$22.42

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.97

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$6.87

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$92.95

Value

$15.99

PnL

-$76.96

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$14.31

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$0.51

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$14.18

Value

$14.1

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.8

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 30 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.