Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

18 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (69%) · Down at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 100¢

+74% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares9,845

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Up8 traders

Total Value$103.04

Total Shares852

Combined PnL-$41.82

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.7K	+$3.8K	56% 3963-3079 (7042)
machinelearned	Downavg 89.5¢	$369.8	$391.77	+$21.97	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 76.2¢	$216.89	$247.41	+$30.53	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 87.6¢	$223.85	$215.24	-$8.61	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 82.2¢	$210.93	$201.76	-$9.18	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 88.2¢	$167.56	$173.75	+$6.19	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 80¢	$139.23	$142.76	+$3.52	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 84¢	$107.52	$108.16	+$0.64	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$113.05	$108.04	-$5.01	59% 63904-45042 (108946)
13 13897651	Downavg 67¢	$136.8	$101.04	-$35.77	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 90.9¢	$83.48	$82.34	-$1.14	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 24.4¢	$89.46	$67.38	-$22.08	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.1¢	$37.22	$44.93	+$7.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.4¢	$52.24	$22.45	-$29.79
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 80¢	$50.84	$62	+$11.16	55% 52363-42830 (95193)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 80¢	$52.33	$61.98	+$9.65	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 92¢	$46	$44.75	-$1.25	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 59¢	$25.37	$42.98	+$17.61	57% 9930-7432 (17362)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$26.4	$32.4	+$6	12% 18918-134175 (153093)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 95¢	$23.75	$22.38	-$1.38	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 94.8¢	$18.96	$19.99	+$1.03	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
BossgirlCTR<$100	Upavg 23.2¢	$8.58	$18.69	+$10.1	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 16.9¢	$16.94	$15.5	-$1.44	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 93¢	$15.94	$15.34	-$0.6	74% 105089-37085 (142174)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 10.4¢	$16.99	$8.52	-$8.47	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$3	$7.87	+$4.87	49% 4190-4292 (8482)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$61.08	$7.02	-$54.06	52% 10448-9456 (19904)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$3,831.22

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

56%

3963-3079 (7042)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$369.8

Value

$391.77

PnL

+$21.97

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$216.89

Value

$247.41

PnL

+$30.53

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$223.85

Value

$215.24

PnL

-$8.61

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$210.93

Value

$201.76

PnL

-$9.18

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$167.56

Value

$173.75

PnL

+$6.19

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$139.23

Value

$142.76

PnL

+$3.52

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$107.52

Value

$108.16

PnL

+$0.64

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$113.05

Value

$108.04

PnL

-$5.01

Record

59%

63904-45042 (108946)

13897651

Down

Invested

$136.8

Value

$101.04

PnL

-$35.77

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$83.48

Value

$82.34

PnL

-$1.14

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$89.46

Value

$67.38

PnL

-$22.08

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

Both legs:

Down$37.2274.1¢+$7.71

Up$52.2424.4¢-$29.79

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$50.84

Value

$62

PnL

+$11.16

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$52.33

Value

$61.98

PnL

+$9.65

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$46

Value

$44.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$25.37

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$17.61

Record

57%

9930-7432 (17362)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$6

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$23.75

Value

$22.38

PnL

-$1.38

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$18.96

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$1.03

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

BossgirlCTR<$100

Invested

$8.58

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$10.1

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$16.94

Value

$15.5

PnL

-$1.44

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$15.94

Value

$15.34

PnL

-$0.6

Record

74%

105089-37085 (142174)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$16.99

Value

$8.52

PnL

-$8.47

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$7.87

PnL

+$4.87

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Invested

$61.08

Value

$7.02

PnL

-$54.06

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.