Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

16 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Up22¢Down78¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$7.97

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 78.5¢

+45% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up22%

Down79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,836

Combined PnL+$3.69

Up4 traders

Total Value$71.47

Total Shares135

Combined PnL+$4.29

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xNuttawut	Downavg 53.5¢	$1.1K	$990	-$79.98	51% 1232-1198 (2430)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$324.43	$394.44	+$70	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$189.51	$299.89	+$110.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.7¢	$134.92	$94.55	-$40.37
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 55.8¢	$263.83	$315.75	+$51.92	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
machinelearned	Downavg 48.1¢	$293.32	$286.31	-$7.01	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$223.3	$237.94	+$14.63	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$148.27	$189.81	+$41.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$75.03	$48.13	-$26.91
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$172.34	$173.92	+$1.58	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$115.13	$137.57	+$22.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$57.21	$36.35	-$20.86
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 45¢	$83.65	$103.48	+$19.84	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$49.09	$81.75	+$32.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.8¢	$34.56	$21.73	-$12.83
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 73.7¢	$92.7	$92.47	-$0.23	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$87.62	$78.43	-$9.19	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$61.6	$76.57	+$14.97	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
ST stepahead<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$77.6	$71.17	-$6.43	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$70.3	$71.02	+$0.72	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 52¢	$48.29	$60.39	+$12.11	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 54¢	$39.82	$55.02	+$15.2	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 43¢	$26.66	$48.67	+$22.01	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$36.8	$42	+$5.2	12% 18918-134175 (153093)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$38.51	$36.85	-$1.66	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$38.8	$33.38	-$5.42	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 66¢	$27.02	$25.18	-$1.84	55% 52363-42830 (95193)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$20.7	$20.2	-$0.5	63% 42458-25196 (67654)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 54.7¢	$13.69	$13.13	-$0.56	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 66¢	$13.75	$12.81	-$0.94	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$7.91	$7.35	-$0.56	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 35.6¢	$1.78	$1.93	+$0.15	52% 12342-11390 (23732)

0xNuttawut

Down

Invested

$1,069.98

Value

$990

PnL

-$79.98

Record

51%

1232-1198 (2430)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$324.43

Value

$394.44

PnL

+$70

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

Both legs:

Down$189.5149.6¢+$110.38

Up$134.9230.7¢-$40.37

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$263.83

Value

$315.75

PnL

+$51.92

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$293.32

Value

$286.31

PnL

-$7.01

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$223.3

Value

$237.94

PnL

+$14.63

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

Both legs:

Down$148.2753.5¢+$41.54

Up$75.0349.1¢-$26.91

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$172.34

Value

$173.92

PnL

+$1.58

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

Both legs:

Down$115.1362.8¢+$22.44

Up$57.2139.3¢-$20.86

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.65

Value

$103.48

PnL

+$19.84

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

Both legs:

Invested

$92.7

Value

$92.47

PnL

-$0.23

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$87.62

Value

$78.43

PnL

-$9.19

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$61.6

Value

$76.57

PnL

+$14.97

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

stepahead<$100

Down

Invested

$77.6

Value

$71.17

PnL

-$6.43

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$70.3

Value

$71.02

PnL

+$0.72

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$48.29

Value

$60.39

PnL

+$12.11

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$39.82

Value

$55.02

PnL

+$15.2

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$26.66

Value

$48.67

PnL

+$22.01

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$36.8

Value

$42

PnL

+$5.2

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$38.51

Value

$36.85

PnL

-$1.66

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$38.8

Value

$33.38

PnL

-$5.42

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$27.02

Value

$25.18

PnL

-$1.84

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.2

PnL

-$0.5

Record

63%

42458-25196 (67654)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$13.69

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$0.56

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$13.75

Value

$12.81

PnL

-$0.94

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$7.91

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$0.56

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

12342-11390 (23732)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.6%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.