Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

23 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Down (77%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$48.12

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 30 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,887

Combined PnL+$17.5

Up7 traders

Total Value$981.47

Total Shares1,841

Combined PnL+$30.63

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$3.55	48% 10624-11292 (21916)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 51.5¢	$821.74	$869.76	+$48.02	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 68.1¢	$472.76	$406.36	-$66.4	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
machinelearned	Downavg 74.3¢	$331.29	$349.87	+$18.58	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 69¢	$416.06	$327.36	-$88.7	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99.1¢	$310.3	$312.96	+$2.66	89% 29392-3557 (32949)
pspspsps5	Downavg 58.2¢	$197.08	$274.34	+$77.26	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 57.6¢	$189.33	$216.18	+$26.85	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$200.98	$193.57	-$7.4	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$144.25	$151.08	+$6.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$56.72	$42.49	-$14.23
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.8¢	$132.76	$141.82	+$9.06	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$107.91	$107.85	-$0.06	59% 63904-45042 (108946)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 89.6¢	$95.88	$94.7	-$1.18	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$78.86	$90	+$11.14	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 94¢	$75.25	$80.01	+$4.76	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$60.65	$72.72	+$12.07	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 44.3¢	$59.43	$55.03	-$4.4	57% 9930-7432 (17362)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 6.8¢	$50.11	$51.02	+$0.91	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$21.92	$28.35	+$6.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.8¢	$28.19	$22.67	-$5.52
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$31.86	$37.27	+$5.42	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 97.2¢	$33.73	$32.79	-$0.94	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 42.2¢	$38.2	$30.01	-$8.18	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$24.26	$28.76	+$4.5	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
ST stepahead<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$24.84	$23.76	-$1.08	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$23.02	$23.53	+$0.51	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 47.7¢	$19.07	$15	-$4.07	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$14.33	$13.71	-$0.62	56% 8820-6894 (15714)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$1,003.17

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$3.55

Record

48%

10624-11292 (21916)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$821.74

Value

$869.76

PnL

+$48.02

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$472.76

Value

$406.36

PnL

-$66.4

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$331.29

Value

$349.87

PnL

+$18.58

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$416.06

Value

$327.36

PnL

-$88.7

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$310.3

Value

$312.96

PnL

+$2.66

Record

89%

29392-3557 (32949)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$197.08

Value

$274.34

PnL

+$77.26

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$189.33

Value

$216.18

PnL

+$26.85

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$200.98

Value

$193.57

PnL

-$7.4

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

Both legs:

Down$144.2554.9¢+$6.83

Up$56.7256.7¢-$14.23

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$132.76

Value

$141.82

PnL

+$9.06

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$107.91

Value

$107.85

PnL

-$0.06

Record

59%

63904-45042 (108946)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$95.88

Value

$94.7

PnL

-$1.18

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$78.86

Value

$90

PnL

+$11.14

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$75.25

Value

$80.01

PnL

+$4.76

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$60.65

Value

$72.72

PnL

+$12.07

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$59.43

Value

$55.03

PnL

-$4.4

Record

57%

9930-7432 (17362)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$50.11

Value

$51.02

PnL

+$0.91

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

Both legs:

Down$21.9273.1¢+$6.43

Up$28.196.8¢-$5.52

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$31.86

Value

$37.27

PnL

+$5.42

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$33.73

Value

$32.79

PnL

-$0.94

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$38.2

Value

$30.01

PnL

-$8.18

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$24.26

Value

$28.76

PnL

+$4.5

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

stepahead<$100

Down

Invested

$24.84

Value

$23.76

PnL

-$1.08

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$23.02

Value

$23.53

PnL

+$0.51

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$19.07

Value

$15

PnL

-$4.07

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$14.33

Value

$13.71

PnL

-$0.62

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 30 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.