Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 9 of 27 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

9 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Up (33%) · Up at 0.5¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$264.93

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 27 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$920.24

Total Shares1,761

Combined PnL+$7.3

Down18 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,245

Combined PnL+$257.63

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 60¢	$539.67	$553.47	+$13.8	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 59.1¢	$466.72	$450.85	-$15.86	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 55.6¢	$231.08	$279.92	+$48.83	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 45.1¢	$199.69	$259.37	+$59.68	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 38.1¢	$221.9	$244.42	+$22.52	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.1¢	$164.4	$187.92	+$23.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$57.5	$56.5	-$1
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 57.9¢	$221.54	$203.66	-$17.88	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
ST stepahead	Downavg 42.9¢	$122.83	$182.83	+$60	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 95.7¢	$171.43	$177.12	+$5.69	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 43.4¢	$99.23	$144.74	+$45.51	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 44.5¢	$70.97	$130.07	+$59.1	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 71.3¢	$95.3	$119.2	+$23.9	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$98.17	$76.81	-$21.36	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$47.55	$76.4	+$28.85	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 83¢	$51.46	$61.69	+$10.23	55% 52363-42830 (95193)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 83¢	$51.46	$61.69	+$10.23	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 83¢	$51.46	$61.69	+$10.23	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$19.61	$38.58	+$18.96	63% 42458-25196 (67654)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Upavg 23.5¢	$24.76	$32.53	+$7.77	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$86	$30.54	-$55.45	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 38¢	$30.4	$30	-$0.4	12% 18918-134175 (153093)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$26.45	$25.45	-$1	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$32.06	$20.88	-$11.18	57% 9930-7432 (17362)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$16.39	$14.81	-$1.58	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 41¢	$2.05	$4.98	+$2.93	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 40.7¢	$5.08	$4.94	-$0.15	65% 114604-61650 (176254)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$539.67

Value

$553.47

PnL

+$13.8

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$466.72

Value

$450.85

PnL

-$15.86

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$231.08

Value

$279.92

PnL

+$48.83

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$199.69

Value

$259.37

PnL

+$59.68

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.9

Value

$244.42

PnL

+$22.52

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

Both legs:

Down$164.438.1¢+$23.52

Up$57.557.5¢-$1

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$221.54

Value

$203.66

PnL

-$17.88

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$122.83

Value

$182.83

PnL

+$60

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$171.43

Value

$177.12

PnL

+$5.69

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$99.23

Value

$144.74

PnL

+$45.51

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$70.97

Value

$130.07

PnL

+$59.1

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$95.3

Value

$119.2

PnL

+$23.9

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$98.17

Value

$76.81

PnL

-$21.36

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$47.55

Value

$76.4

PnL

+$28.85

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$51.46

Value

$61.69

PnL

+$10.23

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$51.46

Value

$61.69

PnL

+$10.23

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$51.46

Value

$61.69

PnL

+$10.23

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$19.61

Value

$38.58

PnL

+$18.96

Record

63%

42458-25196 (67654)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Invested

$24.76

Value

$32.53

PnL

+$7.77

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$86

Value

$30.54

PnL

-$55.45

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$30.4

Value

$30

PnL

-$0.4

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$26.45

Value

$25.45

PnL

-$1

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$32.06

Value

$20.88

PnL

-$11.18

Record

57%

9930-7432 (17362)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$16.39

Value

$14.81

PnL

-$1.58

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$2.05

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$2.93

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$5.08

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.15

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 27 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6136.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

6236.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.