Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

20 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Up (77%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$327.23

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 100¢

+48% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 26 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,958

Combined PnL+$353.72

Down6 traders

Total Value$198.53

Total Shares877

Combined PnL-$26.49

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 69.6¢	$447.54	$514.36	+$66.81	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 62.4¢	$417.14	$462.02	+$44.89	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 59.4¢	$418.53	$444.05	+$25.52	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
pspspsps5	Upavg 55.9¢	$196.29	$324.66	+$128.36	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 70.9¢	$129.33	$148.28	+$18.95	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 34.6¢	$180.88	$147.38	-$33.51	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$150.73	$138.84	-$11.88	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$99.13	$94.2	-$4.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$51.59	$44.64	-$6.95
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 65¢	$121.02	$135.94	+$14.91	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
Bossgirl	Upavg 65.7¢	$96.62	$124.21	+$27.6	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 64.8¢	$120.86	$110.87	-$9.99	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.8¢	$63.58	$82.85	+$19.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$57.28	$28.01	-$29.27
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$107.9	$107.96	+$0.05	59% 63904-45042 (108946)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 63.7¢	$104.04	$96.04	-$8	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 78¢	$60.05	$76.16	+$16.12	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 81.6¢	$54.63	$66.9	+$12.27	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 93.9¢	$63.17	$62.89	-$0.28	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 76¢	$65.43	$61.55	-$3.88	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 85¢	$53.55	$53.87	+$0.32	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$35.72	$46.9	+$11.18	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100	Downavg 9.8¢	$44.25	$29.35	-$14.91	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$28.66	$25.17	-$3.49	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 94.4¢	$23.6	$22.38	-$1.22	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$21.02	$20.6	-$0.42	63% 42458-25196 (67654)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$19.39	$17.88	-$1.51	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$5.15	$10	+$4.85	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 78.8¢	$2.61	$2.9	+$0.29	65% 130321-70183 (200504)

Bonereaper

Invested

$447.54

Value

$514.36

PnL

+$66.81

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

ply-pm0

Invested

$417.14

Value

$462.02

PnL

+$44.89

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

1000monkeys

Invested

$418.53

Value

$444.05

PnL

+$25.52

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

pspspsps5

Invested

$196.29

Value

$324.66

PnL

+$128.36

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

blue.birds

Invested

$129.33

Value

$148.28

PnL

+$18.95

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$180.88

Value

$147.38

PnL

-$33.51

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$150.73

Value

$138.84

PnL

-$11.88

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

Both legs:

Up$99.1356.3¢-$4.93

Down$51.5953.7¢-$6.95

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$121.02

Value

$135.94

PnL

+$14.91

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

Bossgirl

Invested

$96.62

Value

$124.21

PnL

+$27.6

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$120.86

Value

$110.87

PnL

-$9.99

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

Both legs:

Up$63.5864.8¢+$19.27

Down$57.2831.7¢-$29.27

0x50f7

Invested

$107.9

Value

$107.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

63904-45042 (108946)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$104.04

Value

$96.04

PnL

-$8

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$60.05

Value

$76.16

PnL

+$16.12

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$54.63

Value

$66.9

PnL

+$12.27

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$63.17

Value

$62.89

PnL

-$0.28

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$65.43

Value

$61.55

PnL

-$3.88

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$53.55

Value

$53.87

PnL

+$0.32

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$35.72

Value

$46.9

PnL

+$11.18

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.25

Value

$29.35

PnL

-$14.91

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$28.66

Value

$25.17

PnL

-$3.49

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$23.6

Value

$22.38

PnL

-$1.22

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.02

Value

$20.6

PnL

-$0.42

Record

63%

42458-25196 (67654)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$19.39

Value

$17.88

PnL

-$1.51

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.85

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.29

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 26 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.