Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

18 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$333.91

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 28 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,606

Combined PnL-$153.39

Down10 traders

Total Value$125.73

Total Shares828

Combined PnL-$180.52

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 83.6¢	$591.44	$534.15	-$57.29	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 92.1¢	$348.54	$309.88	-$38.66	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 76.7¢	$327.33	$309.29	-$18.05	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 69.8¢	$348.8	$292.01	-$56.79	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 76.8¢	$274.49	$273.64	-$0.85	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
pspspsps5	Upavg 75.4¢	$174.06	$189.34	+$15.28	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$191.6	$182.08	-$9.52	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$116.53	$131.8	+$15.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$75.07	$50.28	-$24.79
BL blue.birds	Upavg 80.3¢	$159.51	$154.84	-$4.67	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 70.1¢	$100.69	$102.99	+$2.3	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 69.2¢	$102.31	$99.08	-$3.24	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
Bossgirl<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$74.27	$88.74	+$14.46	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$79.48	$85.66	+$6.18	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$45.02	$49.55	+$4.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.8¢	$34.46	$36.11	+$1.65
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 37.3¢	$150.98	$84.39	-$66.59	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.5¢	$43.36	$45.45	+$2.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$107.63	$38.95	-$68.68
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 31.9¢	$70.28	$73.18	+$2.9	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.9¢	$42.57	$39.34	-$3.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$27.71	$33.84	+$6.13
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$59.11	$56.94	-$2.18	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 38.4¢	$87.92	$49.09	-$38.83	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 17.8¢	$47.26	$38.57	-$8.69	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 59.7¢	$37.2	$31.44	-$5.76	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$34.55	$25.2	-$9.35	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 92.5¢	$22.19	$23.4	+$1.21	75% 9893-3307 (13200)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 60¢	$17.73	$20.12	+$2.39	12% 18918-134175 (153093)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 95¢	$19.87	$19.77	-$0.1	49% 4190-4292 (8482)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 75¢	$18.75	$17.63	-$1.12	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 39.6¢	$9.91	$7.88	-$2.04	63% 42458-25196 (67654)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$5.08	$4.83	-$0.25	65% 114604-61650 (176254)

ply-pm0

Invested

$591.44

Value

$534.15

PnL

-$57.29

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$348.54

Value

$309.88

PnL

-$38.66

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

1000monkeys

Invested

$327.33

Value

$309.29

PnL

-$18.05

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$348.8

Value

$292.01

PnL

-$56.79

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

asdcaxz

Invested

$274.49

Value

$273.64

PnL

-$0.85

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

pspspsps5

Invested

$174.06

Value

$189.34

PnL

+$15.28

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$191.6

Value

$182.08

PnL

-$9.52

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

Both legs:

Up$116.5366.8¢+$15.27

Down$75.0736.6¢-$24.79

blue.birds

Invested

$159.51

Value

$154.84

PnL

-$4.67

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

GoodFallen

Invested

$100.69

Value

$102.99

PnL

+$2.3

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$102.31

Value

$99.08

PnL

-$3.24

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

Bossgirl<$100

Invested

$74.27

Value

$88.74

PnL

+$14.46

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$79.48

Value

$85.66

PnL

+$6.18

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

Both legs:

Up$45.0257.7¢+$4.53

Down$34.4634.8¢+$1.65

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150.98

Value

$84.39

PnL

-$66.59

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

Both legs:

Up$43.3682.5¢+$2.09

Down$107.6337.3¢-$68.68

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$70.28

Value

$73.18

PnL

+$2.9

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

Both legs:

Down$42.5731.9¢-$3.23

Up$27.7157.7¢+$6.13

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$59.11

Value

$56.94

PnL

-$2.18

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$87.92

Value

$49.09

PnL

-$38.83

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.26

Value

$38.57

PnL

-$8.69

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

13897651<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

$31.44

PnL

-$5.76

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.55

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$9.35

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$22.19

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$1.21

Record

75%

9893-3307 (13200)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$17.73

Value

$20.12

PnL

+$2.39

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$19.87

Value

$19.77

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$18.75

Value

$17.63

PnL

-$1.12

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.91

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$2.04

Record

63%

42458-25196 (67654)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.08

Value

$4.83

PnL

-$0.25

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 28 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.