Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 17 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

17 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Down (68%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$59.87

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,933

Combined PnL-$208.14

Up8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,824

Combined PnL+$148.27

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 59.9¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$120.74	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 47.5¢	$947.18	$1.1K	+$168.91	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Downavg 54.3¢	$899.3	$955.9	+$56.6	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
10 1000monkeysCTR	Downavg 62.2¢	$864.62	$841	-$23.62	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 64.9¢	$500.59	$550.29	+$49.69	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 67.7¢	$375.63	$349.19	-$26.44	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$379.94	$339.87	-$40.07	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$208.95	$212.77	+$3.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$171	$127.11	-$43.89
BL blue.birds	Upavg 48.8¢	$287.81	$328.25	+$40.44	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Downavg 56.2¢	$289.26	$320.67	+$31.42	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$305.77	$280.61	-$25.16	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$127.48	$142.44	+$14.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.8¢	$178.28	$138.17	-$40.12
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 41.9¢	$330.24	$227.54	-$102.7	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$119.38	$159.53	+$40.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.9¢	$210.86	$68.01	-$142.84
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 62.2¢	$202.29	$193.46	-$8.83	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Downavg 61.1¢	$149.89	$187.61	+$37.72	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$231.69	$174.19	-$57.5	75% 9893-3307 (13200)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74¢	$78.43	$88.51	+$10.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$153.26	$85.68	-$67.58
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$160.34	$144	-$16.34	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$78.59	$77.04	-$1.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$81.75	$66.96	-$14.79
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 46.7¢	$345.45	$119.18	-$226.27	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
13 13897651CTR	Downavg 66.7¢	$126.88	$103.56	-$23.33	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 31.1¢	$83.91	$86.08	+$2.17	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$64.41	$65.27	+$0.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$19.5	$20.81	+$1.31
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 46.8¢	$74.28	$61.69	-$12.59	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.8¢	$54.38	$33.09	-$21.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$19.9	$28.6	+$8.7
BossgirlARB<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$81.77	$58.43	-$23.35	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.4¢	$34.21	$29.67	-$4.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.7¢	$47.56	$28.76	-$18.8
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Downavg 75¢	$56.25	$55.88	-$0.38	49% 4190-4292 (8482)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 51.2¢	$44.31	$45.55	+$1.24	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$54.27	$44.89	-$9.38	63% 42458-25196 (67654)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$48.97	$44.85	-$4.12	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$27.87	$24.25	-$3.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$21.1	$20.6	-$0.5
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 39¢	$31.64	$44.12	+$12.47	12% 18918-134175 (153093)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,137.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$120.74

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

ply-pm0

Invested

$947.18

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$168.91

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

asdcaxzCTR

Down

Invested

$899.3

Value

$955.9

PnL

+$56.6

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

1000monkeysCTR

Down

Invested

$864.62

Value

$841

PnL

-$23.62

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$500.59

Value

$550.29

PnL

+$49.69

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$375.63

Value

$349.19

PnL

-$26.44

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$379.94

Value

$339.87

PnL

-$40.07

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

Both legs:

Down$208.9559.9¢+$3.82

Up$17152.5¢-$43.89

blue.birds

Invested

$287.81

Value

$328.25

PnL

+$40.44

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Down

Invested

$289.26

Value

$320.67

PnL

+$31.42

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$305.77

Value

$280.61

PnL

-$25.16

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

Both legs:

Down$127.4857.7¢+$14.96

Up$178.2845.8¢-$40.12

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$330.24

Value

$227.54

PnL

-$102.7

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

Both legs:

Down$119.3864.7¢+$40.14

Up$210.8641.9¢-$142.84

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$202.29

Value

$193.46

PnL

-$8.83

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Down

Invested

$149.89

Value

$187.61

PnL

+$37.72

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$231.69

Value

$174.19

PnL

-$57.5

Record

75%

9893-3307 (13200)

Both legs:

Down$78.4374¢+$10.08

Up$153.2629.5¢-$67.58

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160.34

Value

$144

PnL

-$16.34

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

Both legs:

Up$78.5954.6¢-$1.55

Down$81.7556.8¢-$14.79

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$345.45

Value

$119.18

PnL

-$226.27

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

13897651CTR

Down

Invested

$126.88

Value

$103.56

PnL

-$23.33

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$83.91

Value

$86.08

PnL

+$2.17

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

Both legs:

Up$64.4131.1¢+$0.86

Down$19.564.2¢+$1.31

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$74.28

Value

$61.69

PnL

-$12.59

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

Both legs:

Up$54.3846.8¢-$21.29

Down$19.949.7¢+$8.7

BossgirlARB<$100

Invested

$81.77

Value

$58.43

PnL

-$23.35

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

Both legs:

Down$34.2174.4¢-$4.54

Up$47.5658.7¢-$18.8

PapeasyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.25

Value

$55.88

PnL

-$0.38

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$44.31

Value

$45.55

PnL

+$1.24

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$54.27

Value

$44.89

PnL

-$9.38

Record

63%

42458-25196 (67654)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$48.97

Value

$44.85

PnL

-$4.12

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

Both legs:

Up$27.8755.7¢-$3.62

Down$21.152.7¢-$0.5

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$31.64

Value

$44.12

PnL

+$12.47

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 25 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.