Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 13 of 29 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

13 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Up (45%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$372.62

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,855

Combined PnL+$91.25

Down16 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,891

Combined PnL+$281.38

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 46¢	$557.1	$744.63	+$187.53	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 62.8¢	$584.29	$641.52	+$57.23	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
machinelearned	Downavg 50.2¢	$386.39	$598.92	+$212.53	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 65.1¢	$535.61	$545.37	+$9.76	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.1¢	$343.69	$435.7	+$92
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.6¢	$191.92	$109.68	-$82.24
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 36.1¢	$600.88	$538.6	-$62.28	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
10 1000monkeysCTR	Upavg 57.3¢	$347.92	$357.93	+$10.01	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 73.4¢	$255.47	$353.97	+$98.5	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 69.5¢	$358.21	$335.91	-$22.3	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 51.7¢	$469.43	$321.36	-$148.07	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 46.5¢	$104.54	$159.9	+$215.34	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 29.7¢	$147.96	$140.47	-$7.49	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.5¢	$70.87	$95.06	+$24.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.7¢	$77.09	$45.41	-$31.68
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 59.1¢	$93.65	$98.53	+$4.88	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.1¢	$53.15	$68.85	+$15.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.1¢	$40.5	$29.68	-$10.82
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$49.25	$78.8	+$29.55	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$133.52	$74.12	-$59.4	12% 18918-134175 (153093)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$104	$40.8	-$63.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$29.52	$33.32	+$3.8
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$70.25	$70.21	-$0.04	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$71.16	$62.16	-$9	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 61.7¢	$100.8	$54.14	-$46.66	57% 9930-7432 (17362)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$58.41	$47.39	-$11.02	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 37.8¢	$60.51	$38.06	-$22.44	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 34¢	$85.81	$35.93	-$49.88	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$56.82	$34.35	-$22.47	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$36.34	$33.62	-$2.73	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 28.3¢	$34.87	$33.13	-$1.75	63% 42458-25196 (67654)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 89.5¢	$21.48	$23.99	+$2.51	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 90.6¢	$21.75	$23.99	+$2.24	55% 52363-42830 (95193)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$557.1

Value

$744.63

PnL

+$187.53

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$584.29

Value

$641.52

PnL

+$57.23

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$386.39

Value

$598.92

PnL

+$212.53

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$535.61

Value

$545.37

PnL

+$9.76

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

Both legs:

Up$343.6965.1¢+$92

Down$191.9230.6¢-$82.24

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$600.88

Value

$538.6

PnL

-$62.28

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

1000monkeysCTR

Invested

$347.92

Value

$357.93

PnL

+$10.01

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$255.47

Value

$353.97

PnL

+$98.5

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$358.21

Value

$335.91

PnL

-$22.3

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$469.43

Value

$321.36

PnL

-$148.07

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$104.54

Value

$159.9

PnL

+$215.34

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$147.96

Value

$140.47

PnL

-$7.49

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

Both legs:

Up$70.8761.5¢+$24.19

Down$77.0929.7¢-$31.68

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$93.65

Value

$98.53

PnL

+$4.88

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

Both legs:

Up$53.1559.1¢+$15.7

Down$40.532.1¢-$10.82

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$49.25

Value

$78.8

PnL

+$29.55

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$133.52

Value

$74.12

PnL

-$59.4

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

Both legs:

Down$10465¢-$63.2

Up$29.5266¢+$3.8

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$70.25

Value

$70.21

PnL

-$0.04

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

stepaheadCTR<$100

Invested

$71.16

Value

$62.16

PnL

-$9

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$100.8

Value

$54.14

PnL

-$46.66

Record

57%

9930-7432 (17362)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$58.41

Value

$47.39

PnL

-$11.02

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$60.51

Value

$38.06

PnL

-$22.44

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$85.81

Value

$35.93

PnL

-$49.88

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$56.82

Value

$34.35

PnL

-$22.47

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$36.34

Value

$33.62

PnL

-$2.73

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$34.87

Value

$33.13

PnL

-$1.75

Record

63%

42458-25196 (67654)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$21.48

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$2.51

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$21.75

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$2.24

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.