Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$491.79

Smart Money Signal

31 of 35 top traders (89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up31 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,228

Combined PnL+$622.35

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares514

Combined PnL-$130.56

Up — 89%Down — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 70.9¢	$907.18	$1.0K	+$139.25	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 71.6¢	$532.22	$580.75	+$48.53	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 81.6¢	$580.23	$581.25	+$1.02	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 63.6¢	$365.26	$543.48	+$178.23	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
pspspsps5	Upavg 84.5¢	$328.03	$341.01	+$12.98	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$240.32	$242.75	+$2.43	89% 29392-3557 (32949)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 79¢	$312.96	$199.99	-$112.96	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79¢	$157.99	$199.99	+$42
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.9¢	$154.96	—	-$154.96
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 75.8¢	$228.6	$161	-$67.6	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.8¢	$122.09	$161	+$38.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.2¢	$106.51	—	-$106.51
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 81.4¢	$212.96	$214.03	+$1.08	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 76.1¢	$172.84	$199.16	+$26.32	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
ST stepahead	Upavg 82.1¢	$153.58	$168	+$14.42	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 65¢	$128.36	$160	+$31.64	12% 18918-134175 (153093)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 41.8¢	$149.98	$60.15	-$89.82	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.8¢	$108.94	—	-$108.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.2¢	$41.03	$60.15	+$19.12
BO bosona	Upavg 69.1¢	$91.41	$102.09	+$10.68	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
AL almach	Upavg 71.8¢	$93.2	$102	+$8.8	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$96.11	$98.3	+$2.2	55% 52363-42830 (95193)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 76.8¢	$96.84	$92.47	-$4.37	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 70.1¢	$79.18	$96.27	+$17.09	49% 4190-4292 (8482)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$66.51	$89.4	+$22.89	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489<$100	Upavg 71.5¢	$64.27	$89.92	+$25.65	75% 273-92 (365)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 78.1¢	$65.81	$84.31	+$18.5	57% 9930-7432 (17362)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 76.8¢	$64.06	$83.42	+$19.36	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 72¢	$46.26	$60	+$13.74	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 85¢	$44.16	$51.96	+$7.8	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 80¢	$36.7	$34.65	-$2.04	56% 60575-47128 (107703)

ply-pm0

Invested

$907.18

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$139.25

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

1000monkeys

Invested

$532.22

Value

$580.75

PnL

+$48.53

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

asdcaxz

Invested

$580.23

Value

$581.25

PnL

+$1.02

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$365.26

Value

$543.48

PnL

+$178.23

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

pspspsps5

Invested

$328.03

Value

$341.01

PnL

+$12.98

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

hoodquant

Invested

$240.32

Value

$242.75

PnL

+$2.43

Record

89%

29392-3557 (32949)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$312.96

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$112.96

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

Both legs:

Up$157.9979¢+$42

Down$154.9618.9¢-$154.96

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$228.6

Value

$161

PnL

-$67.6

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

Both legs:

Up$122.0975.8¢+$38.91

Down$106.5120.2¢-$106.51

Bonereaper

Invested

$212.96

Value

$214.03

PnL

+$1.08

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

blue.birds

Invested

$172.84

Value

$199.16

PnL

+$26.32

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

stepahead

Invested

$153.58

Value

$168

PnL

+$14.42

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$128.36

Value

$160

PnL

+$31.64

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$149.98

Value

$60.15

PnL

-$89.82

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

Both legs:

Down$108.9441.8¢-$108.94

Up$41.0368.2¢+$19.12

bosona

Invested

$91.41

Value

$102.09

PnL

+$10.68

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

almach

Invested

$93.2

Value

$102

PnL

+$8.8

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$96.11

Value

$98.3

PnL

+$2.2

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$96.84

Value

$92.47

PnL

-$4.37

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$79.18

Value

$96.27

PnL

+$17.09

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$66.51

Value

$89.4

PnL

+$22.89

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489<$100

Invested

$64.27

Value

$89.92

PnL

+$25.65

Record

75%

273-92 (365)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$65.81

Value

$84.31

PnL

+$18.5

Record

57%

9930-7432 (17362)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$64.06

Value

$83.42

PnL

+$19.36

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$46.26

Value

$60

PnL

+$13.74

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$44.16

Value

$51.96

PnL

+$7.8

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

$34.65

PnL

-$2.04

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

Smart Money Signal

31 of 35 top traders (89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6bcedbdd...fdf637

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794018300

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Up — $1.0K

+$139.25

1000monkeys

Up — $580.75

+$48.53

asdcaxz

Up — $581.25

+$1.02

CrouchPredictions

Up — $543.48

+$178.23

pspspsps5

Up — $341.01

+$12.98

hoodquant

Up — $242.75

+$2.43

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$112.96

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$67.6

Bonereaper

Up — $214.03

+$1.08

blue.birds

Up — $199.16

+$26.32

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