Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 36 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,932

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares423

Combined PnL-$244.44

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 35.6¢	$492.62	$750	+$257.38	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 41.1¢	$293.01	$551.09	+$258.08	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
machinelearned	Downavg 53.1¢	$393.52	$501.95	+$108.42	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
pspspsps5	Downavg 57.4¢	$414.39	$453.25	+$38.86	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 41.8¢	$212.68	$460.95	+$248.27	12% 18918-134175 (153093)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$494.97	$351.64	-$143.33	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$161.4	$351.64	+$190.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.9¢	$333.57	—	-$333.57
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 53.4¢	$312.6	$379.87	+$67.27	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 69¢	$290.16	$339.79	+$49.63	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 30¢	$275.99	$300	+$324.01	75% 273-92 (365)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 55.4¢	$198.25	$245.05	+$46.81	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
ST stepahead	Downavg 45.1¢	$173.67	$245.31	+$71.64	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 51¢	$156.99	$240.29	+$83.3	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
BossgirlARB<$100	Upavg 65.8¢	$451.04	$71	-$380.04	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.8¢	$392.71	—	-$392.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.2¢	$58.33	$71	+$12.67
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 64¢	$202.54	$195.13	-$7.41	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 68.7¢	$228.21	$169.61	-$58.6	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$157.85	$158.01	+$0.16	59% 63904-45042 (108946)
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 48.4¢	$130.85	$124	-$6.85	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.4¢	$89.93	—	-$89.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$40.92	$124	+$83.08
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$133.75	$134.95	+$1.2	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$70.43	—	-$70.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$63.32	$134.95	+$71.63
PA Papeasy	Downavg 80.5¢	$128.19	$150	+$21.81	49% 4190-4292 (8482)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 30.3¢	$60.55	$199.51	+$138.96	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 45.9¢	$54.38	$80	+$25.62	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$45.85	$69.02	+$23.17	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 45.1¢	$112.68	—	-$112.68	55% 52363-42830 (95193)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$66.08	—	-$66.08	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$24.65	$50.33	+$25.68	63% 42458-25196 (67654)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$492.62

Value

$750

PnL

+$257.38

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$293.01

Value

$551.09

PnL

+$258.08

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$393.52

Value

$501.95

PnL

+$108.42

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$414.39

Value

$453.25

PnL

+$38.86

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$212.68

Value

$460.95

PnL

+$248.27

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$494.97

Value

$351.64

PnL

-$143.33

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

Both legs:

Down$161.445.9¢+$190.24

Up$333.5752.9¢-$333.57

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$312.6

Value

$379.87

PnL

+$67.27

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$290.16

Value

$339.79

PnL

+$49.63

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$275.99

Value

$300

PnL

+$324.01

Record

75%

273-92 (365)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$198.25

Value

$245.05

PnL

+$46.81

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$173.67

Value

$245.31

PnL

+$71.64

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$156.99

Value

$240.29

PnL

+$83.3

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

BossgirlARB<$100

Invested

$451.04

Value

$71

PnL

-$380.04

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

Both legs:

Up$392.7165.8¢-$392.71

Down$58.3382.2¢+$12.67

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$202.54

Value

$195.13

PnL

-$7.41

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$228.21

Value

$169.61

PnL

-$58.6

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$157.85

Value

$158.01

PnL

+$0.16

Record

59%

63904-45042 (108946)

almachARB<$100

Invested

$130.85

Value

$124

PnL

-$6.85

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

Both legs:

Up$89.9348.4¢-$89.93

Down$40.9233¢+$83.08

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$133.75

Value

$134.95

PnL

+$1.2

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

Both legs:

Up$70.4354.2¢-$70.43

Down$63.3246.9¢+$71.63

Papeasy

Down

Invested

$128.19

Value

$150

PnL

+$21.81

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$60.55

Value

$199.51

PnL

+$138.96

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$54.38

Value

$80

PnL

+$25.62

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$45.85

Value

$69.02

PnL

+$23.17

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$112.68

Value

—

PnL

-$112.68

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$66.08

Value

—

PnL

-$66.08

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$24.65

Value

$50.33

PnL

+$25.68

Record

63%

42458-25196 (67654)

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 36 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x4c04ec45...82898c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794018000

Traders in this Market

ply-pm0

Down — $750

+$257.38

CrouchPredictions

Down — $551.09

+$258.08

machinelearned

Down — $501.95

+$108.42

pspspsps5

Down — $453.25

+$38.86

Hsilverbasher

Down — $460.95

+$248.27

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$143.33

GoodFallen

Down — $379.87

+$67.27

asdcaxz

Down — $339.79

+$49.63

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $300

+$324.01

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down — $245.05

+$46.81

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