Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$61.47

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 36 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,896

Combined PnL+$519.71

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,314

Combined PnL-$458.24

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 54.6¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$210.59	75% 273-92 (365)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 68.8¢	$707.64	$704.88	-$2.76	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
machinelearned	Downavg 76.2¢	$414.8	$491.6	+$76.8	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 88.2¢	$412.73	$445.98	+$33.24	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$396	$400	+$4	48% 10624-11292 (21916)
pspspsps5	Downavg 93.3¢	$399.37	$391.66	-$7.71	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 71.2¢	$239.25	$293.94	+$54.68	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 44.2¢	$153.29	$259.24	+$105.95	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 88.1¢	$203.64	$228.21	+$24.57	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Upavg 47.7¢	$207.5	—	-$207.5	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
BossgirlARB<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$447.34	$64.21	-$383.14	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$393.89	—	-$393.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.2¢	$53.45	$64.21	+$10.76
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 69¢	$153.38	$163.74	+$10.36	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 69.3¢	$110.19	$133.37	+$23.18	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 87.2¢	$135.67	$123.98	-$11.69	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
ST stepahead	Downavg 85.4¢	$136.88	$96	-$40.88	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$77.03	$90	+$12.97	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$34.84	$45.55	+$10.71	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$44.06	$56.61	+$12.55	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 86.8¢	$45.49	$35.89	-$9.61	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 80.2¢	$35.41	$44.14	+$8.73	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 94.9¢	$33.52	$30	-$3.52	63% 42458-25196 (67654)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 88¢	$21.71	$24.67	+$2.96	74% 105089-37085 (142174)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$18.57	$21.41	+$2.84	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$18.2	—	-$18.2	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 76¢	$13.67	$16.05	+$2.37	58% 63329-46540 (109869)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$1,579.29

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$210.59

Record

75%

273-92 (365)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$707.64

Value

$704.88

PnL

-$2.76

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$414.8

Value

$491.6

PnL

+$76.8

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$412.73

Value

$445.98

PnL

+$33.24

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$396

Value

$400

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

10624-11292 (21916)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$399.37

Value

$391.66

PnL

-$7.71

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$239.25

Value

$293.94

PnL

+$54.68

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$153.29

Value

$259.24

PnL

+$105.95

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$203.64

Value

$228.21

PnL

+$24.57

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Invested

$207.5

Value

—

PnL

-$207.5

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

BossgirlARB<$100

Invested

$447.34

Value

$64.21

PnL

-$383.14

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

Both legs:

Up$393.8962.5¢-$393.89

Down$53.4583.2¢+$10.76

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$153.38

Value

$163.74

PnL

+$10.36

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$110.19

Value

$133.37

PnL

+$23.18

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$135.67

Value

$123.98

PnL

-$11.69

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$136.88

Value

$96

PnL

-$40.88

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$77.03

Value

$90

PnL

+$12.97

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$34.84

Value

$45.55

PnL

+$10.71

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$44.06

Value

$56.61

PnL

+$12.55

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$45.49

Value

$35.89

PnL

-$9.61

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$35.41

Value

$44.14

PnL

+$8.73

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$33.52

Value

$30

PnL

-$3.52

Record

63%

42458-25196 (67654)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$21.71

Value

$24.67

PnL

+$2.96

Record

74%

105089-37085 (142174)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$18.57

Value

$21.41

PnL

+$2.84

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

—

PnL

-$18.2

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$13.67

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$2.37

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 36 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x51135358...5d53ba

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794017700

Traders in this Market

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $1.8K

+$210.59

1000monkeys

Down — $704.88

-$2.76

machinelearned

Down — $491.6

+$76.8

CrouchPredictions

Down — $445.98

+$33.24

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $400

+$4

pspspsps5

Down — $391.66

-$7.71

ply-pm0

Down — $293.94

+$54.68

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $259.24

+$105.95

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $228.21

+$24.57

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

CTR

Up — $0

-$207.5

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