Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$371.3

Smart Money Signal

28 of 37 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up28 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,097

Combined PnL+$556.55

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares765

Combined PnL-$185.25

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 73.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$63.96	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.7¢	$845.64	$901.78	+$56.14	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 65.1¢	$383.34	$366.86	-$16.48	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 70.3¢	$374.7	$423.36	+$48.67	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$349.58	$401.5	+$51.92	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.9¢	$252.67	$401.5	+$148.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.8¢	$96.91	—	-$96.91
machinelearned	Upavg 68¢	$220.09	$270.95	+$50.86	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
Bossgirl	Upavg 69.4¢	$294.11	$424	+$129.89	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 71.1¢	$197.05	$238.07	+$41.03	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.9¢	$183.69	$202.03	+$18.34	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
ST stepahead	Upavg 67.7¢	$174.03	$212	+$37.97	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 63.4¢	$141.19	$128.94	-$12.25	57% 9930-7432 (17362)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 33.8¢	$128.92	$82.65	-$46.27	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.8¢	$70.66	—	-$70.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.5¢	$58.27	$82.65	+$24.38
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 24.8¢	$85.03	—	-$85.03	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 82.2¢	$105.16	$116.63	+$11.47	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489<$100	Upavg 83.9¢	$88.09	$90	+$1.91	75% 273-92 (365)
13 13897651	Upavg 56.2¢	$66.94	$119.17	+$52.24	56% 8820-6894 (15714)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 64.4¢	$76.33	$72.3	-$4.03	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$50.18	$66.27	+$16.09	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$75.49	$90.13	+$14.64	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 26.6¢	$69.37	$30	-$39.37	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.6¢	$49.27	—	-$49.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$20.1	$30	+$9.9
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 77¢	$43.07	$55.9	+$12.83	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$44.31	$54.44	+$10.13	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 68¢	$30.47	$34.36	+$3.89	49% 4190-4292 (8482)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$40.67	$52.63	+$11.96	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$24	—	-$24	12% 18918-134175 (153093)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,044.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$63.96

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

ply-pm0

Invested

$845.64

Value

$901.78

PnL

+$56.14

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$383.34

Value

$366.86

PnL

-$16.48

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

Bonereaper

Invested

$374.7

Value

$423.36

PnL

+$48.67

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$349.58

Value

$401.5

PnL

+$51.92

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

Both legs:

Up$252.6762.9¢+$148.83

Down$96.9131.8¢-$96.91

machinelearned

Invested

$220.09

Value

$270.95

PnL

+$50.86

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

Bossgirl

Invested

$294.11

Value

$424

PnL

+$129.89

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

GoodFallen

Invested

$197.05

Value

$238.07

PnL

+$41.03

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

blue.birds

Invested

$183.69

Value

$202.03

PnL

+$18.34

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

stepahead

Invested

$174.03

Value

$212

PnL

+$37.97

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

wzbbb

Invested

$141.19

Value

$128.94

PnL

-$12.25

Record

57%

9930-7432 (17362)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$128.92

Value

$82.65

PnL

-$46.27

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

Both legs:

Down$70.6633.8¢-$70.66

Up$58.2770.5¢+$24.38

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$85.03

Value

—

PnL

-$85.03

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$105.16

Value

$116.63

PnL

+$11.47

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489<$100

Invested

$88.09

Value

$90

PnL

+$1.91

Record

75%

273-92 (365)

13897651

Invested

$66.94

Value

$119.17

PnL

+$52.24

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$76.33

Value

$72.3

PnL

-$4.03

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$50.18

Value

$66.27

PnL

+$16.09

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$75.49

Value

$90.13

PnL

+$14.64

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$69.37

Value

$30

PnL

-$39.37

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

Both legs:

Down$49.2726.6¢-$49.27

Up$20.167¢+$9.9

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$43.07

Value

$55.9

PnL

+$12.83

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$44.31

Value

$54.44

PnL

+$10.13

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$30.47

Value

$34.36

PnL

+$3.89

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$40.67

Value

$52.63

PnL

+$11.96

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24

Value

—

PnL

-$24

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

Smart Money Signal

28 of 37 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf3d6b7f9...f1714f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794017400

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.1K

+$63.96

ply-pm0

Up — $901.78

+$56.14

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $366.86

-$16.48

Bonereaper

Up — $423.36

+$48.67

1000monkeys

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$51.92

machinelearned

Up — $270.95

+$50.86

Bossgirl

Up — $424

+$129.89

GoodFallen

Up — $238.07

+$41.03

blue.birds

Up — $202.03

+$18.34

stepahead

Up — $212

+$37.97

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