Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Signal

23 of 32 top traders (72%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,987

Combined PnL$-5.7K

Up23 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,482

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down — 28%Up — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$7.8K	—	$-5.0K	53% 8286-7256 (15542)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 50.5¢	$591.08	$1.0K	+$436.23	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$834.19	$842.62	+$8.43	56% 30404-23643 (54047)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$854.35	$963.99	+$109.64	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.3¢	$590.79	$963.99	+$373.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$263.56	—	-$263.56
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 66.8¢	$652.21	$838.26	+$186.05	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$495.31	$610.88	+$115.56	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$308.11	$610.88	+$302.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$187.2	—	-$187.2
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59.4¢	$403.94	$464.43	+$60.5	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 42¢	$178.79	$425.59	+$246.8	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
pspspsps5	Upavg 52.4¢	$263.18	$502.18	+$239	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 61.2¢	$202.11	$211.99	+$9.88	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.2¢	$129.68	$211.99	+$82.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$72.43	—	-$72.43
AL almachCTR	Downavg 52.2¢	$228.53	—	-$228.53	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$172.05	$240	+$67.95	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$108.75	$240	+$131.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.4¢	$63.31	—	-$63.31
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$204.48	$233.51	+$29.02	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$154.6	$233.51	+$78.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.5¢	$49.88	—	-$49.88
ST stepahead	Upavg 59.1¢	$198.62	$336	+$137.38	54% 10144-8498 (18642)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 55¢	$187.79	—	-$187.79	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 59.2¢	$163.66	$149.99	-$13.67	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
BossgirlARB<$100	Downavg 59¢	$167.64	$70	-$97.64	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$106.85	—	-$106.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.8¢	$60.79	$70	+$9.21
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 53.2¢	$114.43	$100	-$14.43	52% 10448-9456 (19904)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.2¢	$75.43	—	-$75.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$39	$100	+$61
NIULAI4	Upavg 88.7¢	$190.79	$214.99	+$24.2	75% 9893-3307 (13200)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 43.9¢	$85.82	$181.5	+$95.68	52% 10562-9905 (20467)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$113.88	$67.41	-$46.47	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$62.75	—	-$62.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.8¢	$51.13	$67.41	+$16.28
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 52¢	$153.54	—	-$153.54	55% 52363-42830 (95193)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 59¢	$74.43	$126.04	+$51.61	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 57.6¢	$36.44	$63.24	+$26.8	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 51¢	$29.04	$40	+$10.96	56% 60575-47128 (107703)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$7,805

Value

—

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

53%

8286-7256 (15542)

ply-pm0

Invested

$591.08

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$436.23

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

THG.

Invested

$834.19

Value

$842.62

PnL

+$8.43

Record

56%

30404-23643 (54047)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$854.35

Value

$963.99

PnL

+$109.64

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

Both legs:

Up$590.7961.3¢+$373.19

Down$263.5641.4¢-$263.56

Bonereaper

Invested

$652.21

Value

$838.26

PnL

+$186.05

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$495.31

Value

$610.88

PnL

+$115.56

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

Both legs:

Up$308.1150.4¢+$302.76

Down$187.244.9¢-$187.2

GoodFallen

Invested

$403.94

Value

$464.43

PnL

+$60.5

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$178.79

Value

$425.59

PnL

+$246.8

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

pspspsps5

Invested

$263.18

Value

$502.18

PnL

+$239

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$202.11

Value

$211.99

PnL

+$9.88

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

Both legs:

Up$129.6861.2¢+$82.31

Down$72.4345.9¢-$72.43

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$228.53

Value

—

PnL

-$228.53

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$172.05

Value

$240

PnL

+$67.95

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

Both legs:

Up$108.7545.3¢+$131.25

Down$63.3154.4¢-$63.31

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$204.48

Value

$233.51

PnL

+$29.02

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

Both legs:

Up$154.666.2¢+$78.91

Down$49.8847.5¢-$49.88

stepahead

Invested

$198.62

Value

$336

PnL

+$137.38

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$187.79

Value

—

PnL

-$187.79

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$163.66

Value

$149.99

PnL

-$13.67

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

BossgirlARB<$100

Down

Invested

$167.64

Value

$70

PnL

-$97.64

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

Both legs:

Down$106.8559¢-$106.85

Up$60.7986.8¢+$9.21

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.43

Value

$100

PnL

-$14.43

Record

52%

10448-9456 (19904)

Both legs:

Down$75.4353.2¢-$75.43

Up$3939¢+$61

NIULAI4

Invested

$190.79

Value

$214.99

PnL

+$24.2

Record

75%

9893-3307 (13200)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$85.82

Value

$181.5

PnL

+$95.68

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$113.88

Value

$67.41

PnL

-$46.47

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

Both legs:

Down$62.7550.1¢-$62.75

Up$51.1375.8¢+$16.28

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$153.54

Value

—

PnL

-$153.54

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

antsaslyku

Invested

$74.43

Value

$126.04

PnL

+$51.61

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$36.44

Value

$63.24

PnL

+$26.8

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$29.04

Value

$40

PnL

+$10.96

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 32 top traders (72%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5eac4039...da764e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794016500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-5.0K

ply-pm0

Up — $1.0K

+$436.23

THG.

Up — $842.62

+$8.43

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$109.64

Bonereaper

Up — $838.26

+$186.05

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$115.56

GoodFallen

Up — $464.43

+$60.5

CrouchPredictions

Up — $425.59

+$246.8

pspspsps5

Up — $502.18

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Arbitrage — excluded