Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$142.37

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 35 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,094

Combined PnL+$297.26

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares983

Combined PnL-$154.89

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 84.9¢	$667.4	$734.84	+$67.44	56% 15898-12511 (28409)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 74.5¢	$455.8	$455.7	-$0.1	59% 11289-7746 (19035)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$396	$400	+$4	48% 10610-11273 (21883)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 86.2¢	$341.7	$334.22	-$7.49	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 89.3¢	$325.83	$330.17	+$4.34	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 78.6¢	$192.69	$192.03	-$0.66	54% 16571-14006 (30577)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 57.4¢	$129	$218.84	+$89.83	52% 10553-9896 (20449)
Bossgirl	Downavg 87.7¢	$194.76	$222	+$27.24	54% 4760-4011 (8771)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 83.2¢	$209.67	$166.35	-$43.32	66% 101027-52913 (153940)
BO bosona	Downavg 77.4¢	$103.46	$124	+$20.54	55% 51695-42149 (93844)
AL almach	Downavg 76¢	$101.68	$124	+$22.32	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 71.5¢	$94.44	$118.77	+$24.33	55% 14950-12418 (27368)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 77.6¢	$93.14	$100.46	+$7.32	54% 13670-11687 (25357)
ST stepahead<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$62.01	$72	+$9.99	54% 10136-8487 (18623)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 60¢	$45.76	$74.61	+$28.85	53% 10442-9444 (19886)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 81.3¢	$67.17	$50	-$17.18	52% 21108-19265 (40373)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.3¢	$40.64	$50	+$9.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 19¢	$26.54	—	-$26.54
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 89.6¢	$73.31	$65.1	-$8.21	55% 9852-8159 (18011)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 78¢	$55.8	$62	+$6.2	55% 52350-42822 (95172)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$32.4	—	-$32.4	12% 18915-134167 (153082)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 12.8¢	$48.21	—	-$48.21	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96.3¢	$43.56	$43	-$0.56	61% 98614-62609 (161223)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$34.52	$43.57	+$9.05	56% 77408-59804 (137212)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 14.5¢	$37.6	—	-$37.6	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$35.14	$40.52	+$5.38	57% 9923-7422 (17345)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 96¢	$31.6	$30.94	-$0.66	66% 130591-67529 (198120)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$667.4

Value

$734.84

PnL

+$67.44

Record

56%

15898-12511 (28409)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$455.8

Value

$455.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

59%

11289-7746 (19035)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$396

Value

$400

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

10610-11273 (21883)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$341.7

Value

$334.22

PnL

-$7.49

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$325.83

Value

$330.17

PnL

+$4.34

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$192.69

Value

$192.03

PnL

-$0.66

Record

54%

16571-14006 (30577)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$129

Value

$218.84

PnL

+$89.83

Record

52%

10553-9896 (20449)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$194.76

Value

$222

PnL

+$27.24

Record

54%

4760-4011 (8771)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$209.67

Value

$166.35

PnL

-$43.32

Record

66%

101027-52913 (153940)

bosona

Down

Invested

$103.46

Value

$124

PnL

+$20.54

Record

55%

51695-42149 (93844)

almach

Down

Invested

$101.68

Value

$124

PnL

+$22.32

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$94.44

Value

$118.77

PnL

+$24.33

Record

55%

14950-12418 (27368)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$93.14

Value

$100.46

PnL

+$7.32

Record

54%

13670-11687 (25357)

stepahead<$100

Down

Invested

$62.01

Value

$72

PnL

+$9.99

Record

54%

10136-8487 (18623)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$45.76

Value

$74.61

PnL

+$28.85

Record

53%

10442-9444 (19886)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$67.17

Value

$50

PnL

-$17.18

Record

52%

21108-19265 (40373)

Both legs:

Down$40.6481.3¢+$9.36

Up$26.5419¢-$26.54

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$73.31

Value

$65.1

PnL

-$8.21

Record

55%

9852-8159 (18011)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$55.8

Value

$62

PnL

+$6.2

Record

55%

52350-42822 (95172)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$32.4

Value

—

PnL

-$32.4

Record

12%

18915-134167 (153082)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$48.21

Value

—

PnL

-$48.21

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$43.56

Value

$43

PnL

-$0.56

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$34.52

Value

$43.57

PnL

+$9.05

Record

56%

77408-59804 (137212)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$37.6

Value

—

PnL

-$37.6

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$35.14

Value

$40.52

PnL

+$5.38

Record

57%

9923-7422 (17345)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$31.6

Value

$30.94

PnL

-$0.66

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 35 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x67408c31...67f2a9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794013500

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $734.84

+$67.44

1000monkeys

Down — $455.7

-$0.1

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $400

+$4

ply-pm0

Down — $334.22

-$7.49

asdcaxz

Down — $330.17

+$4.34

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $192.03

-$0.66

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down — $218.84

+$89.83

Bossgirl

Down — $222

+$27.24

Bonereaper

Down — $166.35

-$43.32

bosona

Down — $124

+$20.54

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