Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

20 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Up (69%) · Up at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Up99¢Down1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$414.24

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 98.5¢

+13% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,379

Combined PnL-$283

Down9 traders

Total Value$119.02

Total Shares818

Combined PnL-$131.24

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 85.8¢	$370.02	$362.98	-$7.04	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 97.1¢	$396.52	$292.17	-$104.35	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 81.9¢	$295.33	$291.29	-$4.04	66% 101027-52913 (153940)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 88.4¢	$310.66	$273.49	-$37.17	56% 15898-12511 (28409)
pspspsps5	Upavg 85.2¢	$200.1	$172.79	-$27.32	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 76.5¢	$167.08	$135.34	-$31.74	59% 11289-7746 (19035)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 88.1¢	$132.32	$124.02	-$8.29	55% 14950-12418 (27368)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 72.8¢	$117.19	$114.96	-$2.22	54% 16571-14006 (30577)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.8¢	$64.36	$74.66	+$10.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.3¢	$52.83	$40.3	-$12.53
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 84.4¢	$99.96	$100.08	+$0.13	57% 9923-7422 (17345)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 94.6¢	$87.27	$86.22	-$1.05	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 98¢	$87.42	$62	-$25.42	55% 51695-42149 (93844)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 98¢	$87.42	$62	-$25.42	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 84.1¢	$46.92	$44.63	-$2.3	63% 42447-25170 (67617)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 87.5¢	$43.74	$42.25	-$1.49	56% 60559-47106 (107665)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 71.3¢	$40.95	$40.72	-$0.23	52% 10553-9896 (20449)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 80.3¢	$34.07	$35.87	+$1.8	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 90.6¢	$37.82	$35.5	-$2.31	61% 46098-29272 (75370)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 32.5¢	$88.05	$33.82	-$54.23	55% 9852-8159 (18011)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 88.7¢	$35.9	$32.36	-$3.54	30% 12179-28146 (40325)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 80¢	$29.66	$31.7	+$2.04	49% 4183-4283 (8466)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 91.3¢	$35.74	$31.34	-$4.41	65% 130293-70158 (200451)
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$62.59	$28.4	-$34.19	54% 10136-8487 (18623)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Downavg 12.5¢	$23.46	$24.71	+$1.25	52% 21108-19265 (40373)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 24.1¢	$59.34	$23.24	-$36.1	54% 13670-11687 (25357)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 89.7¢	$14.67	$13.82	-$0.85	61% 98614-62609 (161223)

asdcaxz

Invested

$370.02

Value

$362.98

PnL

-$7.04

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

ply-pm0

Invested

$396.52

Value

$292.17

PnL

-$104.35

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

Bonereaper

Invested

$295.33

Value

$291.29

PnL

-$4.04

Record

66%

101027-52913 (153940)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$310.66

Value

$273.49

PnL

-$37.17

Record

56%

15898-12511 (28409)

pspspsps5

Invested

$200.1

Value

$172.79

PnL

-$27.32

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

1000monkeys

Invested

$167.08

Value

$135.34

PnL

-$31.74

Record

59%

11289-7746 (19035)

GoodFallen

Invested

$132.32

Value

$124.02

PnL

-$8.29

Record

55%

14950-12418 (27368)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$117.19

Value

$114.96

PnL

-$2.22

Record

54%

16571-14006 (30577)

Both legs:

Up$64.3672.8¢+$10.31

Down$52.8320.3¢-$12.53

wzbbb

Invested

$99.96

Value

$100.08

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

9923-7422 (17345)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$87.27

Value

$86.22

PnL

-$1.05

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

bosona<$100

Invested

$87.42

Value

$62

PnL

-$25.42

Record

55%

51695-42149 (93844)

almach<$100

Invested

$87.42

Value

$62

PnL

-$25.42

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$46.92

Value

$44.63

PnL

-$2.3

Record

63%

42447-25170 (67617)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$43.74

Value

$42.25

PnL

-$1.49

Record

56%

60559-47106 (107665)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$40.95

Value

$40.72

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

10553-9896 (20449)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$34.07

Value

$35.87

PnL

+$1.8

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$37.82

Value

$35.5

PnL

-$2.31

Record

61%

46098-29272 (75370)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$88.05

Value

$33.82

PnL

-$54.23

Record

55%

9852-8159 (18011)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$35.9

Value

$32.36

PnL

-$3.54

Record

30%

12179-28146 (40325)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$29.66

Value

$31.7

PnL

+$2.04

Record

49%

4183-4283 (8466)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$35.74

Value

$31.34

PnL

-$4.41

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

stepaheadCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$62.59

Value

$28.4

PnL

-$34.19

Record

54%

10136-8487 (18623)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.46

Value

$24.71

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

21108-19265 (40373)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.34

Value

$23.24

PnL

-$36.1

Record

54%

13670-11687 (25357)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$14.67

Value

$13.82

PnL

-$0.85

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.