Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
24 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
30
Down 80%
$2.6K
$150.26
70.8¢ → 95.5¢
+35% since entry · 24 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
24 of 30 top traders (80%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 81.4¢ | $344.05 | $393.17 | +$49.12 | 56% 15898-12511 (28409) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.2¢ | $252.27 | $246.24 | -$6.03 | 66% 101027-52913 (153940) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74.6¢ | $239.8 | $229.68 | -$10.12 | 54% 16571-14006 (30577) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 60¢ | $230.73 | $222.36 | -$8.37 | 50% 6373-6381 (12754) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $396.53 | $209.22 | -$4.89 | 53% 8272-7248 (15520) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 86.4¢ | $182.63 | $149.95 | -$32.68 | 46% 40118-48047 (88165) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77.4¢ | $121.85 | $146.42 | +$24.57 | 51% 12098-11574 (23672) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 61.4¢ | $131.96 | $145.43 | +$13.47 | 59% 11289-7746 (19035) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 42.7¢ | $58.87 | $107.07 | +$48.21 | 47% 6557-7261 (13818) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $88.55 | $96.25 | +$7.69 | 52% 21108-19265 (40373) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $78 | $86.9 | +$8.9 | 55% 9852-8159 (18011) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $81.54 | $83.17 | +$1.63 | 53% 10442-9444 (19886) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $62.02 | $72.5 | +$10.48 | 55% 14950-12418 (27368) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $39.67 | $58 | +$18.33 | 63% 42447-25170 (67617) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $37.62 | $53.33 | +$15.71 | 65% 114590-61630 (176220) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $45 | $50 | +$5 | 54% 13670-11687 (25357) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $25.46 | $35.23 | +$9.77 | 55% 50160-41769 (91929) |
 BossgirlCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.8¢ | $30.11 | $28.28 | -$1.83 | 54% 4760-4011 (8771) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $17.18 | $27.97 | +$10.79 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $24 | $24.75 | +$0.75 | 52% 10553-9896 (20449) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $32.31 | $23.01 | -$9.3 | 56% 60559-47106 (107665) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $21 | $18.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 63311-46525 (109836) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $10.9 | $17.97 | +$7.07 | 55% 51695-42149 (93844) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 58.8¢ | $12.22 | $17.26 | +$5.04 | 61% 98614-62609 (161223) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $9.72 | $9.55 | -$0.17 | 49% 4183-4283 (8466) |
Invested
$344.05
Value
$393.17
PnL
+$49.12
Record
56%
15898-12511 (28409)
Invested
$252.27
Value
$246.24
PnL
-$6.03
Record
66%
101027-52913 (153940)
Invested
$239.8
Value
$229.68
PnL
-$10.12
Record
54%
16571-14006 (30577)
Invested
$230.73
Value
$222.36
PnL
-$8.37
Record
50%
6373-6381 (12754)
Invested
$396.53
Value
$209.22
PnL
-$4.89
Record
53%
8272-7248 (15520)
pspspsps5Invested
$182.63
Value
$149.95
PnL
-$32.68
Record
46%
40118-48047 (88165)
Invested
$121.85
Value
$146.42
PnL
+$24.57
Record
51%
12098-11574 (23672)
Invested
$131.96
Value
$145.43
PnL
+$13.47
Record
59%
11289-7746 (19035)
Invested
$58.87
Value
$107.07
PnL
+$48.21
Record
47%
6557-7261 (13818)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$88.55
Value
$96.25
PnL
+$7.69
Record
52%
21108-19265 (40373)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$78
Value
$86.9
PnL
+$8.9
Record
55%
9852-8159 (18011)
Invested
$81.54
Value
$83.17
PnL
+$1.63
Record
53%
10442-9444 (19886)
Invested
$62.02
Value
$72.5
PnL
+$10.48
Record
55%
14950-12418 (27368)
ohioism<$100Invested
$39.67
Value
$58
PnL
+$18.33
Record
63%
42447-25170 (67617)
Invested
$37.62
Value
$53.33
PnL
+$15.71
Record
65%
114590-61630 (176220)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$45
Value
$50
PnL
+$5
Record
54%
13670-11687 (25357)
Invested
$25.46
Value
$35.23
PnL
+$9.77
Record
55%
50160-41769 (91929)
BossgirlCTR<$100Invested
$30.11
Value
$28.28
PnL
-$1.83
Record
54%
4760-4011 (8771)
Invested
$17.18
Value
$27.97
PnL
+$10.79
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)
Invested
$24
Value
$24.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
52%
10553-9896 (20449)
Invested
$32.31
Value
$23.01
PnL
-$9.3
Record
56%
60559-47106 (107665)
Invested
$21
Value
$18.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
63311-46525 (109836)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$17.97
PnL
+$7.07
Record
55%
51695-42149 (93844)
Invested
$12.22
Value
$17.26
PnL
+$5.04
Record
61%
98614-62609 (161223)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.55
PnL
-$0.17
Record
49%
4183-4283 (8466)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Down — $393.17
Bonereaper
Down — $246.24
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $229.68
ply-pm0
Down — $222.36
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $209.22
pspspsps5
Down — $149.95
blue.birds
Down — $146.42
1000monkeys
Down — $145.43
asdcaxz
Down — $107.07
x-MoneyForWhiskas
Down — $96.25