Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 14 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

14 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (54%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$325.69

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 26 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,698

Combined PnL-$157.61

Up12 traders

Total Value$813.12

Total Shares957

Combined PnL-$168.08

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 61.6¢	$587.23	$482.1	-$105.12	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 54.3¢	$353.15	$409.74	+$56.59	54% 16571-14006 (30577)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$322.02	$271.16	-$50.86	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.1¢	$169.31	$167.78	-$1.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$152.71	$103.38	-$49.33
BL blue.birds	Upavg 78.4¢	$305.85	$258.77	-$47.08	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 46.2¢	$231.37	$230.42	-$0.96	59% 11289-7746 (19035)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.2¢	$130.36	$119.98	-$10.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.6¢	$101.02	$110.44	+$9.42
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 61.6¢	$309.75	$221.65	-$88.1	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$97.5	$113.1	+$15.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.6¢	$212.25	$108.55	-$103.71
NIULAI4	Upavg 95.5¢	$341.92	$200.12	-$141.8	75% 9887-3301 (13188)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$215.59	$193.62	-$21.97	66% 101027-52913 (153940)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$144.77	$110.24	-$34.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.2¢	$70.81	$83.38	+$12.57
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 48.5¢	$155.81	$150.03	-$5.77	55% 14950-12418 (27368)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$129.51	$131.04	+$1.52	54% 10136-8487 (18623)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$93.69	$96.84	+$3.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$35.82	$34.2	-$1.62
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 71.8¢	$100.26	$106.73	+$6.47	53% 10442-9444 (19886)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$104.46	$106.35	+$1.9	55% 9852-8159 (18011)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$53.43	$60.08	+$6.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.9¢	$51.03	$46.27	-$4.75
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 59¢	$65.99	$69.74	+$3.75	52% 21108-19265 (40373)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$35.4	$40.5	+$5.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$30.59	$29.24	-$1.35
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$55.3	$53.17	-$2.13	52% 10553-9896 (20449)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 94.3¢	$52.59	$46.57	-$6.03	49% 4183-4283 (8466)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 45.7¢	$16.07	$35.13	+$19.06	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$34.14	$32.88	-$1.27	58% 63311-46525 (109836)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$29.65	$28.64	-$1.01	49% 80989-84429 (165418)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$28.67	$27.36	-$1.3	57% 9923-7422 (17345)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 79.3¢	$20.63	$25.99	+$5.36	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 27.5¢	$20.96	$24.02	+$3.06	61% 98614-62609 (161223)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100	Downavg 43.8¢	$69.11	$21.05	-$48.06	56% 15898-12511 (28409)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$19.9	$19	-$0.9	56% 60559-47106 (107665)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$19.9	$17.8	-$2.1	63% 42447-25170 (67617)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$22.3	$17.8	-$4.5	61% 46098-29272 (75370)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$587.23

Value

$482.1

PnL

-$105.12

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$353.15

Value

$409.74

PnL

+$56.59

Record

54%

16571-14006 (30577)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$322.02

Value

$271.16

PnL

-$50.86

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

Both legs:

Down$169.3168.1¢-$1.53

Up$152.7148¢-$49.33

blue.birds

Invested

$305.85

Value

$258.77

PnL

-$47.08

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$231.37

Value

$230.42

PnL

-$0.96

Record

59%

11289-7746 (19035)

Both legs:

Up$130.3646.2¢-$10.38

Down$101.0252.6¢+$9.42

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$309.75

Value

$221.65

PnL

-$88.1

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

Both legs:

Down$97.559¢+$15.6

Up$212.2561.6¢-$103.71

NIULAI4

Invested

$341.92

Value

$200.12

PnL

-$141.8

Record

75%

9887-3301 (13188)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$215.59

Value

$193.62

PnL

-$21.97

Record

66%

101027-52913 (153940)

Both legs:

Up$144.7741.4¢-$34.53

Down$70.8158.2¢+$12.57

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$155.81

Value

$150.03

PnL

-$5.77

Record

55%

14950-12418 (27368)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$129.51

Value

$131.04

PnL

+$1.52

Record

54%

10136-8487 (18623)

Both legs:

Down$93.6950.8¢+$3.14

Up$35.8249.7¢-$1.62

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$100.26

Value

$106.73

PnL

+$6.47

Record

53%

10442-9444 (19886)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.46

Value

$106.35

PnL

+$1.9

Record

55%

9852-8159 (18011)

Both legs:

Down$53.4351.1¢+$6.65

Up$51.0346.9¢-$4.75

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$65.99

Value

$69.74

PnL

+$3.75

Record

52%

21108-19265 (40373)

Both legs:

Down$35.459¢+$5.1

Up$30.5934¢-$1.35

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$55.3

Value

$53.17

PnL

-$2.13

Record

52%

10553-9896 (20449)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$52.59

Value

$46.57

PnL

-$6.03

Record

49%

4183-4283 (8466)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$16.07

Value

$35.13

PnL

+$19.06

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.14

Value

$32.88

PnL

-$1.27

Record

58%

63311-46525 (109836)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$29.65

Value

$28.64

PnL

-$1.01

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.67

Value

$27.36

PnL

-$1.3

Record

57%

9923-7422 (17345)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$20.63

Value

$25.99

PnL

+$5.36

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$20.96

Value

$24.02

PnL

+$3.06

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$69.11

Value

$21.05

PnL

-$48.06

Record

56%

15898-12511 (28409)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19

PnL

-$0.9

Record

56%

60559-47106 (107665)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.9

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$2.1

Record

63%

42447-25170 (67617)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.3

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$4.5

Record

61%

46098-29272 (75370)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 26 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.