Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 84%
1 arb excluded
$11.0K
$56.21
Smart Money Signal
26 of 33 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$36.27 | 56% 30404-23643 (54047) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 74% 105078-37083 (142161) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$1.64 | 89% 29358-3557 (32915) |
SH Sharky6999 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $499.5 | $500 | +$0.5 | 98% 7654-185 (7839) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 62.8¢ | $235.92 | $354.21 | +$118.28 | 56% 15898-12511 (28409) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 78.3¢ | $444.47 | $327.46 | -$117.01 | 66% 101027-52913 (153940) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $329.83 | $330.16 | +$0.33 | 59% 63899-45032 (108931) |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 57.2¢ | $187.84 | $220.19 | +$32.36 | 59% 11289-7746 (19035) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 73.4¢ | $140.43 | $135.35 | -$5.08 | 54% 16571-14006 (30577) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 35.4¢ | $123.08 | — | -$123.08 | 50% 6373-6381 (12754) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 73.6¢ | $80.76 | $101.25 | +$20.48 | 52% 21108-19265 (40373) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 22.4¢ | $79.56 | $45.85 | -$33.71 | 47% 6557-7261 (13818) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.4¢ | $46.79 | — | -$46.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.5¢ | $32.77 | $45.85 | +$13.08 | |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 83.8¢ | $64.17 | $76.58 | +$12.41 | 54% 13670-11687 (25357) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $70.59 | $98.11 | +$27.51 | 55% 14950-12418 (27368) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $48.36 | $62 | +$13.64 | 55% 51695-42149 (93844) |
ST stepahead<$100 | Downavg 59.4¢ | $43.59 | $60.72 | +$17.13 | 54% 10136-8487 (18623) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.9¢ | $44.15 | $51.42 | +$7.27 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.2¢ | $67.39 | — | -$67.39 | 46% 40118-48047 (88165) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $34.99 | $44.86 | +$9.87 | 55% 50160-41769 (91929) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $37.03 | $63.14 | +$26.1 | 55% 9852-8159 (18011) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.8¢ | $28.64 | — | -$28.64 | 53% 10442-9444 (19886) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 86.4¢ | $39.77 | $24.6 | -$15.17 | 51% 12098-11574 (23672) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $19.31 | $31.41 | +$12.1 | 65% 114590-61630 (176220) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $29.47 | $53.41 | +$23.95 | 56% 8800-6875 (15675) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $25.98 | $41.63 | +$15.65 | 65% 130293-70158 (200451) |
Invested
$3,590.73
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$36.27
Record
56%
30404-23643 (54047)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
74%
105078-37083 (142161)
Invested
$1,636.36
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$1.64
Record
89%
29358-3557 (32915)
Invested
$499.5
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.5
Record
98%
7654-185 (7839)
Invested
$235.92
Value
$354.21
PnL
+$118.28
Record
56%
15898-12511 (28409)
Invested
$444.47
Value
$327.46
PnL
-$117.01
Record
66%
101027-52913 (153940)
Invested
$329.83
Value
$330.16
PnL
+$0.33
Record
59%
63899-45032 (108931)
Invested
$187.84
Value
$220.19
PnL
+$32.36
Record
59%
11289-7746 (19035)
Invested
$140.43
Value
$135.35
PnL
-$5.08
Record
54%
16571-14006 (30577)
Invested
$123.08
Value
—
PnL
-$123.08
Record
50%
6373-6381 (12754)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$80.76
Value
$101.25
PnL
+$20.48
Record
52%
21108-19265 (40373)
Invested
$79.56
Value
$45.85
PnL
-$33.71
Record
47%
6557-7261 (13818)
Both legs:
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$64.17
Value
$76.58
PnL
+$12.41
Record
54%
13670-11687 (25357)
Invested
$70.59
Value
$98.11
PnL
+$27.51
Record
55%
14950-12418 (27368)
Invested
$48.36
Value
$62
PnL
+$13.64
Record
55%
51695-42149 (93844)
Invested
$43.59
Value
$60.72
PnL
+$17.13
Record
54%
10136-8487 (18623)
Invested
$44.15
Value
$51.42
PnL
+$7.27
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$67.39
Value
—
PnL
-$67.39
Record
46%
40118-48047 (88165)
Invested
$34.99
Value
$44.86
PnL
+$9.87
Record
55%
50160-41769 (91929)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$37.03
Value
$63.14
PnL
+$26.1
Record
55%
9852-8159 (18011)
Invested
$28.64
Value
—
PnL
-$28.64
Record
53%
10442-9444 (19886)
Invested
$39.77
Value
$24.6
PnL
-$15.17
Record
51%
12098-11574 (23672)
Invested
$19.31
Value
$31.41
PnL
+$12.1
Record
65%
114590-61630 (176220)
Invested
$29.47
Value
$53.41
PnL
+$23.95
Record
56%
8800-6875 (15675)
Invested
$25.98
Value
$41.63
PnL
+$15.65
Record
65%
130293-70158 (200451)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $3.6K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.6K
Sharky6999
Down — $500
CrouchPredictions
Down — $354.21
Bonereaper
Down — $327.46
0x50f7
Down — $330.16
1000monkeys
Down — $220.19
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $135.35
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0