Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET

18 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Down (56%) · Down at 100¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 100¢

+49% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 32 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares14,267

Combined PnL-$344.94

Up14 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,905

Combined PnL-$673.37

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 64.6¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$467.92	53% 596-534 (1130)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 85.3¢	$2.9K	$1.9K	-$947.16	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$90.38	55% 9852-8159 (18011)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$711.67	$831.18	+$119.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$643.67	$433.79	-$209.89
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 67.5¢	$821.3	$1.1K	+$304.17	75% 268-91 (359)
10 1000monkeysCTR	Upavg 60.3¢	$850.91	$993.48	+$142.57	59% 11289-7746 (19035)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.2¢	$980.42	$861.44	-$118.98	54% 16571-14006 (30577)
Bossgirl	Downavg 61.2¢	$693.33	$855.35	+$162.02	54% 4760-4011 (8771)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 57.9¢	$675.68	$659.27	-$16.41	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.7¢	$586.02	$576.65	-$9.37	55% 14950-12418 (27368)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 63.2¢	$1.2K	$568.8	-$590.99	56% 15898-12511 (28409)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 65.4¢	$432.47	$434.63	+$2.17	54% 13670-11687 (25357)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$347.58	$363.37	+$15.79	52% 21108-19265 (40373)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$189.63	$269.46	+$79.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.8¢	$157.96	$93.91	-$64.05
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$729.47	$335.24	-$394.23	66% 101027-52913 (153940)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$129.82	$261.26	+$131.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.8¢	$599.65	$73.99	-$525.66
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 60.7¢	$332.29	$328.64	-$3.65	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 62.2¢	$266.59	$301.22	+$34.64	54% 10136-8487 (18623)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 71¢	$386.38	$284.29	-$102.09	53% 10442-9444 (19886)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 41.6¢	$248.05	$213.41	-$34.64	12% 18915-134167 (153082)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$200.49	$161.41	-$39.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.8¢	$47.56	$52	+$4.44
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 26.7¢	$248.3	$209.03	-$39.28	75% 9887-3301 (13188)
AL almach	Downavg 65.3¢	$182.65	$164.02	-$18.63	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 58.7¢	$377.85	$157.64	-$220.21	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 66.8¢	$135	$137.64	+$2.64	56% 8800-6875 (15675)
BO bosona	Downavg 64.3¢	$157.34	$133.99	-$23.35	55% 51695-42149 (93844)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Upavg 43.7¢	$80.86	$133.09	+$52.23	52% 10553-9896 (20449)
MO mo-money	Downavg 66.8¢	$100.28	$91.99	-$8.29	55% 52350-42822 (95172)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 45.1¢	$104.85	$87.91	-$16.94	57% 9923-7422 (17345)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$4,080.53

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$467.92

Record

53%

596-534 (1130)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$2,896.31

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$947.16

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,355.34

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$90.38

Record

55%

9852-8159 (18011)

Both legs:

Down$711.6764.6¢+$119.51

Up$643.6736.4¢-$209.89

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$821.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$304.17

Record

75%

268-91 (359)

1000monkeysCTR

Invested

$850.91

Value

$993.48

PnL

+$142.57

Record

59%

11289-7746 (19035)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$980.42

Value

$861.44

PnL

-$118.98

Record

54%

16571-14006 (30577)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$693.33

Value

$855.35

PnL

+$162.02

Record

54%

4760-4011 (8771)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$675.68

Value

$659.27

PnL

-$16.41

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$586.02

Value

$576.65

PnL

-$9.37

Record

55%

14950-12418 (27368)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$1,159.79

Value

$568.8

PnL

-$590.99

Record

56%

15898-12511 (28409)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$432.47

Value

$434.63

PnL

+$2.17

Record

54%

13670-11687 (25357)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$347.58

Value

$363.37

PnL

+$15.79

Record

52%

21108-19265 (40373)

Both legs:

Down$189.6354.5¢+$79.84

Up$157.9637.8¢-$64.05

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$729.47

Value

$335.24

PnL

-$394.23

Record

66%

101027-52913 (153940)

Both legs:

Down$129.8246¢+$131.44

Up$599.6560.8¢-$525.66

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$332.29

Value

$328.64

PnL

-$3.65

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$266.59

Value

$301.22

PnL

+$34.64

Record

54%

10136-8487 (18623)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$386.38

Value

$284.29

PnL

-$102.09

Record

53%

10442-9444 (19886)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$248.05

Value

$213.41

PnL

-$34.64

Record

12%

18915-134167 (153082)

Both legs:

Up$200.4941.6¢-$39.08

Down$47.5660.8¢+$4.44

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$248.3

Value

$209.03

PnL

-$39.28

Record

75%

9887-3301 (13188)

almach

Down

Invested

$182.65

Value

$164.02

PnL

-$18.63

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$377.85

Value

$157.64

PnL

-$220.21

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

13897651CTR

Invested

$135

Value

$137.64

PnL

+$2.64

Record

56%

8800-6875 (15675)

bosona

Down

Invested

$157.34

Value

$133.99

PnL

-$23.35

Record

55%

51695-42149 (93844)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Invested

$80.86

Value

$133.09

PnL

+$52.23

Record

52%

10553-9896 (20449)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$100.28

Value

$91.99

PnL

-$8.29

Record

55%

52350-42822 (95172)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$104.85

Value

$87.91

PnL

-$16.94

Record

57%

9923-7422 (17345)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 32 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.