Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 28%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$-6.5K

Smart Money Signal

9 of 30 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,036

Combined PnL$-6.7K

Down21 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,761

Combined PnL+$185.53

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.0K	—	$-6.3K	53% 8272-7248 (15520)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 96.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$30.74	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 62.1¢	$358.63	$387.78	+$29.15	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
machinelearned	Downavg 91.4¢	$369.62	$336.02	-$33.6	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 55.4¢	$282.49	$301.08	+$18.59	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 78.1¢	$310.51	$264	-$46.51	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 64¢	$170.87	$167.99	-$2.88	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 57.8¢	$119.69	$176.69	+$57	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 92¢	$158.48	$137	-$21.48	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 55.5¢	$89.25	$117.88	+$28.63	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 14.4¢	$95.1	—	-$95.1	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$108.47	$60.74	-$47.73	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$34.86	$60.74	+$25.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$73.61	—	-$73.61
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$56.89	$71.39	+$14.5	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77¢	$49.11	$63.8	+$14.69	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 50¢	$50.62	$101.24	+$50.62	65% 114575-61604 (176179)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 57.8¢	$68.45	—	-$68.45	56% 8793-6866 (15659)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 77.3¢	$51.68	$43.67	-$8.01	57% 9912-7415 (17327)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$47.99	—	-$47.99	49% 4171-4276 (8447)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$67.18	—	-$67.18	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$30.62	$49.77	+$19.15	61% 98591-62582 (161173)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$39.06	$30	+$20.94	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 29.4¢	$39.34	—	-$39.34	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 88.7¢	$22.18	$25	+$2.82	61% 46076-29253 (75329)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 86.8¢	$21.71	$25	+$3.29	58% 63285-46506 (109791)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 1.2¢	$6.54	—	-$6.54	59% 63890-45025 (108915)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$7,992

Value

—

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

53%

8272-7248 (15520)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,385.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30.74

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$358.63

Value

$387.78

PnL

+$29.15

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$369.62

Value

$336.02

PnL

-$33.6

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$282.49

Value

$301.08

PnL

+$18.59

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$310.51

Value

$264

PnL

-$46.51

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$170.87

Value

$167.99

PnL

-$2.88

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$119.69

Value

$176.69

PnL

+$57

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$158.48

Value

$137

PnL

-$21.48

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$89.25

Value

$117.88

PnL

+$28.63

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$95.1

Value

—

PnL

-$95.1

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$108.47

Value

$60.74

PnL

-$47.73

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$34.8657.4¢+$25.88

Up$73.6136.4¢-$73.61

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$56.89

Value

$71.39

PnL

+$14.5

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$49.11

Value

$63.8

PnL

+$14.69

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$50.62

Value

$101.24

PnL

+$50.62

Record

65%

114575-61604 (176179)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$68.45

Value

—

PnL

-$68.45

Record

56%

8793-6866 (15659)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$51.68

Value

$43.67

PnL

-$8.01

Record

57%

9912-7415 (17327)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

$47.99

Value

—

PnL

-$47.99

Record

49%

4171-4276 (8447)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$67.18

Value

—

PnL

-$67.18

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$30.62

Value

$49.77

PnL

+$19.15

Record

61%

98591-62582 (161173)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$39.06

Value

$30

PnL

+$20.94

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$39.34

Value

—

PnL

-$39.34

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$22.18

Value

$25

PnL

+$2.82

Record

61%

46076-29253 (75329)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$21.71

Value

$25

PnL

+$3.29

Record

58%

63285-46506 (109791)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$6.54

Value

—

PnL

-$6.54

Record

59%

63890-45025 (108915)

Smart Money Signal

9 of 30 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x1a2b2eef...45f740

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794005700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-6.3K

Bonereaper

Down — $1.4K

+$30.74

ply-pm0

Down — $387.78

+$29.15

machinelearned

Down — $336.02

-$33.6

asdcaxz

Down — $301.08

+$18.59

1000monkeys

Down — $264

-$46.51

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $167.99

-$2.88

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $176.69

+$57

CrouchPredictions

Down — $137

-$21.48

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $117.88

+$28.63

Trade on Polymarket