Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$-5.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 40 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares10,162

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Down20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,465

Combined PnL$-7.2K

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$7.8K	$6.1K	+$65.18	53% 8272-7248 (15520)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 19.4¢	$381.85	—	-$381.85	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 37¢	$949.32	—	-$949.32	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 37.2¢	$842.5	$1.3K	+$460.82	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 52.4¢	$869.32	—	-$869.32	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Downavg 60.3¢	$959.76	—	-$959.76	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 44.5¢	$654.02	—	-$654.02	75% 9876-3300 (13176)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 61.3¢	$754.72	—	-$754.72	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 60.2¢	$395.73	—	-$395.73	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
BO bosona	Upavg 15.3¢	$94.35	$577.24	+$482.89	55% 51695-42148 (93843)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 65.6¢	$647.55	—	-$647.55	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 28.3¢	$222.59	—	-$222.59	65% 114575-61604 (176179)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 52.5¢	$209.12	—	-$209.12	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
AL almach	Upavg 62.6¢	$294.64	$307.53	+$12.89	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 52.2¢	$270.18	$268.39	-$1.79	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$129.95	—	-$129.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$140.23	$268.39	+$128.16
10 1000monkeysCTR	Downavg 54.2¢	$263.09	—	-$263.09	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 56.4¢	$231.93	$262.82	+$30.89	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.4¢	$83.74	—	-$83.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$148.19	$262.82	+$114.63
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR	Downavg 68.8¢	$362.26	—	-$299.48	65% 130257-70136 (200393)
AS asdaefefCTR	Downavg 80¢	$109.16	—	-$109.16	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 74¢	$222.16	$195.07	-$27.09	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 25¢	$70.31	$200	+$129.69	51% 17654-17053 (34707)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 46.6¢	$118.92	$140.71	+$21.79	56% 60523-47081 (107604)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$202.4	$162.24	-$40.17	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.2¢	$118.77	$162.24	+$43.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.3¢	$83.63	—	-$83.63
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 29.5¢	$184.96	$383.51	+$198.55	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 83.5¢	$205.98	—	-$205.98	63% 42429-25148 (67577)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$7,765

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$65.18

Record

53%

8272-7248 (15520)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$381.85

Value

—

PnL

-$381.85

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$949.32

Value

—

PnL

-$949.32

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

ply-pm0

Invested

$842.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$460.82

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$869.32

Value

—

PnL

-$869.32

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

asdcaxzCTR

Down

Invested

$959.76

Value

—

PnL

-$959.76

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$654.02

Value

—

PnL

-$654.02

Record

75%

9876-3300 (13176)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$754.72

Value

—

PnL

-$754.72

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$395.73

Value

—

PnL

-$395.73

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

bosona

Invested

$94.35

Value

$577.24

PnL

+$482.89

Record

55%

51695-42148 (93843)

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$647.55

Value

—

PnL

-$647.55

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$222.59

Value

—

PnL

-$222.59

Record

65%

114575-61604 (176179)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$209.12

Value

—

PnL

-$209.12

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

almach

Invested

$294.64

Value

$307.53

PnL

+$12.89

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$270.18

Value

$268.39

PnL

-$1.79

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

Both legs:

Down$129.9546.9¢-$129.95

Up$140.2352.2¢+$128.16

1000monkeysCTR

Down

Invested

$263.09

Value

—

PnL

-$263.09

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$231.93

Value

$262.82

PnL

+$30.89

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$83.7436.4¢-$83.74

Up$148.1956.4¢+$114.63

drfc4eybh7i8CTR

Down

Invested

$362.26

Value

—

PnL

-$299.48

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

asdaefefCTR

Down

Invested

$109.16

Value

—

PnL

-$109.16

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$222.16

Value

$195.07

PnL

-$27.09

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

gansinimen

Invested

$70.31

Value

$200

PnL

+$129.69

Record

51%

17654-17053 (34707)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$118.92

Value

$140.71

PnL

+$21.79

Record

56%

60523-47081 (107604)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$202.4

Value

$162.24

PnL

-$40.17

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

Both legs:

Up$118.7773.2¢+$43.47

Down$83.6335.3¢-$83.63

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$184.96

Value

$383.51

PnL

+$198.55

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$205.98

Value

—

PnL

-$205.98

Record

63%

42429-25148 (67577)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 40 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd9f449db...b368e1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794005400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $6.1K

machinelearned

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $1.3K

+$460.82

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $0

asdcaxz

Down — $0

NIULAI4

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Down — $0

bosona

Up — $577.24

+$482.89

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