Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$-6.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 37 top traders (62%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,910

Combined PnL+$976.13

Down23 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,702

Combined PnL$-7.2K

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Upavg 69.5¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$494.52	53% 590-526 (1116)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 60.7¢	$3.0K	—	$-3.0K	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 89.8¢	$1.2K	$894.87	-$277.94	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.8¢	$803.73	$894.87	+$91.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$369.08	—	-$369.08
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$608.96	$690.63	+$81.66	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.3¢	$216.42	$690.63	+$474.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.4¢	$392.54	—	-$392.54
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 48¢	$748.93	—	-$748.93	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$729.4	$349.45	-$379.94	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$444.5	—	-$444.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.5¢	$284.89	$349.45	+$64.56
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 71¢	$240.99	—	-$240.99	55% 51681-42136 (93817)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 72.8¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 83.1¢	$501.57	$300.73	-$200.84	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.8¢	$101.74	$300.73	+$198.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.1¢	$399.83	—	-$399.83
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.3¢	$393.37	$333.11	-$60.25	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.4¢	$154.59	$333.11	+$178.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$238.77	—	-$238.77
Bossgirl	Upavg 70.8¢	$302.41	$427	+$124.59	54% 4760-4005 (8765)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 71¢	$317.27	—	-$317.27	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 56.9¢	$325.77	—	-$325.77	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$265.96	$222.77	-$43.19	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$134.37	$222.77	+$88.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$131.59	—	-$131.59
BL blue.birds	Upavg 60.7¢	$358.99	$354.84	-$4.14	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
BoneOhioCTR	Downavg 68.2¢	$204.71	—	-$204.71	74% 105052-37068 (142120)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 80¢	$116.76	—	-$116.76	55% 52205-42637 (94842)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 79.9¢	$130.29	—	-$130.29	55% 50160-41768 (91928)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$188.9	$230.66	+$41.76	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.8¢	$96.25	—	-$96.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.2¢	$92.65	$230.66	+$138.01
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$165.7	$43	-$122.7	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$136.75	—	-$136.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.3¢	$28.95	$43	+$14.05
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$90.44	—	-$90.44	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 65.5¢	$109.96	—	-$109.96	57% 9906-7412 (17318)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$57.88	—	-$57.88	56% 60501-47058 (107559)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 34.5¢	$73.76	$96.16	+$29.15	65% 130212-70100 (200312)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 83¢	$63.46	$69	+$5.54	55% 51651-42826 (94477)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$1,125.38

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$494.52

Record

53%

590-526 (1116)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$3,006.94

Value

—

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$1,172.81

Value

$894.87

PnL

-$277.94

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

Both legs:

Up$803.7389.8¢+$91.14

Down$369.0859.4¢-$369.08

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$608.96

Value

$690.63

PnL

+$81.66

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

Both legs:

Up$216.4231.3¢+$474.2

Down$392.5466.4¢-$392.54

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$748.93

Value

—

PnL

-$748.93

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$729.4

Value

$349.45

PnL

-$379.94

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

Both legs:

Down$444.548.8¢-$444.5

Up$284.8981.5¢+$64.56

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$240.99

Value

—

PnL

-$240.99

Record

55%

51681-42136 (93817)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,629.57

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$501.57

Value

$300.73

PnL

-$200.84

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Both legs:

Up$101.7433.8¢+$198.99

Down$399.8383.1¢-$399.83

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$393.37

Value

$333.11

PnL

-$60.25

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

Both legs:

Up$154.5946.4¢+$178.52

Down$238.7759.3¢-$238.77

Bossgirl

Invested

$302.41

Value

$427

PnL

+$124.59

Record

54%

4760-4005 (8765)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$317.27

Value

—

PnL

-$317.27

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$325.77

Value

—

PnL

-$325.77

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$265.96

Value

$222.77

PnL

-$43.19

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

Both legs:

Up$134.3760.3¢+$88.4

Down$131.5968.8¢-$131.59

blue.birds

Invested

$358.99

Value

$354.84

PnL

-$4.14

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

BoneOhioCTR

Down

Invested

$204.71

Value

—

PnL

-$204.71

Record

74%

105052-37068 (142120)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$116.76

Value

—

PnL

-$116.76

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$130.29

Value

—

PnL

-$130.29

Record

55%

50160-41768 (91928)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.9

Value

$230.66

PnL

+$41.76

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$96.2570.8¢-$96.25

Up$92.6540.2¢+$138.01

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$165.7

Value

$43

PnL

-$122.7

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

Both legs:

Down$136.7547.9¢-$136.75

Up$28.9567.3¢+$14.05

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$90.44

Value

—

PnL

-$90.44

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$109.96

Value

—

PnL

-$109.96

Record

57%

9906-7412 (17318)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.88

Value

—

PnL

-$57.88

Record

56%

60501-47058 (107559)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$73.76

Value

$96.16

PnL

+$29.15

Record

65%

130212-70100 (200312)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$63.46

Value

$69

PnL

+$5.54

Record

55%

51651-42826 (94477)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 37 top traders (62%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd6f7e77d...7f8bc9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794003900

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Up — $1.6K

+$494.52

ply-pm0

CTR

Down — $0

$-3.0K

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $0

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Arbitrage — excluded

bosona

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$60.25

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