Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

-$991.48

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares8,499

Combined PnL+$236.85

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,537

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 92.1¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$154.32	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 24.6¢	$991.55	—	-$991.55	56% 77387-59788 (137175)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1.13	75% 262-87 (349)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 83.1¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$143.07	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 72.1¢	$891.32	$965.47	+$74.15	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$924.66	$934	+$9.34	89% 29315-3554 (32869)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 20.3¢	$559.26	$382.53	-$176.73	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.3¢	$293.69	—	-$293.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.4¢	$265.58	$382.53	+$116.96
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 76.8¢	$715.15	$800	+$84.85	51% 17654-17053 (34707)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.8¢	$614	$800	+$186
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.8¢	$101.15	—	-$101.15
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$592.5	$503.23	-$89.27	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.7¢	$272.87	—	-$272.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$319.63	$503.23	+$183.6
cryingbabydicer87	Upavg 99.7¢	$598.2	$600	+$1.8	48% 10588-11259 (21847)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 66¢	$576.83	$555.76	-$21.07	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$366.94	$555.76	+$188.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.5¢	$209.89	—	-$209.89
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$432.36	$463.47	+$31.11	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.8¢	$108.48	—	-$108.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.9¢	$323.87	$463.47	+$139.6
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 73.8¢	$314.39	$291.25	-$23.14	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.5¢	$99.47	—	-$99.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.8¢	$214.92	$291.25	+$76.33
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 76.6¢	$380.29	$470.17	+$89.88	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.6¢	$360.1	$470.17	+$110.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 16¢	$20.18	—	-$20.18
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$268.39	$221.1	-$47.29	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.8¢	$89.77	—	-$89.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.8¢	$178.62	$221.1	+$42.48
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 64.2¢	$265.43	$302.5	+$37.07	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.2¢	$194.31	$302.5	+$108.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.3¢	$71.12	—	-$71.12
AS asdaefef	Upavg 78.8¢	$215.28	$194.56	-$20.72	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Downavg 36.3¢	$145.39	—	-$145.39	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$306.22	$304.03	-$2.19	59% 63890-45025 (108915)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 75.7¢	$166.73	$148.79	-$17.95	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.1¢	$54.09	—	-$54.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.7¢	$112.65	$148.79	+$36.14
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 87.4¢	$249.8	$275	+$25.2	56% 60523-47081 (107604)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$145.26	$134	-$11.26	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.5¢	$56.64	—	-$56.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$88.62	$134	+$45.38
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 9.6¢	$26.16	—	-$26.16	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
BossgirlARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$98.16	$145	+$46.84	54% 4760-4006 (8766)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$87.89	$145	+$57.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 13¢	$10.27	—	-$10.27
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 87.3¢	$181.63	$207.95	+$26.32	61% 46076-29253 (75329)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,996.29

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$154.32

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$991.55

Value

—

PnL

-$991.55

Record

56%

77387-59788 (137175)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$1,124.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.13

Record

75%

262-87 (349)

ply-pm0

Invested

$1,186.41

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$143.07

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$891.32

Value

$965.47

PnL

+$74.15

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

hoodquant

Invested

$924.66

Value

$934

PnL

+$9.34

Record

89%

29315-3554 (32869)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$559.26

Value

$382.53

PnL

-$176.73

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

Both legs:

Down$293.6920.3¢-$293.69

Up$265.5869.4¢+$116.96

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$715.15

Value

$800

PnL

+$84.85

Record

51%

17654-17053 (34707)

Both legs:

Up$61476.8¢+$186

Down$101.1513.8¢-$101.15

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$592.5

Value

$503.23

PnL

-$89.27

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

Both legs:

Down$272.8729.7¢-$272.87

Up$319.6363.5¢+$183.6

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$598.2

Value

$600

PnL

+$1.8

Record

48%

10588-11259 (21847)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$576.83

Value

$555.76

PnL

-$21.07

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

Both legs:

Up$366.9466¢+$188.81

Down$209.8940.5¢-$209.89

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$432.36

Value

$463.47

PnL

+$31.11

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

Both legs:

Down$108.4819.8¢-$108.48

Up$323.8769.9¢+$139.6

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$314.39

Value

$291.25

PnL

-$23.14

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$99.4726.5¢-$99.47

Up$214.9273.8¢+$76.33

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$380.29

Value

$470.17

PnL

+$89.88

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

Both legs:

Up$360.176.6¢+$110.06

Down$20.1816¢-$20.18

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$268.39

Value

$221.1

PnL

-$47.29

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

Both legs:

Down$89.7725.8¢-$89.77

Up$178.6280.8¢+$42.48

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$265.43

Value

$302.5

PnL

+$37.07

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

Both legs:

Up$194.3164.2¢+$108.19

Down$71.1231.3¢-$71.12

asdaefef

Invested

$215.28

Value

$194.56

PnL

-$20.72

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Down

Invested

$145.39

Value

—

PnL

-$145.39

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

0x50f7

Invested

$306.22

Value

$304.03

PnL

-$2.19

Record

59%

63890-45025 (108915)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$166.73

Value

$148.79

PnL

-$17.95

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

Both legs:

Down$54.0928.1¢-$54.09

Up$112.6575.7¢+$36.14

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$249.8

Value

$275

PnL

+$25.2

Record

56%

60523-47081 (107604)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$145.26

Value

$134

PnL

-$11.26

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

Both legs:

Down$56.6429.5¢-$56.64

Up$88.6266.1¢+$45.38

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.16

Value

—

PnL

-$26.16

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

BossgirlARB<$100

Invested

$98.16

Value

$145

PnL

+$46.84

Record

54%

4760-4006 (8766)

Both legs:

Up$87.8960.6¢+$57.11

Down$10.2713¢-$10.27

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$181.63

Value

$207.95

PnL

+$26.32

Record

61%

46076-29253 (75329)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x82ef730c...eedf27

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794004800

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $2.2K

+$154.32

uninformedfloww

CTR

Down — $0

-$991.55

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Up — $1.1K

+$1.13

ply-pm0

Up — $1.0K

-$143.07

CrouchPredictions

Up — $965.47

+$74.15

hoodquant

Up — $934

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$89.27

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $600

+$1.8

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