Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$334.27

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 35 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,433

Combined PnL+$239.79

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,437

Combined PnL-$574.05

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 94¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$78.69	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 82.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$42.18	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 83.4¢	$559.29	$586.11	+$26.82	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 74.3¢	$468.4	$499.01	+$30.6	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 80.1¢	$451.85	$466.22	+$14.37	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 77.8¢	$409.03	$463.27	+$54.24	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
machinelearned	Downavg 81.3¢	$419.52	$427.16	+$7.64	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 79.2¢	$295.14	$293.15	-$1.99	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 77.2¢	$292.5	$309.04	+$16.54	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
pspspsps5	Downavg 83.2¢	$265.92	$246.66	-$19.26	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 72.6¢	$208.77	$231.43	+$22.66	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 72.9¢	$123.38	$149.83	+$176.29	54% 13637-11679 (25316)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 81.1¢	$148.55	$151.94	+$3.39	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 28.1¢	$275.65	—	-$275.65	55% 50160-41768 (91928)
ST stepahead	Downavg 74¢	$135.28	$151.82	+$16.54	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$139.45	$168.15	+$28.7	56% 8764-6844 (15608)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.9¢	$99.04	$168.15	+$69.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.4¢	$40.41	—	-$40.41
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 76.3¢	$101.51	$104.72	+$4.34	65% 130212-70100 (200312)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$73.86	$81.79	+$7.93	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 23.2¢	$64.62	$40	-$24.62	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.2¢	$34.8	—	-$34.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.6¢	$29.82	$40	+$10.18
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 31.2¢	$73.95	$40	-$33.95	57% 9906-7412 (17318)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.1¢	$32.83	$40	+$7.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.2¢	$41.12	—	-$41.12
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$63.97	$68.02	+$4.17	61% 98563-62545 (161108)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 30¢	$166.4	—	-$166.4	55% 51681-42136 (93817)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98¢	$40.55	$41.38	+$0.83	89% 29269-3554 (32823)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 91.9¢	$37.75	$40	+$2.25	55% 51651-42826 (94477)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 84.2¢	$58.22	$36	-$22.22	55% 52205-42637 (94842)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,787.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$78.69

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,328.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$42.18

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$559.29

Value

$586.11

PnL

+$26.82

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$468.4

Value

$499.01

PnL

+$30.6

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$451.85

Value

$466.22

PnL

+$14.37

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$409.03

Value

$463.27

PnL

+$54.24

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$419.52

Value

$427.16

PnL

+$7.64

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$295.14

Value

$293.15

PnL

-$1.99

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$292.5

Value

$309.04

PnL

+$16.54

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$265.92

Value

$246.66

PnL

-$19.26

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$208.77

Value

$231.43

PnL

+$22.66

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$123.38

Value

$149.83

PnL

+$176.29

Record

54%

13637-11679 (25316)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$148.55

Value

$151.94

PnL

+$3.39

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

almachCTR

Invested

$275.65

Value

—

PnL

-$275.65

Record

55%

50160-41768 (91928)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$135.28

Value

$151.82

PnL

+$16.54

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$139.45

Value

$168.15

PnL

+$28.7

Record

56%

8764-6844 (15608)

Both legs:

Down$99.0458.9¢+$69.12

Up$40.4153.4¢-$40.41

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$101.51

Value

$104.72

PnL

+$4.34

Record

65%

130212-70100 (200312)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$73.86

Value

$81.79

PnL

+$7.93

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$64.62

Value

$40

PnL

-$24.62

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

Both legs:

Up$34.823.2¢-$34.8

Down$29.8274.6¢+$10.18

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$73.95

Value

$40

PnL

-$33.95

Record

57%

9906-7412 (17318)

Both legs:

Down$32.8382.1¢+$7.17

Up$41.1231.2¢-$41.12

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$63.97

Value

$68.02

PnL

+$4.17

Record

61%

98563-62545 (161108)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$166.4

Value

—

PnL

-$166.4

Record

55%

51681-42136 (93817)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$40.55

Value

$41.38

PnL

+$0.83

Record

89%

29269-3554 (32823)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$37.75

Value

$40

PnL

+$2.25

Record

55%

51651-42826 (94477)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$58.22

Value

$36

PnL

-$22.22

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 35 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9e163daa...d2fed6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794004500

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $1.7K

-$78.69

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.3K

-$42.18

ply-pm0

Down — $586.11

+$26.82

1000monkeys

Down — $499.01

+$30.6

asdcaxz

Down — $466.22

+$14.37

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $463.27

+$54.24

machinelearned

Down — $427.16

+$7.64

GoodFallen

Down — $293.15

-$1.99

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down — $309.04

+$16.54

pspspsps5

Down — $246.66

-$19.26

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