Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$387.38

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 28 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,541

Combined PnL+$118.65

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,717

Combined PnL-$506.03

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 96.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$25.83	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 70¢	$251.71	$276.95	+$25.24	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 38.2¢	$227.38	$170.2	-$57.19	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$105.45	$170.2	+$64.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.2¢	$121.94	—	-$121.94
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 90.6¢	$238.68	$175.25	-$63.43	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$163.25	$134.64	-$28.61	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.8¢	$81.85	$134.64	+$52.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$81.4	—	-$81.4
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Upavg 43.7¢	$119.74	—	-$119.74	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
pspspsps5	Downavg 62.3¢	$126.24	$105.63	-$20.61	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 65.9¢	$111.33	$129	+$17.67	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.9¢	$85.04	$129	+$43.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$26.29	—	-$26.29
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$90.64	$99.98	+$9.35	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$65.65	$68.51	+$2.86	54% 13637-11679 (25316)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 94.7¢	$67.95	$71.76	+$3.81	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$60.84	—	-$60.84	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$78.26	—	-$78.26	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 60¢	$60	$100	+$40	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 62¢	$46.48	$74.97	+$28.49	49% 4160-4265 (8425)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$44.94	$71.95	+$27.01	56% 8764-6844 (15608)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$39.65	$51.18	+$11.53	65% 130212-70100 (200312)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$31.72	$45	+$13.28	74% 105052-37068 (142120)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$32.54	$42.05	+$9.51	57% 9906-7412 (17318)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 30.8¢	$81.24	—	-$81.24	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 80.2¢	$20.04	$25	+$4.96	61% 46056-29221 (75277)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 1.3¢	$7.56	—	-$7.56	59% 63885-45013 (108898)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 38.4¢	$11.61	—	-$11.61	63% 42413-25111 (67524)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 12.1¢	$6.28	—	-$6.28	49% 80931-84364 (165295)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$3.96	—	-$3.96	52% 12307-11342 (23649)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$2,303.9

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$25.83

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$251.71

Value

$276.95

PnL

+$25.24

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$227.38

Value

$170.2

PnL

-$57.19

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$105.4562¢+$64.75

Up$121.9438.2¢-$121.94

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$238.68

Value

$175.25

PnL

-$63.43

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$163.25

Value

$134.64

PnL

-$28.61

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Both legs:

Down$81.8560.8¢+$52.79

Up$81.440.1¢-$81.4

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR

Invested

$119.74

Value

—

PnL

-$119.74

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$126.24

Value

$105.63

PnL

-$20.61

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$111.33

Value

$129

PnL

+$17.67

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

Both legs:

Down$85.0465.9¢+$43.96

Up$26.2938.4¢-$26.29

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$90.64

Value

$99.98

PnL

+$9.35

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$65.65

Value

$68.51

PnL

+$2.86

Record

54%

13637-11679 (25316)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$67.95

Value

$71.76

PnL

+$3.81

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Invested

$60.84

Value

—

PnL

-$60.84

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$78.26

Value

—

PnL

-$78.26

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$60

Value

$100

PnL

+$40

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$46.48

Value

$74.97

PnL

+$28.49

Record

49%

4160-4265 (8425)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$44.94

Value

$71.95

PnL

+$27.01

Record

56%

8764-6844 (15608)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$39.65

Value

$51.18

PnL

+$11.53

Record

65%

130212-70100 (200312)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$31.72

Value

$45

PnL

+$13.28

Record

74%

105052-37068 (142120)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$32.54

Value

$42.05

PnL

+$9.51

Record

57%

9906-7412 (17318)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$81.24

Value

—

PnL

-$81.24

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$20.04

Value

$25

PnL

+$4.96

Record

61%

46056-29221 (75277)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$7.56

Value

—

PnL

-$7.56

Record

59%

63885-45013 (108898)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$11.61

Value

—

PnL

-$11.61

Record

63%

42413-25111 (67524)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$6.28

Value

—

PnL

-$6.28

Record

49%

80931-84364 (165295)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

—

PnL

-$3.96

Record

52%

12307-11342 (23649)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 28 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xb830e5db...97b2d0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794003000

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $2.3K

+$25.83

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $276.95

+$25.24

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$57.19

ply-pm0

Down — $175.25

-$63.43

1000monkeys

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$28.61

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

CTR

Up — $0

-$119.74

pspspsps5

Down — $105.63

-$20.61

asdcaxz

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$17.67

GoodFallen

Down — $99.98

+$9.35

FairValueMachine

Down — $68.51

+$2.86

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